PB GFI Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 The game changer for the Euro today is hitting the 144 hr vort harder which drags the baroclinic zone further SE. The 12z run yesterday didn't have this feature so strong.If the 144 hr low verifies, then the day 8-9 storm wont be able to cut to the lakes and warm things up here. So more runs of the Euro showing this means that the warm up Sun-Tues is one and done. This will reinforce the magnitude of the November cold departure. yesterday 168.gif today 144.gif Too bad the Euro 2 meter algo sucks at this range , this would shatter records Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 The euro had a day 6 fantasy storm last week, so we cant rely on it or any model past day 5 . Last few years have also shown wild swings in days 3 and 4 as well. One of these storms will stick its just a matter of time. Normally we would be about a week away from tracking legitamate storm threats. This year we have begun tracking them early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Too bad the Euro 2 meter algo sucks at this range , this would shatter records A lot of that is because of a deep snowpack over the interior at that hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Nice depiction on the ECM with widespread cold for the CONUS but the PAC ridge isn't in a good place for an east coast snowstorm. Ridge is west of California, whereas we prefer a PNA over Idaho. This leads to the flatter trough and the further east/OTS solutions. Still way more worried about OTS than a cutter. I still wouldn't count on this storm but I'd count on cold with the PV moving towards Hudson Bay and a big -EPO developing. We could get some light snow from the front/WINDEX even if the main storm is east. 850s are nearly -20C after that shortwave, wouldn't take much to produce 1-3"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Horrible set-up and with a even worse air-mass Thicknesses are a little warm for the coast but the 850s are cold...-5 to -10C moving in. Still think most would flip to snow if the storm ventured close enough. Even in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Thicknesses are a little warm for the coast but the 850s are cold...-5 to -10C moving in. Still think most would flip to snow if the storm ventured close enough. Even in NYC. It's too warm for his backyard so it's a horrible airmass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Horrible set-up and with a even worse air-mass not really. In fact it's a way better setup than the night we had flurries. That was a much weaker wave. This would be a coastal. Hoping for a Saturday rain to snow event so I can win the contest Nov 30th. What does the winner- win anyhow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 some great winters had warm snowless periods... 1957-58...after an 8" storm and another minor event in early December it didn't snow for about a month...It was mild for two weeks...January 58 had two 4.5" snowfalls and another minor event...January was a little colder than average and it had a thaw the last ten days of the month...February was cold and snowy for most of the first three weeks..The last week was mild...big thaw into March...no snow from 2/18 to 3/14...March 14th 1958 had a 4" wet snow event...A week later a foot of wet snow...the snow melted quickly in late March temperatures...not every winter gets a 4" storm each month...last year we got six of them...none in March...1995-96 and 1963-64 had at least one in Dec/Jan/Feb/Mar...40" or more of snow with one blizzard and snow on the ground Christmas morning...how much more do you want?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 not really. In fact it's a way better setup than the night we had flurries. That was a much weaker wave. This would be a coastal. Hoping for a Saturday rain to snow event so I can win the contest Nov 30th. What does the winner- win anyhow? From what I looked at, only surface temps are above freezing. It's going to change between now and then anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 From what I looked at, only surface temps are above freezing. It's going to change between now and then anyway.yeah that's too early but hoping for a more dynamic system so we won't have to worry about white rain like last week. Weekend snowstorms are always more fun too yanks...talk to u at 0z run worked a double today I'm shot️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 some great winters had warm snowless periods... 1957-58...after an 8" storm and another minor event in early December it didn't snow for about a month...It was mild for two weeks...January 58 had two 4.5" snowfalls and another minor event...January was a little colder than average and it had a thaw the last ten days of the month...February was cold and snowy for most of the first three weeks..The last week was mild...big thaw into March...no snow from 2/18 to 3/14...March 14th 1958 had a 4" wet snow event...A week later a foot of wet snow...the snow melted quickly in late March temperatures...not every winter gets a 4" storm each month...last year we got six of them...none in March...1995-96 and 1963-64 had at least one in Dec/Jan/Feb/Mar...40" or more of snow with one blizzard and snow on the ground Christmas morning...how much more do you want?... hey uncle u think this winter we get 50 inches in NYC. My guess was 54 inches. Kinda early but I think I had an inch of snow for November 30th and December to be the snowiest month followed by January and than February. I did however go with a snowless march. