TonyLovesSnow Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 probably not...the average snowfall for the analogs I like is 33" with an 11" snowfall...the lowest analog had 20" and the highest 50"...ill take 33 inches as that's my numerology number and favorite number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Seems to me that the euro has been east coast ridge happy in the longer range since mid July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Too bad the Euro 2 meter algo sucks at this range , this would shatter records True. It will be interesting to see how deep the trough trends day 10 on the ensembles going forward. Day 11-15 can be a big crapshoot when changes pop in later 6-10 day runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Looks like the post Thanksgiving cold shot is gaining ground. Very widespread and quite potent on the latest gfs and really reminds me of the continuous cold shots from last year. Right now Fri/Sat look well below normal, Sun-Tue warmup with Monday peak warmth up to 70 or even low 70s perhaps then seasonable Wed-Friday or Thanksgiving/Black Friday and finally by next weekend another cold outbreak as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Looks like the post Thanksgiving cold shot is gaining ground. Very widespread and quite potent on the latest gfs and really reminds me of the continuous cold shots from last year. Right now Fri/Sat look well below normal, Sun-Tue warmup with Monday peak warmth up to 70 or even low 70s perhaps then seasonable Wed-Friday or Thanksgiving/Black Friday and finally by next weekend another cold outbreak as of now. 18z GFS shows extreme cold at Day 10, in agreement with the EC/EC ENS. Still a lot of time but support building for a major cold spell from Thanksgiving forward, centered around Black Friday. Nice EPO blocking with Siberian air moving into Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 we should all donate a couple of dollars to the site so the site can start giving out prizes like free weather stations for the winners. Or a veteran like Paul, yanks or allsnow could manage the fund and buy and deliver the prizes. not a bad idea, I would be down for a prize fund for the seasonal forecasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 not a bad idea, I would be down for a prize fund for the seasonal forecastslets do it through crowdfunding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Seems to me that the euro has been east coast ridge happy in the longer range since mid July. The Euro has been overall a very cutter/Panhandle hook happy model in the medium to long range ever since its upgrade several years back, the general rule is if the GFS is not as amped and the Euro ensembles aren't either, then any amped solution by the Euro beyond Day 4 barring a pattern that really supports it is probably hogwash. I'm not buying that cutter the euro has been showing at all next week and the near miss for us Thanksgivng is likely junk as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 yeah right yanks and allsnow working together managing funds Thats would be the absolute worst combo, they are sheer mortal enemies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Looks like the post Thanksgiving cold shot is gaining ground. Very widespread and quite potent on the latest gfs and really reminds me of the continuous cold shots from last year. Right now Fri/Sat look well below normal, Sun-Tue warmup with Monday peak warmth up to 70 or even low 70s perhaps then seasonable Wed-Friday or Thanksgiving/Black Friday and finally by next weekend another cold outbreak as of now. you are not going to reach 70's with clouds and rain on Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Central Park with measurable snow in 1 of the last 17 Novembers...so nothings off the table, I suppose. In some ways, forecasting in this hobby bears a resemblance to the stock market or betting on horses...you play the odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 total monthly minimums 32 or lower for November......hope is fading for a 32 minimum by midnight but tomorrow morning and Saturday morning should be below freezing...That would bring the total to four so far this November...last year we had nine...there was 11 in 1976...no 32 degree days numerous times...last time was 2011... year..........Nov. 2014-15......4.....as of 11/21 2013-14......9. 2012-13......3. 