bluewave Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 It's a little bit of both. The timing and spacing differences between each shortwave, are really small. I wonder if the strong MJO wave is adding to the confusion with the busy pattern over the Pacific? Will be interesting to see if the push into 4 that the euro is showing leads to a moderation in temps for the first week of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 I wonder if the strong MJO wave is adding to the confusion with the busy pattern over the Pacific? Will be interesting to see if the push into 4 that the euro is showing leads to a moderation in temps for the first week of December. The euro takes the MJO around through 3 and into 4. Canada stays seeded and if the pac jet comes through I think this will just recycle so even if the 1st 10 days are above once we build back the PNA the cold should slide south and hopefully lock off for the 2 nd half of Dec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Great summary Earthlight. Agreed that alone makes me want to pay attention instead of just posting some random gfs run images. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 I'm starting to buy the Euro for the near TDay event solely because its been so insanely consistent and its not so much the sort of event the Euro has had tendencies to blowup the last few years. The second event that popped up today is classic post upgrade Op euro and the ensembles likely won't have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 The euro takes the MJO around through 3 and into 4. Canada stays seeded and if the pac jet comes through I think this will just recycle so even if the 1st 10 days are above once we build back the PNA the cold should slide south and hopefully lock off for the 2 nd half of Dec Yeah, you wouldn't expect a Nina looking pattern to persist very long with such a strong +PDO and an El Nino in progress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Euro Ensembles have some BIG hits. nice to see an the control has 3-5 areawide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Some also develop and BOMB out the second wave. wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Only about 7 of 51 Euro ensembles have a storm inside 40/70 BM, for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Only about 7 of 51 Euro ensembles have a storm inside 40/70 BM, for next week. I counted about 20 of the ensembles that show accumulating snow which is A lot more than before. Trends is what we need at this stage. Long ways to go, and some have huge hitters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Looks like too many vorts dueling for dominance for one big storm unless later runs change. Still in a high volatility range with all models and fluctuations whether they be small or large is expected. Until we are inside 120hrs gotta take this with a grain of salt IMO. The potential is they're possibly for our first widespread winter season snowstorm but many things can cause this to either shear out or cut if it phases too early (doubt that because the pacific flow isnt exaclty lagging its heels). sunday should be a very busy day in here if the models do start honing in on monster coastal storm. I know ive been lambasted by someone for saying hold off or something like that but this is a complex setup and one or two nuances can throw this off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 The 18z GFS OP is digging the energy further southwest this run, that's a good sign because it should slow the progression of the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 The 18z Parallel GFS is also digging the energy SW more than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Hour 102 18z GFS OP. The energy in the plains is dropping into the backside of the trough and phasing is occuring. The Euro was never able to accomplish this at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Isentropic, Agreed, there's more separation between the ULL over the Lakes and the SW around Texas, let's see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 The GFS OP is really amped up this run, the third piece is dropping in hour 111. Low forming right along the GA coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Meanwhile the 18z Parallel GFS is digging for Gold in Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 18z gfs is pretty far se of obx at hr 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Yup, not going to get it done this round, but it sure did give it the "Old College Try". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 hr 123 wide right on the 18z gfs…looks progressive this run..just some light preciep for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Yeah was gonna say, at 108 you could tell it was going to escape east, but it is pretty close. still wouldn't give up, the jet argues for a more NW track IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Any update on the PGFS? Tropicaltidbits won't load for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Any update on the PGFS? Tropicaltidbits won't load for me. It's a mess, it left a ton of energy behind down South. While certainly possible, the whole run looked odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 The key piece on the GFS is that shortwave just NW of the GL @ 108 hours, if that can dive down in time it would change everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 18z gfs ends up giving the coast some wet flakes wed night and light accumulations nw….sne gets a 1-3 event... 1008 goes outside the bm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 para gfs 18z is going to be nothing close to 12z……its a mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 para gfs 18z is going to be nothing close to 12z……its a mess Any northern branch action? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Any northern branch action? No, the energy digs to far southwest and becomes disjointed and left behind. Then the northern vort escapes and the southern vort goes way East. Toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Any northern branch action? the pac nw is completely diff and its keeping the northern stream disturbance dominate….its a complete whiff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Talk about a buzzkill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 With no blocking there is nothing to slow down that southern vort....Just need perfect timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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