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November 2014


Rtd208

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Its also a good idea IMO to look at the total recorded history at NYC before coming to conclusions

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/monthseasonsnowfall.html

Judging by that..if we can get a 3rdr 50+ inch snowfall season this decade(10-20) in NYC..looks like it would be the first time it's happened on record. 09-10 would be considered last decade (00-09) according to that link.
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Then we wait a little bit longer, relax it's only nov 19th. Last week of December and January should be rocking

debbie downers galore in here! Patience is needed here, El Nino winters are marathon not a sprint. We start slow but save it for the end (january/ february). that said id love a Xmas 02' storm with that prolific bankend snow again, most intense rates ive experienced ever since 96' IMBY

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Its also a good idea IMO to look at the total recorded history at NYC before coming to conclusions

 

 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/monthseasonsnowfall.html

1932

                                                        Nov      Dec      Jan      Feb      Mar      Apr

1931-32  0    0    0    0   2.0   0.1   0.8   1.8   0.6    T    0    0     5.3

:lol:

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Idk if it's anticipation or what but this month has felt like forever to get through compared to October. It doesn't help looking at those crazy thundersnow videos of the LES event as well as the hype surrounding this season.

Im sure Jan/Feb will be great but I still want to make sure we're on the right track even on Nov. 20.

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2004 weak niño mild December with a late storm that brushed the coast I believe. Then the first week of January we torched and the rest was history

People also forget that after Christmas 2002 we got very little snow until early February. January was plenty cold with a lot of minor snow shower type events but nothing more than an inch or two.

The expectations that a snowy winter means every month from Dec-March is great is setting people up for disappointment.

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People also forget that after Christmas 2002 we got very little snow until early February. January was plenty cold with a lot of minor snow shower type events but nothing more than an inch or two.

The expectations that a snowy winter means every month from Dec-March is great is setting people up for disappointment.

Yes! The only wire to wire winter had to be 95-96 and even then we had a thaw for a bit after the blizzard.

Last year was close but the snowless end of feb and miss chances in March killed that

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1932

                                                        Nov      Dec      Jan      Feb      Mar      Apr

1931-32  0    0    0    0   2.0   0.1   0.8   1.8   0.6    T    0    0     5.3

:lol:

 

We still haven't been able to rival that January warmth.

Must have been a real shock to have the coldest month

on record two years later in February 1934.

 

43.2.....1932

41.4.....1990,1950

40.9......1913,2006

40.3......1933

40.2......1937

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December was snowless as well. Last winter was essentially from Jan 1-Feb 15th.

We had two plowable events at my location last December. 3 inch storm to start December and a 4 inch storm that changed to ice around the 18th. Also we had snow showers on Xmass eve

NYC had 8.6 last December. Above avg

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Euro is a warning criteria snowfall away from the urban areas on the 29th. Still a few inches for the immediate coast. This is what I was talking about when I said yesterday that one might sneak up on us.

Huh ? We said the weekend after thanksgiving would be cold - your post said no 

 

You posted both this weekend and next weekend would be warm .We argued COLD  I caught the edit .

See below 

Snow88, on 19 Nov 2014 - 1:24 PM, said:snapback.png

Wait, are you talking about this upcoming weekend or the weekend after Thanksgiving.  I thought you were talking about next weekend. Looks like low 60s for early next week before it gets cold again.

IsentropicLift, on 20 Nov 2014 - 1:53 PM, said:

 

I'm talking about both. The system cutting all the way to the UP of Michigan changes everything, waiting to see what happens.

 

 

 

Now you want to take credit for making a call ? 

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Huh ? We said the weekend after thanksgiving would be cold - your post said no 

 

You posted both this weekend and next weekend would be warm .We argued COLD  I caught the edit .

See below 

Snow88, on 19 Nov 2014 - 1:24 PM, said:snapback.png

IsentropicLift, on 20 Nov 2014 - 1:53 PM, said:

 

I'm talking about both. The system cutting all the way to the UP of Michigan changes everything, waiting to see what happens.

 

 

 

Now you want to take credit for making a call ? 

 

I suspect that something is going to sneak up on us inside of 5 days during the next month or so. Without any blocking it's going to be a thread the needle type event that's not terribly obvious.

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So you gave yourself a 30 day window . That`s bal%$^& . Point is yesterday we argued the GFS was cold for next weekend and the Euro may be wrong and you took the GGEM as an ally 

 

Your comment was off the Euro OP at 12z . I know what you based it off .  Just don`t claim victory when you argued the contrary just 24 hours ago.

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So you gave yourself a 30 day window . That`s bal%$^& . Point is yesterday we argued the GFS was cold for next weekend and the Euro may be wrong and you took the GGEM as an ally 

 

Your comment was off the Euro OP at 12z . I know what you based it off .  Just don`t claim victory when you argued the contrary just 24 hours ago.

Who's claming victory? Next week could very well end up as a massive cutter and we torch.

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The game changer for the Euro today is hitting the 144 hr vort harder which drags

the baroclinic zone further SE. The 12z run yesterday didn't have this feature so 

strong. If the 144 hr low verifies, then the day 8-9 storm won't be able to cut to

the Lakes and warm things up here. So more runs of the Euro showing

this means that the warm up Sun-Tues is one and done. This will increase the

magnitude of the November cold departure.

 

yesterday

 

 

today

 

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