Heisy Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Indeed looked like it attempted to do that, if it we would have our first glorified blizzard of the season in november! This place is gonna be a nuthouse if the more amped solutions continue over the weekend, still weary though since this really is a thread-the-needle type setup Has a lot going against that scenario though, no blocking, pattern doesn't really support it, but can we thread the needle? GFS ensembles & EURO here we come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 As is with the iso s packed so tight it's a wind machine and would amount to a B for SNE as modeled . 8 mb in 6 hours not bad. Agreed coastal locals from NYC-east up into SNE/coastal NE would be getting some nasty winds as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Has a lot going against that scenario though, no blocking, pattern doesn't really support it, but can we thread the needle? GFS ensembles & EURO here we come. Exactly this just might be one of those runs where we save the image on our computers for fun if it goes to crap, kinda like the DGEX run last winter that buried NC-NE over a foot snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 yea I just saw that...so it could be five days by Sunday and maybe one or two more at thr end of the month... 31 just before midnight for the low...now we have four straight days 32 or lower and tomorrow makes five...Newark has the most so far for official sites around the city... Days temperatures at or below 32 as of 11/22/14 location 32 25 19 ..9...............32 19 max....consecutive days min/max 32 or lower NYC......5...2...0...0..............0..0................5..0 LGA......5...2...0...0..............0..0................5..0 Newark..8...2...0...0..............0..0................5..0 JFK.......7...2...0...0..............0..0................5..0 edit for the 100th time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 NAVGEM has a pretty sharp vort down south at 108 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 GEFS getting more involved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Still 6 days away. A lot can and will change. Too bad we don't have established blocking for this potential event. That's why I feel we very well may have an epic winter on our hands once the -NAO gets going in the weeks ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 GEFS getting more involved gfsspag.png Pretty tight congregation towards a BM-east solution thus far. Nice to see the GEFS support the GFS OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 It would be nice if the parallel was onto something as the trouble with the old GFS has been too far east for legit east coast lows. It will be interesting to see how the Euro and then ensembles come in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 The models stink beyond day 8 right now, they are back to a torch again but we saw how well that verified 8-10 days ago. This time it may hold some water since some NAO/AO ensembles show both numbers going strongly positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 It would be nice if the parallel was onto something as the trouble with the old GFS has been too far east for legit east coast lows. It will be interesting to see how the Euro and then ensembles comes in. The Parallel did have a great look to it especially this far out, and the GFS has always had that bias of being too far east with LP on the EC. Not holding out much hope for the EURO to show a similar outcome to the GFS parallel as its been cutter happy lately (pattern actually supports more of that with phased systems and lack of any notable blocking) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 The Parallel did have a great look to it especially this far out, and the GFS has always had that bias of being too far east with LP on the EC. Not holding out much hope for the EURO to show a similar outcome to the GFS parallel as its been cutter happy lately (pattern actually supports more of that with phased systems and lack of any notable blocking) It all depends on how fast that energy rounds the base of the trough taking in neg tilt. But at least the new parallel doesn't drop the resolution like the old model does at 192-240. I hope they also do some work on the ensembles to make them more competitive with the Euro. 1) Model changes to the GFS Global Spectral Model: - Increase horizontal resolution of the first segment of the forecast from Eulerian T574 (~27 km) to Semi-Lagrangian T1534 (~13 km), and extend the length of forecast from 192 hours to 240 hours - Increase horizontal resolution of the second segment of the forecast from Eulerian T192 (~84 km) to semi-Lagrangian T574 (~35 km), and set forecast time from 240 hours to 384 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 The models stink beyond day 8 right now, they are back to a torch again but we saw how well that verified 8-10 days ago. This time it may hold some water since some NAO/AO ensembles show both numbers going strongly positive. the ao nao forecast has been all over the place recently...It is forecast to rise and then fall later in the period...some members for theb ao forecast are very high...if that happens December could start out mild... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 The must important Euro run of the generation is coming up... Hour 476 CRUSHED! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 The must important Euro run of the generation is coming up... Hour 476 CRUSHED! Banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 The must important Euro run of the generation is coming up... Hour 476 CRUSHED! You would lock in 19 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Many places now -4 for the month. Should end up somewhere around -2.5 with next weeks warmup putting a dent into the negative departures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 The Euro looks even sharper with the trough than the Parallel GFS through 81 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 EURO looks meh so far, not a lot of energy on the backside of the trough, still only have it to 72 hours though so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 The Euro looks even sharper with the trough than the Parallel GFS through 81 hours. Could be, but what forms the low is the vort on the backside of the trough. The initial front lays down the cold air. We'll see.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Major differences from 00z by Tuesday. Much sharper, night and day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 The GFS parallel held some energy back over Texas, this looks to be much more consolidated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Digging into the Northern Gulf. Low pressure near the GA coast hour 111. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 108 low getting going off Carolina coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 If you're going to make posts like this, then probably best to just watch. Lol, 3 years met. School before changing career paths and been looking at wx models for 15 years... I wasnt disagreeing with you about the trough being sharper, problem in my mind is that we needed more separation between the lead cold front and the vort down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Too late with the backside energy, misses the phase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 coming in further east than 0z off NC slips SE BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 It's a big mess, coast get brushes with precip. At 123 the backside S/W is still over the Plains while our lead vort is over the Carolinas. Everything else looked really good, major improvements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Too late with the backside energy, misses the phase coming in further east than 0z off NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Isentropiclift, you see what I mean now? Since there was less separation the trough stays more progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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