REDMK6GLI Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 I wouldn't be banking on 95-96 but a above avg snow year I think is pretty likely. Don't forget NYC avg in the mid 20's for snowfall, 40 inches of snow would be a good year. I think we do get one solid KU event this winter. Weak ninos are pretty good to us no not banking on 95-96' that is the holy grail seasonal total and would pretty much require another 96' and other major storms to add to the totals. is it possible this year? yea sure but im currently betting against it unless we can get a nice +PNA and -NAO and get slow moving bomb moving from the GOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 Not for nothing, but some of you guys are starting to sound like..... used car salesmen (pitchin and bitchin) DEC 5 850mb temp guidance GFS 18Z run Extrap from here would still be on the warm side- IMO So now we're taking 384 hour OP panels and extrapolating them even further? WOW! Only thing I took from the 18z GFS is that it seems to favor the -EPO/AK block. Looks cold after Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 So now we're taking 384 hour OP panels and extrapolating them even further? WOW! Only thing I took from the 18z GFS is that it seems to favor the -EPO/AK block. Looks cold after Thanksgiving. just poking some fun NZ... http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850std1_f360_ussm.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 just poking some fun NZ... http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850std1_f360_ussm.gif The Euro and GFS both shove the PV and associated cold air onto the Asian side.....heights get as low as 486dm over Siberia by Day 10 of the 12z ECM OP. It's similar on the GFS with a wide area of -30C over there. We might be dealing with stale cold air come early December, but as long as we maintain higher heights near AK it won't be crazy warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 transient patterns will persist eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 I think that the ridge near the Aleutians would just be a transient feature. The strength of the +PDO would argue for a stronger Aleutian low developing in December. But notice how the Scandinavian Ridge is already showing up which generally would try to build west toward Greenland as December progresses. 500.gif 1993 had +1.41 PDO for October and somewhat similar progression through phases 3 and 4 the ECMWF is suggesting for early December. First 15 days of December 1993 averaged with an +EPO.. The second half of the month averaged with an Aleutian low. We also had SSW in late Dec and early Jan. This is just to give idea what could happen, if the ECMWF MJO forecast is correct. : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 . We might be dealing with stale cold air come early December, but as long as we maintain higher heights near AK it won't be crazy warm. Understood ...NZ just trying to keep it real some days on here ...... the snow hounds are looking for blood you can't make this stuff up http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 Understood ...NZ just trying to keep it real some days on here ...... the snow hounds are looking for blood you can't make this stuff up 814temp.new.jpg http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif It makes sense...when the ridge is over AK or a little further west towards the Aleutians, the cold dumps into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. That leaves you with higher heights in the east, or more of a Bermuda High. If you notice, the highest probabilities on that chart for above average temperatures in Alaska are centered really far west...that will create a neutral PNA and the possibility for lakes cutters. This is especially true when wavelengths are shorter in the fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 This is especially true when wavelengths are shorter in the fall. thanks NZ That temp pulsing in the southwest... just screams modification If you ask me we be stuck to this loop for good http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/model/mod/index.php?type=18-GFS-WLD-850-temp-0-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 eh? meaning no pattern is gonna be locking in my friend just yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 In PA between Somerset and Bedford Counties which border each other, Laurel Summit in Somerset averages close to 200" annually, but 30 miles east of there in Bedford is less than 40" in the downslope area. That kind of difference continues down through WV and even parts of NC. At least in western NY a huge lake effect storm in one place doesn't mean it's a sign of heartbreak for the rest of the winter. The wider snowbelt areas will all likely have their turn at some point. The one negative about Lake Erie is that it freezes over early, so the real lake effect storms there happen from now until New Year's. There's a nice gradient in western Maryland...where Cumberland averages about 35 inches of snow per year, but maybe 8 miles up the road in Frostburg...the average is over 90 inches...Frostburg a good deal higher, of course. Cumberland a notorious victim of the so called rain shadow effect, being on the east side of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 I suspect that something is going to sneak up on us inside of 5 days during the next month or so. Without any blocking it's going to be a thread the needle type event that's not terribly obvious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 In PA between Somerset and Bedford Counties which border each other, Laurel Summit in Somerset averages close to 200" annually, but 30 miles east of there in Bedford is less than 40" in the downslope area. That kind of difference continues down through WV and even parts of NC. At least in western NY a huge lake effect storm in one place doesn't mean it's a sign of heartbreak for the rest of the winter. The wider snowbelt areas will all likely have their turn at some point. The one negative about Lake Erie is that it freezes over early, so the real lake effect storms there happen from now until New Year's. See the thing about lake effect snow belts & heartbreak from near misses...there really isn't any because the favored spots know they are favored and the drier ones know they generally will miss out. Up around Niagara Falls, they know that they will invariably do poorly relative to most other spots when the lake machine goes into high gear...their long term average annual snowfall of about 40 inches tells them that. Same with the favored spots to the SW of Buffalo and their 150 inch annual means...its not like forecasting a rain / snow line around here or wondering if the storm will stay too far offshore...when a big lake event is forecast...the snow belts are going to clean up almost all the time...the prevailing wind in Buffalo during the cold season is WSW...and this sort of thing is basically not something subject to much variation...the favored spots will almost always do well...the lesser spots will almost always do poorly, relatively speaking. The other point, yes Lake Erie is a very shallow lake and it is the quickest to ice over...though it does not every winter...Lake Ontario is an extremely deep lake and it never freezes over...its pretty unusual for much ice to form on it at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Threadex has it at 34. Last year we tied. http://threadex.rcc-acis.org/ 11/19 34 in 1882 35 in 1951 37 in 2008+ 11/24 30 in 2013 30 in 1880 34 in 1956+ I checked the utah climate center and they have the max missing for the 19th...I printed the record ten years ago from that site...They took off many days that year for some reason?