bluewave Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 The Euro ensembles deliver our November thaw next week with a day 5 and day 9 cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 The negative departure will get eaten alive by those cutters. It's not out of the question we see a greater positive departure day than a negative one this month. The month will still be negative overall because the cold is still too much unless we see several record positive type days to end the month. I'm still thinking -1.5 for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 The warm ups are brief . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 The warm ups are brief . Yep. Sun-Tues.. and then around the second low. The cold this week will be too much to overcome and we'll have our third cold November in a row. Pretty impressive considering the November sea of warmth since the late 90's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 Yep. Sun-Tues.. and then around the second low. The cold this week will be too much to overcome and we'll have our third cold November in a row. Pretty impressive considering the November sea of warmth since the late 90's. I am trying to figure out is the GFS right with the trough in the East or do I just go with the Euro ensembles that split the trough after day 10 and develop and dam ridge underneath it . Trying to figure out how with a GOA trough and one into Europe how does that not deepen in the east . Maybe we cant fight phase 3 and 4 of the MJO here . Fought with JB about this today after I posted at 4 AM might have been too quick to the trigger . Hate to get hood winked out of position but I hate when I see a Neg over the poles that's never good for us . The Euro ensembles torch us week 1 , I think I take back my last post . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 I'm pretty sure Central Park broke the record for their lowest maximum. The highest recorded temperature today was 32F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 Euro tanks the EPO after Thanksgiving. Will post it when I get home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 Euro tanks the EPO after Thanksgiving. Will post it when I get home. Here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 The GFS does , not the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 I am trying to figure out is the GFS right with the trough in the East or do I just go with the Euro ensembles that split the trough after day 10 and develop and dam ridge underneath it . Trying to figure out how with a GOA trough and one into Europe how does that not deepen in the east . Maybe we cant fight phase 3 and 4 of the MJO here . Fought with JB about this today after I posted at 4 AM might have been too quick to the trigger . Hate to get hood winked out of position but I hate when I see a Neg over the poles that's never good for us . The Euro ensembles torch us week 1 , I think I take back my last post . There's almost definitely going to be a block over AK, which keeps Canada cold and favors colder than normal temperatures here. The problem is that the Euro tries to dig for oil out west with a big -PNA/RNA pattern. If that's wrong and the AK block teleconnects to higher heights in the West as the GFS shows, then we're golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 I am trying to figure out is the GFS right with the trough in the East or do I just go with the Euro ensembles that split the trough after day 10 and develop and dam ridge underneath it . Trying to figure out how with a GOA trough and one into Europe how does that not deepen in the east . Maybe we cant fight phase 3 and 4 of the MJO here . Fought with JB about this today after I posted at 4 AM might have been too quick to the trigger . Hate to get hood winked out of position but I hate when I see a Neg over the poles that's never good for us . The Euro ensembles torch us week 1 , I think I take back my last post . The day 10 euro ensemble signal is for very strong NP ridge extending across to the EPO region. Day 11-15 can be tough to figure out until we see how the 6-10 actually verifies. That may just be a transition pattern since the El Nino/+PDO favors a strong Aleutian low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 The GFS does , not the Euro The Euro from 0z tanked it to -5 but the 12z run didn't. My mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 The negative departure will get eaten alive by those cutters. It's not out of the question we see a greater positive departure day than a negative one this month. The month will still be negative overall because the cold is still too much unless we see several record positive type days to end the month. I'm still thinking -1.5 for many. -3.7 degrees here after today... will add to that next three days before warm up. Temps this month... . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 The day 10 euro ensemble signal is for very strong NP ridge extending across to the EPO region. Day 11-15 can be tough to figure out until we see how the 6-10 actually verifies. ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.png And then it takes us here . With a Neg EPO and a trough heading to Europe the Ridge across the CONUS just looks like overkill to me . If the MJO wasn`t going into phase 3 and 4 I would say this is wrong . IMO this should not lock off with all that warm water in the E Pacific .We just need to wait for the POS to hook over the top then you force the trough back into the east . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 Wow that's some brutal widespread ridging and warmth on those ensembles entering December even if a bit overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 So do you guy's think are we still looking at mid December for a winter pattern to take hold again or are we talking later then mid December??