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Euro Ensembles aren't showing the cutter for Black Friday anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Euro Ensembles aren't showing the cutter for Black Friday anymore. I am not buying its 500 past day 7 . It is just horrible on the EC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 New 168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 hey uncle u think this winter we get 50 inches in NYC. My guess was 54 inches. Kinda early but I think I had an inch of snow for November 30th and December to be the snowiest month followed by January and than February. I did however go with a snowless march. probably not...the average snowfall for the analogs I like is 33" with an 11" snowfall...the lowest analog had 20" and the highest 50"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Euro Ensembles aren't showing the cutter for Black Friday anymore.do I see a trend here? Hopefully this couple of warm days stay just that couple of days. I can't stand warm weather. Especially when it's fall and winter. Heck I hate the summer heat itself but at least you can do things outdoors. But yeah this time of the year it's supposed to be colder and colder. No more warm spells I don't think until late January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 New 168 Nice look there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Nice look there That`s colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Thicknesses are a little warm for the coast but the 850s are cold...-5 to -10C moving in. Still think most would flip to snow if the storm ventured close enough. Even in NYC. I'm talking about the storm before thanksgiving not the weekend. The set up to me looks horrible. Thread the needle with a horrible air mass for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 This is how close the Euro was for Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Euro ensembles for wed are very warm and little qpf. Not a ideal set up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Euro ensembles for wed are very warm and little qpf. Not a ideal set up I cant see the surface here . These are the 850`s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 That`s colder Euro must be showing a tanking epo on this run. It has been fluctuating from run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Euro must be showing a tanking epo on this run. It has been fluctuating from run to run. I am not looking past 192 on the Ensembles in the east . Day 9 - 15 still has the Neg in the GOA and a trough towards Europe . The cold is not sustained on the Euro but as we get closer the troughs appear deeper in the east and it ends up colder . The Euro is struggling past day 10 on the EC but does not mean its wrong . If the GFS is right and the MJO goes into 2 then the COD then the trough keeps coming . The EPO on the Euro goes up and down , but the trough keeps showing up in the GOA so I am inclined to think so will the trough in the east . I just think the warm ups get muted. Just my opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 not really. In fact it's a way better setup than the night we had flurries. That was a much weaker wave. This would be a coastal. Hoping for a Saturday rain to snow event so I can win the contest Nov 30th. What does the winner- win anyhow? Just bragging rights unless you have something else you want to award the winner............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Man, the euro ens keep getting toastier to start December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 I am not looking past 192 on the Ensembles in the east . Day 9 - 15 still has the Neg in the GOA and a trough towards Europe . The cold is not sustained on the Euro but as we get closer the troughs appear deeper in the east and it ends up colder . The Euro is struggling past day 10 on the EC but does not mean its wrong . If the GFS is right and the MJO goes into 2 then the COD then the trough keeps coming . The EPO on the Euro goes up and down , but the trough keeps showing up in the GOA so I am inclined to think so will the trough in the east . I just think the warm ups get muted. Just my opinion All the models are basically showing some sort of west AK block emerging though due to a poleward Aleutian ridge. Should be some cold shots into the northern tier that move east...more of a Nina pattern but that's due to the MJO and strong trades... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Man, the euro ens keep getting toastier to start December. I`m not sure I buy this day 12- 15 on the EC . With a GOA low and a trough headed into Europe and starting to see some blocking over the top . I think that spells trough on the EC in the LR . The Euro is really struggling after Day 10 . Agree with the El Nino look . I am just not buying ridging like that across the CONUS for a long period of time . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 If this is right then we may not break for that long . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Just bragging rights unless you have something else you want to award the winner.............we should all donate a couple of dollars to the site so the site can start giving out prizes like free weather stations for the winners. Or a veteran like Paul, yanks or allsnow could manage the fund and buy and deliver the prizes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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