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Looks like a cold Thankgiving on the 0z GFS. Nice ridge out west with a deep trough in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Based on the gfs the pattern is favorable enough so we still get strong cold shots but it's not a favorable storm pattern where we would look for snow chances. It would be a completely different story if blocking develops as the overall pattern looks pretty active though all rain. Perhaps something could sneak in sort of like early Dec 2002 which seems to be popping up a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Based on the gfs the pattern is favorable enough so we still get strong cold shots but it's not a favorable storm pattern where we would look for snow chances. It would be a completely different story if blocking develops as the overall pattern looks pretty active though all rain. Perhaps something could sneak in sort of like early Dec 2002 which seems to be popping up a lot. Wicked cold shot on the GFS after Thanksgiving. 850s are -20C over Upstate NY. We might have a chance for a clipper with the progged Plains cold seeping into the East. Also, it's still early for snow. Average highs in NYC metro on Dec 1st are in the upper 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Old day 11.5- New Day 11 - For Dec 1 . Check out the west coast - the new run has a better looking trough in the east . So i am curious to see if these corrections continue to manifest themselves post day 10 on the Euro The correction is small but they get more meaningful as we get closer . Day 12 thru 15 still has the ridge underneath but weaker than yesterday at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Everyone is so convinced things get started mid December so what will happen if it doesn't? Little things can throw off the entire pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Temp is already at the forecasted high of 45, and with full sunshine. Hopefully we can manage at least 50 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Everyone is so convinced things get started mid December so what will happen if it doesn't? Little things can throw off the entire pattern. Could be Jan 1st...who knows. If this board were here in the winter of 93-94 everyone would have jumped off a bridge by 12/20. I remember it changing on a dime right after x-mas that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Could be Jan 1st...who knows. If this board were here in the winter of 93-94 everyone would have jumped off a bridge by 12/20. I remember it changing on a dime right after x-mas that year. Not worried, El nino's historically are back loaded winters. Not one person is concerned in the NE subforum. By early-mid december we should start seeing more meaningful changes that will lock the cold and troughing in the east for january/february. I want to start seeing that block over the top develop so we can lock the cold pattern in over canada and CONUS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Could be Jan 1st...who knows. If this board were here in the winter of 93-94 everyone would have jumped off a bridge by 12/20. I remember it changing on a dime right after x-mas that year. We had very few big snows in December in the 80s and 90s especially prior to 12/15..that's changed in the 2000s dramatically so people think its the norm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 We had very few big snows in December in the 80s and 90s especially prior to 12/15..that's changed in the 2000s dramatically so people think its the norm Good point. I could count the # of December snowfalls on one hand prior to 95/96. Since then it's rare to NOT have a December snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Not worried, El nino's historically are back loaded winters. Not one person is concerned in the NE subforum. By early-mid december we should start seeing more meaningful changes that will lock the cold and troughing in the east for january/february. I want to start seeing that block over the top develop so we can lock the cold pattern in over canada and CONUS True, but NE is a different beast, they shouldn't be worried. Our winters are always a nail-biter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 one late dec storm can easily put us above avg for the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 one late dec storm can easily put us above avg for the month Yeah, most significant December snow events cluster from December 19th on. Years like 2002 and 2003 were really the exception rather that the rule. I can remember how beaten down the sentiment was through most of December 2010 with the disappearing modeled snows before the pattern clicked with Boxing Day. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/sixplussnow.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Good point. I could count the # of December snowfalls on one hand prior to 95/96. Since then it's rare to NOT have a December snowfall. Its also a good idea IMO to look at the total recorded history at NYC before coming to conclusions http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/monthseasonsnowfall.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Not worried, El nino's historically are back loaded winters. Not one person is concerned in the NE subforum. By early-mid december we should start seeing more meaningful changes that will lock the cold and troughing in the east for january/february. I want to start seeing that block over the top develop so we can lock the cold pattern in over canada and CONUS I like the signs of the Scandinavian block bleeding into Greenland on the Euro Ensembles...that's a good sign for a nascent -NAO as we begin December. Also, NYC only averages a few inches of snow in December. Only takes one moderate snowfall. People forget that March is historically snowier than December despite recent years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Everyone is so convinced things get started mid December so what will happen if it doesn't? Little things can throw off the entire pattern. Then we wait a little bit longer, relax it's only nov 19th. Last week of December and January should be rocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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