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 And then it takes us here . With a Neg EPO and a trough heading to Europe the Ridge across the CONUS just looks like overkill to me . If the MJO wasn`t going into phase 3 and 4 I would say this is wrong . IMO this should not lock off with all that warm water in the E Pacific .We just need to wait for the POS to hook over the top then you force the trough back into the east . I think that the ridge near the Aleutians would just be a transient feature. The strength of the +PDO would argue for a stronger Aleutian low developing in December. But notice how the Scandinavian Ridge is already showing up which generally would try to build west toward Greenland as December progresses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 And then it takes us here . With a Neg EPO and a trough heading to Europe the Ridge across the CONUS just looks like overkill to me . If the MJO wasn`t going into phase 3 and 4 I would say this is wrong . IMO this should not lock off with all that warm water in the E Pacific .We just need to wait for the POS to hook over the top then you force the trough back into the east . Looks like an Aleutian Low which is more Nina like.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 Barely cracked freezing today at KNYC. High goes in the books as 33F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 GEFS keeps the MJO in phase 2 is supports a -EPO. While the ECMWF keeps pushes the MJO into phase 3 and 4 the next 15 days that typically supports a +EPO. I lean toward the Euro's MJO forecast. The good news is the MJO may head back into COD after 15 days. So whatever warm spell we would be seeing won't last very long: Phase 2 composite http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO/DecemberPhase2gt1500mb.gif Phase 3 composite http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO/DecemberPhase3gt1500mb.gif Phase 4 composite http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO/DecemberPhase4gt1500mb.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 Barely cracked freezing today at KNYC. High goes in the books as 33F. So its a record low max according to Upton but Uncle's records show differently. Newark was mistakenly logged at 41 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 So its a record low max according to Upton but Uncle's records show differently. Newark was mistakenly logged at 41 Upton made a mistake...it has to be 31 unless they are disregarding it for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 Wow that's some brutal widespread ridging and warmth on those ensembles entering December even if a bit overdone. Stop posts like this...it's not even December. Look for a flip to a more favorable pattern around mid month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 Upton made a mistake...it has to be 31 unless they are disregarding it for some reason. Yeah I'm not sure why the discrepancy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 Stop posts like this...it's not even December. Look for a flip to a more favorable pattern around mid month that seems logical for the mid-late December time period to possibly have the stars align for a rocking January/February much like your typical nino year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 that seems logical for the mid-late December time period to possibly have the stars align for a rocking January/February much like your typical nino year. Obv it might be a bit longer then that, but as you said typical niño winters favor a back loaded winter...looking at hr 240 or 384 surface maps are pointless. Ensembles and others have said look for a change around mid month. Next week looks mild to start and then cool for tday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 Obv it might be a bit longer then that, but as you said typical niño winters favor a back loaded winter...looking at hr 240 or 384 surface maps are pointless. Ensembles and others have said look for a change around mid month. Next week looks mild to start and then cool for tday. transient patterns will persist, but it is November not sure why you'd want bone cold to lock in this early. ideally you want December to be varying in temps/p-type and have the pattern setup perfectly for the back loaded winter like you said. you can little by little small changes in the long range but as we all know here its liable to change, I would still call it highly unlikely that this winter will be no where near as severe as predicted. Some of our coldest winters had pretty stout relaxation/warmth in between cold shots, will it repeat this year? TBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 Upton made a mistake...it has to be 31 unless they are disregarding it for some reason. Threadex has it at 34. Last year we tied. http://threadex.rcc-acis.org/ 11/19 34 in 1882 35 in 1951 37 in 2008+ 11/24 30 in 2013 30 in 1880 34 in 1956+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 transient patterns will persist, but it is November not sure why you'd want bone cold to lock in this early. ideally you want December to be varying in temps/p-type and have the pattern setup perfectly for the back loaded winter like you said. you can little by little small changes in the long range but as we all know here its liable to change, I would still call it highly unlikely that this winter will be no where near as severe as predicted. Some of our coldest winters had pretty stout relaxation/warmth in between cold shots, will it repeat this year? TBD. I wouldn't be banking on 95-96 but a above avg snow year I think is pretty likely. Don't forget NYC avg in the mid 20's for snowfall, 40 inches of snow would be a good year. I think we do get one solid KU event this winter. Weak ninos are pretty good to us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 Not for nothing, but some of you guys are starting to sound like..... used car salesmen (pitchin and bitchin) DEC 5 850mb temp guidance GFS 18Z run http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_polar_384_850_temp_ht.gif Extrap from here would still be on the warm side- IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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