Guest Imperator Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 GGEM keeps showing a strong storm for next week. Not its ensembles http://meteocentre.com/models/get_ensemble.php?lang=fr&map=na&run=00&mod=cmc_geps&stn=PNM&hh=216 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Not its ensembles http://meteocentre.com/models/get_ensemble.php?lang=fr&map=na&run=00&mod=cmc_geps&stn=PNM&hh=216 Enjoy your rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Enjoy your rain. See edit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 The Nuri ET may be one of the strongest on record for so far north in the NPAC. It should really help to pump the ridge over WNAM and drive the PV south into Canada next week. The details will determine if the trough can dig enough into the GL for the first freeze of the season in NYC. ecmwf_mslp_uv850_wpac_5.png The Euro has Nuri pressure down to 916mb at 102hr. Not far the non-tropical low pressure record 913mb, for the Northern Hemisphere or entire earth: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/super-extratropical-storms-alaska-and-extratropical-record-low-baro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 First week of December showing up nicely on the CFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 A lot of promising stuff going forward. I did notice the AO/NAO forecasts a bit more negative also especially the AO. The NAO actually looks quite variable jumping from more positive to somewhat negative, which may be representative of the stormy pattern we'll be seeing. Everyone needs to be patient though when it comes to these OP runs because they will shift from day to day. The big picture is more important than every OP run and the trends are in our favor overall. Case in point the forecast above is a great way to start December when snow threats actually become legit. Next week still looks like we'll be seeing some strong cold shots get involved and potentially a couple of interesting systems as well. The cold has still been quite scarce and I've yet to hit freezing but that may change next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Rest of NOV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Not sure I put much stock into the CFS, only because wasn't it a mouth ago it was showing a warm solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Not sure I put much stock into the CFS, only because wasn't it a mouth ago it was showing a warm solution? Models are liable to correcting themselves my friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Not sure I put much stock into the CFS, only because wasn't it a mouth ago it was showing a warm solution? Its 30 days are fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Looks like the gfs is showing a more pronounced coastal storm early next week or end of the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 It's rain. But the 12z GFS has pretty sizeable Nor'easter for Sunday night: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Not sure I put much stock into the CFS, only because wasn't it a mouth ago it was showing a warm solution? Yeah it's just a quick glance. Not saying it's right or wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Looks like the gfs is showing a more pronounced coastal storm early next week or end of the weekend. The upgraded GFS doesnt have this feature. I think people should start referencing it, as it will be the operational GFS in a few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 It's rain. But the 12z GFS has pretty sizeable Nor'easter for Sunday night: Love seeing coastals in Autumn. Might bold well for us in the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 The upgraded GFS doesnt have this feature. I think people should start referencing it, as it will be the operational GFS in a few weeks. The "upgraded" GFS had this past weekends noreaster well east of the area for the 2 runs (6z and 0z) right before the storm. It obviously needs a tweak or 2. That's why it's still experimental. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 69 and spring like...we will top 70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 69 and spring like...we will top 70 We can always count on you to tell us when its warm outside! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 69 and spring like...we will top 70 Enjoy it because it will be gone really quick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 The "upgraded" GFS had this past weekends noreaster well east of the area for the 2 runs (6z and 0z) right before the storm. It obviously needs a tweak or 2. That's why it's still experimental. Im sure if the solutions were flipped Someone would be saying how the old GFS stinks and how they cant wait for the upgrade to become operational.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Im sure if the solutions were flipped Someone would be saying how the old GFS stinks and how they cant wait for the upgrade to become operational.... OK. But the situations aren't flipped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 OK. But the situations aren't flipped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Deep day 9 -10 trough on the 12z Euro . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salseneca Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 WIld to see the cold just keep re-charging and funneling back into the region. With no quick end in sight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 OK. But the situations aren't flipped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Enjoy it because it will be gone really quick It does look like today and tomorrow will be the last time it'll be that warm in a long time. It certainly won't turn frigid right away but things look to turn below normal by late this week and then perhaps way below next week. The real chill looks to be timed well with the AO dropping and also the typhoon recurving effects will if anything enhance the east coast troughing further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 The 12z ECMWF ensemble mean is a lot wetter than the op. Low pressure tracks right over the south shore of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 WPC still going with a nice soaking the next three days. Makes sense given the Euro ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Deep day 9 -10 trough on the 12z Euro . Within a week we should be in a deep trough, since the rule generally is 7-10 days after a typhoon recurve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Within a week we should be in a deep trough, since the rule generally is 7-10 days after a typhoon recurve. Check out the blocking over the top on day 10 thru 15 on the euro ensembles . Looks like the vortex gets traps and as a piece splits away spokes just pinwheel thru Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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