Heisy Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Talk about a buzzkill. Based on an 18z run? You got a lot to learn son ......Don't get your hopes up on this one, there is a ton going against it. Just be happy we have something to "track" in an unfavorable pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 With no blocking there is nothing to slow down that southern vort....Just need perfect timing. Exactly why this has a 90 percent chance of not happening. It literally has to define all odds. Only November, at least we got excited for a couple of hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 With no blocking there is nothing to slow down that southern vort....Just need perfect timing. Only thing we having going for us is the pac nw...to many things need to be perfect. We have had a active November for tracking...climo says we need to Waite until December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Talk about a buzzkill. Were you expecting 6 days of wire to wire snowstorm model runs ? Pls stop with this stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Were you expecting 6 days of wire to wire snowstorm model runs ? Pls stop with this stuff. Nope, im expecting nothing. Pattern does not support it at all. No blocking, nothing is going to stop this from sliding OTS which is what I suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Were you expecting 6 days of wire to wire snowstorm model runs ? Pls stop with this stuff. surprised the " toss it its the 18z GFS" card hasn't been played yet paul Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Most of our storms the last several winters have come from less than perfect setups. The fact that this "storm" is coming and going on models leads us to believe that there is a chance of it happening. Significant storms in general are always unlikely anyway. If they weren't, they wouldn't be "significant" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 We will need to pull an 11-29-95 for the first low to produce. That early week cutter must cool us down enough behind the front so the the first coastal can tap cold enough air for snow. It needs to go perfectly without blocking just like late November 1995. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1995/us1129.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 What? No "But it's the 18z GFS" comments? The real party starts in 4 hours. Then we'll see if we have a storm or if we don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 We will need to pull an 11-29-95 for the first low to produce. That early week cutter must cool us down enough behind the front so the the first coastal can tap cold enough air for snow. It needs to go perfectly without blocking just like late November 1995. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1995/us1129.php I'm not even looking at the NAO for me it's not that relevant I am focused on the ridge axis and timing. The models are going to need a few days to figure out wave separation and orientation . I think the frontal passage comes thru and stops. For me can the back side energy catch the southern stream. That's just timing and ridge position IMO. I like the pattern. it doesn't have to snow but I will b surprised if it doesn't . After that week 1 in Dec. Shirt sleeves up. The MJO will win out for a week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 The spread on the GFS individual ensembles is crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 The spread on the GFS individual ensembles is crazy IM GONNA SAY IT! toss it its the 18z GFS but seriously this storm has intrigued me and my interest has been peaked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 I'm not even looking at the NAO for me it's not that relevant I am focused on the ridge axis and timing. The models are going to need a few days to figure out wave separation and orientation . I think the frontal passage comes thru and stops. For me can the back side energy catch the southern stream. That's just timing and ridge position IMO. I like the pattern. it doesn't have to snow but I will b surprised if it doesn't . After that week 1 in Dec. Shirt sleeves up. The MJO will win out for a week or so. The chance is there for at least some measurable snow before the pattern moderates for the first week of December. Much better to get the warmer readings with less blocking early in December when the typical snowfall is lowest. December 19-31 has been the best time for significant snow events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 This is the part of the hobby I like tracking potential storms and watching patterns evolve sure I would like to snow but many many pieces have to fall into place . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 This will be a tough one, but we are so far away still. An 18z gfs run really means nothing. The spread is still huge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 The 18Z GFS MOS has temperatures increasing ten degrees from 00Z Monday to 12Z Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I'm not even looking at the NAO for me it's not that relevant I am focused on the ridge axis and timing. The models are going to need a few days to figure out wave separation and orientation . I think the frontal passage comes thru and stops. For me can the back side energy catch the southern stream. That's just timing and ridge position IMO. I like the pattern. it doesn't have to snow but I will b surprised if it doesn't . After that week 1 in Dec. Shirt sleeves up. The MJO will win out for a week or so. exactly good post - last year it was the persistent cold enough air when the storms came through with not much blocking at times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 We will need to pull an 11-29-95 for the first low to produce. That early week cutter must cool us down enough behind the front so the the first coastal can tap cold enough air for snow. It needs to go perfectly without blocking just like late November 1995. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1995/us1129.php The NAO was negative there, albeit very east based but better probably than what we'll have here. I don't have the link for daily indices but thats a strong looking negative east based NAO with that low by the Azores, that may be a -1.5 - 2.0 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 The 00z NAM is well over an inch of rain now for Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 The NAO was negative there, albeit very east based but better probably than what we'll have here. I don't have the link for daily indices but thats a strong looking negative east based NAO with that low by the Azores, that may be a -1.5 - 2.0 or so. the nao was pretty negative that month... 1995 11 25 -0.4621995 11 26 -0.5751995 11 27 -0.9341995 11 28 -0.7971995 11 29 -0.7591995 11 30 -0.6621995 12 1 -0.600 ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Dropping like a rock out here..upper teens/low 20s away from the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Dropping like a rock out here..upper teens/low 20s away from the city 15.4F here currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 24.5 here NE Essex county NJ. NJ highest temp at the moment : West Cape May 33 degrees NJ coldest temp at the moment : Walpack 11 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 25.5/20 here in Dobbs Ferry. Cold and clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 23 here currently... monthly departure at -4.4 degrees as of yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 was down to 23 now up to 26. I think the warm front came in. The one that broke down the western New York (south buffalo snow). From now until Tuesday afternoon it'll only warm. But nights are longer now so there's limited warmth and this is why I think that the Mondays system will be a more passive storm (faster but a bigger rainfall), with the potential system sneaking up on the east coast by Wednesday after the cold front has came in resulting frozen precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I don't think NYC goes warmer than 62 on Monday. It'll be raining longer than modeled. If it dries up in the morning than we can get some warmth late afternoon but I doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 14.4f here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 There's no magical switch that's all the sudden make things favorable once we hit December. It's going to be a long wait before we have a chance at anything and the first half of the month looks shot. That's ok though because historically it's the second half where the snow comes from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Over the river and through the woods to grandmother's house you will NOT be going says the euro at 0Z. About the best scenario you would want to see on the EC for late November . Wish we were inside 48 hours so patience will b required. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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