PB GFI Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Of course... This year its not at my house, I have to drive 40 miles. Same here. Colts Neck to Brooklyn then Laurel Hollow w an infant. Sucky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Something to look for at 12z....Looking at the GFS members that turn mid-week into a MECS, what they do is lag a shortwave behind the initial cold front. The cold air pushes east and the trailing wave has enough momentum to create a new large low. If you want the models to show a chance at a snowstorm, you want the piece the arrow on the left is pointing at to be stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Don't look now, but the GFS is way more amplified with the trailing disturbance at 102 hours. Could be noticeably more amplified with the second wave riding along the stalled front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 That trailing vort is phasing in to the lead trough over the Southeast now at 120. Progressive, with the baroclinic zone offshore...but yikes, that's close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 That trailing vort is phasing in to the lead trough over the Southeast now at 120. Progressive, with the baroclinic zone offshore...but yikes, that's close. Like geno smith being NFL MVP close or actually close john? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Like geno smith being NFL MVP close or actually close john? No, it's actually really close to producing a significant Nor'easter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 No, it's actually really close to producing a significant Nor'easter. Significant would be 6" or greater, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Significant would be 6" or greater, right? "Significant Nor'easter" was not meant to reference any precipitation or accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Similar situation post SB ? 2 days of mid 50s Front sinks and stalls just long enough . and the response to the Pos PNA was OBX to CC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 "Significant Nor'easter" was not meant to reference any precipitation or accumulation. lol...be care full what you say around here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 The PGFS looks likely to come in with a similarly more amplified solution compared to its earlier runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Earthlight, Take a look at 200mb/300mb jet, tells me the GFS is placing the low too far Se compared to where it probably should. VERY close as you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 PGFS vort is pretty sharp down south, will it turn the corner in time? I only have it to 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 New GFS has an insane H5 setup at 132 hours...going to be very amplified. H5 winds backed along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 PGFS vort is pretty sharp down south, will it turn the corner in time? I only have it to 120 It will. You only hav eto look at H5 winds to see what will happen. They're straight S-N up the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 It will. You only hav eto look at H5 winds to see what will happen. They're straight S-N up the east coast. Looks like it is phasing the lobe in over the Lakes. Thread the needle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Parallel GFS 992mb over the 40/70 benchmark at 144 hours. What a nightmare that would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Parallel GFS 992mb over the 40/70 benchmark at 144 hours. What a nightmare that would be. Thanksgiving plans cancelled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 It throws back quite a bit of moisture our way. It's hard to tell because it's combining with the rain on Sunday night, but looks to be at least 0.50"+ QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Parallel GFS 992mb over the 40/70 benchmark at 144 hours. What a nightmare that would be. Temps support snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Temps support snow? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 If you look at the ULL winds on the old GFS you can tell it placed the low too far SE. I wonder if the new GFS has corrected this a bit when it comes to bias. EURO & GFS ensembles should be damn interesting, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 It throws back quite a bit of moisture our way. It's hard to tell because it's combining with the rain on Sunday night, but looks to be at least 0.50"+ QPF. That setup taken as is would be all snow even for the coastal areas. Today's ensembles from the GFS/EURO as said should be mighty interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 If we could get more phasing on the PGFS with the lobe over the Lakes we'd be talking a monster. Look at the precip just off the coast. Crazy interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 The trough goes negative tilt around hr 126-129. Just imagine if you managed to get the ULL to close off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 As is with the iso s packed so tight it's a wind machine and would amount to a B for SNE as modeled . 8 mb in 6 hours not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 If we could get more phasing on the PGFS with the lobe over the Lakes we'd be talking a monster. Look at the precip just off the coast. Crazy interesting Indeed looked like it attempted to do that, if it we would have our first glorified blizzard of the season in november! This place is gonna be a nuthouse if the more amped solutions continue over the weekend, still weary though since this really is a thread-the-needle type setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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