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November 2014

Rtd208

By Rtd208,
in New York City Metro

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TonyLovesSnow

TonyLovesSnow

Posted
Posted

There's no magical switch that's all the sudden make things favorable once we hit December. It's going to be a long wait before we have a chance at anything and the first half of the month looks shot.

That's ok though because historically it's the second half where the snow comes from.

what?????? We might get a snowstorm Wednesday what are you saying?
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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

Good to see the ensembles have a similar idea as the OP. I like the 0z putting of all the energy

in one basket instead of splitting between two systems. The ensemble is just a bit colder

to the east than the OP. But that's generally how things work between the OP and esnsemble

at 120 hrs. The important thing is that the ensemble signal for a potential event.

The UKMET shows the same thing now.

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/UKHEMI_0z/ukloop.html

 

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96blizz

96blizz

Posted
Posted

Good to see the ensembles have a similar idea as the OP. I like the 0z putting of all the energy

in one basket instead of splitting between two systems. The ensemble is just a bit colder

to the east than the OP. But that's generally how things work between the OP and esnsemble

at 120 hrs. The important thing is that the ensemble signal for a potential event.

get_legacy_plot-web248-20141122101009-26743-1211.gif

Indeed. Even the NWS Mt. Holly put a Facebook post up about the potential. Tricky situation for them given the amount of travel versus getting the info on potential out there without causing panic. Long way to go. Fun to be tracking so early in the season.
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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

Indeed. Even the NWS Mt. Holly put a Facebook post up about the potential. Tricky situation for them given the amount of travel versus getting the info on potential out there without causing panic. Long way to go. Fun to be tracking so early in the season.

 

I just like the idea that the two best models at this range have the storm.

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

The NAO was negative there, albeit very east based but better probably than what we'll have here.  I don't have the link for daily indices but thats a strong looking negative east based NAO with that low by the Azores, that may be a -1.5 - 2.0 or so.

 

 

 

I was talking about the Davis Strait area which didn't have enough blocking to prevent the first storm from

cutting a few days earlier. So it was on the first low to provide the cold, otherwise that second low would

have cut or tun right over us will all the blocking east based.

 

The first cutter set the table for the second event

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1995/us1128.php

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

I just like the idea that the two best models at this range have the storm.

Was typing as you posted. The UKMET moved into number 2 verification wise after its upgrade last year.

I like the pattern. It doesn't have to work out but I like the look

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

Was typing as you posted. The UKMET moved into number 2 verification wise after its upgrade last year.

I like the pattern. It doesn't have to work out but I like the look

 

I would just like the initial cutter early in week to leave the front far enough east so the second

low doesn't hug too closely.

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96blizz

96blizz

Posted
Posted

Was typing as you posted. The UKMET moved into number 2 verification wise after its upgrade last year.

I like the pattern. It doesn't have to work out but I like the look

Agreed. Someone posted a rather astute observation that we haven't needed a "perfect" setup for snow recently. The players are there on this one and seeing two majors (and the 12z GFS Para) have it at this range is solid.
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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

I would just like the initial cutter early in week to leave the front far enough east so the second

low doesn't hug too closely.

The euro ensembles are further east so I'm not to worried about the center over AC . If this can deepen we cool and snow.

To me the miss would be east not west.

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

The euro ensembles are further east so I'm not to worried about the center over AC . If this can deepen we cool and snow.

To me the miss would be east not west.

 

Yes, at this point both solutions are offshore it's just a matter of more or less tucked in.

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SACRUS

SACRUS

Posted
Posted

First cold snap was quite impressive for November.  10 days 11/13 - 11/22

 

NYC:

11/13: 48/36 (-7)

11/14: 42/36 (-9)

11/15: 42/33 (-10)

11/16: 45/35 (-8)

11/17: 52/40 (-1)

11/18 45/35 (-12)

11/19: 36/22 (-18)

11/20: 45/31 (-8)

11/21: 37/28 (-13)

11/22: 44/28 (-10)

 

EWR:

11/13:  48/35 (-6)

11/14: 44/34 (-8)

11/15: 44/29 (-10)

11/16: 44/29 (-10)

11/17: 49/29 (-2)

11/18: 44/23 (-12)

11/19: 33/21 (-19)

11/20: 47/26 (-8)

11/21: 38/24 (-14)

11/22: 45/23 (-11)

 

LGA:

11/13: 48/37 (-6)

11/14:  43/36 (-9)

11/15: 43/34 (-11)

11/16: 44/35 (-8)

11/17: 53/39 (-2)

11/18  46/24 (-13)

11/19: 35/22 (-18)

11/20: 46/32  (-8)

11/21: 37/28 (-13)

11/22: 44/29 (-9)

 

JFK:

11/13:  49/38 (-4)

11/14: 44/37 (-7)

11/15: 43/30 (-11)

11/16: 45/31 (-9)

11/17: 55/40 (+1)

11/18 46/25 (-11)

11/19: 37/23 (-17)

11/20: 48/32 (-6)

11/21: 38/28 (-13)

11/22: 44/26 (-11)

 

TTN:

11/13: 46/33 (-7)

11/14:  41/31 (-10)

11/15: 43/28 (-10)

11/16: 43/25 (-12)

11/17: 47/38 (-2)

11/18 43/22 (-12)

11/19:  32/19 (-19)

11/20:  47/25 (-8)

11/21: 36/24 (-14)

11/22: 43/19 (-13)

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Guest Pamela

Guest Pamela

Posted
Posted

Walpack went down to 5. Yes 5. That area is probably the coldest in NJ, with the pine barrens sometimes being a close second. Great radiational cooling as it sits at only 400-500ft with the surrounding areas up above 1,000-1,500ft. Here in NE Essex county I only dropped down to 23.

 

Walpack just a short distance to the southwest of Layton...which generally holds many of the extreme cold records for the state.  Being nestled in the Kittatinies allows it to drop lower than most everywhere else in the state.  The top of High Point probably holds the lowest maximum temperature for Jersey...but its too windy up there to approach any of the extreme minimums found down in the valleys. 

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Weathergun

Weathergun

Posted
Posted

 

18z NAM shows LGA 55kt winds at 950mb below the inversion tomorrow morning with some heavy rainfall:

 

2lsbln5.jpg

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