2011-12......0 2010-11......0 2009-10......0 2008-09......6 2007-08......3 2006-07......0 2005-06......5 2004-05......5 2003-04......1 2002-03......3 2001-02......0 2000-01......6 1999-00......1 1998-99......0 1997-98......8 1996-97......8 1995-96......8 1994-95......3 1993-94......3 1992-93......5 1991-92......2 1990-91......2 1989-90......9 1988-89......1 1987-88......5 1986-87......6 1985-86......0 1984-85......5 1983-84......1 1982-83......4 1981-82......2 1980-81......2 1979-80......1 1978-79......3 1977-78......4 1976-77....11 1975-76......0 1974-75......7 1973-74......2 1972-73......7 1971-72......5 1970-71......4 1969-70......5 1968-69......1 1967-68......9 1966-67......2 1965-66......3 1964-65......4 1963-64......0 1962-63......4 1961-62......5 1960-61......3 1959-60......6 1958-59......3 1957-58......3 1956-57......7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 total monthly minimums 32 or lower for November......hope is fading for a 32 minimum by midnight but tomorrow morning and Saturday morning should be below freezing...That would bring the total to four so far this November...last year we had nine...there was 11 in 1976...no 32 degree days numerous times...last time was 2011... year..........Nov. 2014-15......2.....as of 11/19 2013-14......9. 2012-13......3. 2011-12......0 2010-11......0 2009-10......0 2008-09......6 2007-08......3 2006-07......0 2005-06......5 2004-05......5 2003-04......1 2002-03......3 2001-02......0 2000-01......6 1999-00......1 1998-99......0 1997-98......8 1996-97......8 1995-96......8 1994-95......3 1993-94......3 1992-93......5 1991-92......2 1990-91......2 1989-90......9 1988-89......1 1987-88......5 1986-87......6 1985-86......0 1984-85......5 1983-84......1 1982-83......4 1981-82......2 1980-81......2 1979-80......1 1978-79......3 1977-78......4 1976-77....11 1975-76......0 1974-75......7 1973-74......2 1972-73......7 1971-72......5 1970-71......4 1969-70......5 1968-69......1 1967-68......9 1966-67......2 1965-66......3 1964-65......4 1963-64......0 1962-63......4 1961-62......5 1960-61......3 1959-60......6 1958-59......3 1957-58......3 1956-57......7 34 now so still a good shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 I'm kind of surprised how easily and more frequently we've dropped way into the 20s these past few Novembers. This month has definitely become a lot colder recently than I could remember when stretches of 60s and even 70s deeper into November seemed relatively frequent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 34 now so still a good shot yea I just saw that...so it could be five days by Sunday and maybe one or two more at thr end of the month... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 34 now so still a good shotUHI at work...35 this am at central park and 26 here and other non urban stations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Weeklies agree with the cold snap after tday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Thats would be the absolute worst combo, they are sheer mortal enemies thats the point it's the battle of the biggest snow flake weenies jk but yeah we should do that next year if anything. Any word on the gfs 0z run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 thats the point it's the battle of the biggest snow flake weenies jk but yeah we should do that next year if anything. Any word on the gfs 0z run? Coastal is offshore. Some light precip for the coast but not facinating. Cold Thanksgiving. Out to 156. Storm taking shape out west at 159 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Light snow for the area on Saturday on the GFS. Surface is cold. Cold run after the brief warmup next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 0z GGEM shows a coastal storm for Wednesday. It trended west from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Uhmmm, EURO 144 hours, is that a snowstorm? temps look cold enough, ULL about to phase in, looks like it is about to bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Uhmmm, EURO 144 hours, is that a snowstorm? temps look cold enough, ULL about to phase in, looks like it is about to bomb White Thanksgiving on Euro. wouldn't say snowstorm, looking at snow totals about 2-3 maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Tele, how about down my area (Philly?)....I know "how much for Philly?"....it lookjs like the cold front clears in time for a low to form on it, but can't tell without precip maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Tele, how about down my area (Philly?)....I know "how much for Philly?"....it lookjs like the cold front clears in time for a low to form on it, but can't tell without precip maps Im in west chester, right near philly. And its about 2-4 throughout philly-nyc with more as you go towards boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 No one really posted about it, but the GFS almost did this as well day 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Another chilly one...25.9/12 here in Dobbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Happy Thanksgiving. ........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Monday will def break records as low 70s are looking very likely. It reminds me of that one super warm day back in late December of last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Happy Thanksgiving. ........ Of course... This year its not at my house, I have to drive 40 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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