IsentropicLift Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Yes that map shows the Atlantic SSTA pattern in the Oct preceding the 10 most Neg NAO winters ever. Wouldn't a strongly negative NAO promote a more supressed storm track overall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Wouldn't a strongly negative NAO promote a more supressed storm track overall? How could we ever suggest something like that at this range of forecasting? It's way too far out to speculate what the global circulations will promote. A negative NAO on average is always a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 The Blizzard of November 26 -27 , 1898 in NYC http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=19615&p=316846 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/monthseasonsnowfall.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 The Blizzard of November 26 -27 , 1898 in NYC http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=19615&p=316846 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/monthseasonsnowfall.html Fuel meet the weenie fire Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 I do like how the trough axis has taken up residence in a favorable spot off the EC .( It did this in '95 ) Its too early to yell fire, but you couldn`t ask for a better early set up to get off to a fast start . Eurasian and Canadian Snow Cover promoting a NEG AO , The warm SSTA south of the Aleutians sets the stage for LP through Alaska sending the Ridge up through the west coast allowing troughs in the east to deepen and allow the trough axis to stay close to where it is for the time being . (IMO ) ( And for me that`s my wild card ) . Like last year I like the idea of freezing out Canada and allowing the blocking to send the PV south then east . Never worrying about " too much " blocking , tighten the seasonal jet , bring the cold and then you take your chances . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 The Blizzard of November 26 -27 , 1898 in NYC http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=19615&p=316846 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/monthseasonsnowfall.html look how rare >50" seasons were, even in the cold 1800's. now we've had 5 since 1993 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 The Blizzard of November 26 -27 , 1898 in NYC http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=19615&p=316846 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/monthseasonsnowfall.html http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Portland_Gale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Just give me a west based strongly negative NAO for January and February and I will take my chances. It would be nice to have at least one super long duration event this winter. It seems like the last few seasons have been quick hitters or two part systems with large gaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Just give me a west based strongly negative NAO for January and February and I will take my chances. It would be nice to have at least one super long duration event this winter. It seems like the last few seasons have been quick hitters or two part systems with large gaps. Agreed. If we can get the +PNA and -NAO west based to work in tandem we may actually have a shot at a long duration single event. Last true long duration event for me was 2003 PDII, that IMO is a long duration event. Wouldnt want a strong -NAO west based or not, would rather take it when it relaxes but does not go positive. Many of our NESIS storms up in rank happened during periods of strong -NAO relaxation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Ralighwx winter forecast is absolutely honking big winter. Primary analog is 02-03 or 09-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Ralighwx winter forecast is absolutely honking big winter. Primary analog is 02-03 or 09-10 Winter201415Forecast.pdf 1.83MB 1225 downloadsv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Ralighwx winter forecast is absolutely honking big winter. Primary analog is 02-03 or 09-10 Ralighwx winter forecast is absolutely honking big winter. Primary analog is 02-03 or 09-10 I did not read yet. Those analogs sound good though. Nov 2002 analog came up #2 the GFS superensemble I had posted before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 I do like how the trough axis has taken up residence in a favorable spot off the EC .( It did this in '95 ) Its too early to yell fire, but you couldn`t ask for a better early set up to get off to a fast start . Eurasian and Canadian Snow Cover promoting a NEG AO , The warm SSTA south of the Aleutians sets the stage for LP through Alaska sending the Ridge up through the west coast allowing troughs in the east to deepen and allow the trough axis to stay close to where it is for the time being . (IMO ) ( And for me that`s my wild card ) . Like last year I like the idea of freezing out Canada and allowing the blocking to send the PV south then east . Never worrying about " too much " blocking , tighten the seasonal jet , bring the cold and then you take your chances . I couldn't agree more. With the weak west based niño there will be plenty of storm chances. Miller A potential and lots of cold air screams big winter to me. This really has the look of another block buster. Sure there will be misses if if the cold is really pumping but better to have the cold available when things do align. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Thursday and especially Thursday evening should be wet with a late developing miller B either overhead or just NW. The GFS really cranks the LLJ, just a few hours too late for us. If we can get earlier development this system could end up quite robust. Then we have another shot at a coastal storm over the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 I couldn't agree more. With the weak west based niño there will be plenty of storm chances. Miller A potential and lots of cold air screams big winter to me. This really has the look of another block buster. Sure there will be misses if if the cold is really pumping but better to have the cold available when things do align.Yea a weak west based El Nino would bring plenty of Miller A threats. Just hope we have the NAO/PNA cooperating. Many times the pacific craps the bed and no matter what the atlantic does it just doesnt work out. Only time will tell though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Yea a weak west based El Nino would bring plenty of Miller A threats. Just hope we have the NAO/PNA cooperating. Many times the pacific craps the bed and no matter what the atlantic does it just doesnt work out. Only time will tell though Miller A's are always exciting to track but so much can go wrong. Give me a nice over running event that runs into a block and redevelops over the Mid-Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Miller A's are always exciting to track but so much can go wrong. Give me a nice over running event that runs into a block and redevelops over the Mid-Atlantic. A 2003 PDII would be awesome! I know getting another 96' is a tough thing to do hence why it is number 2 on NESIS only behind the great superstorm of 93' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 I did not read yet. Those analogs sound good though. Nov 2002 analog came up #2 the GFS superensemble I had posted before. The pattern is clearly acting more Niño-like than our borderline weak El Niño SSTs would suggest. This is a good indicator that we will definitely be seeing effects from a weak to moderate El Niño this winter regardless of what the final trimonthly is, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 I'm not sure what it's going to mean yet in terms of our sensible weather pattern but there are some substantial differences today at H5 between the GFS op and the parallel, both in terms of placement and timing of features. For one, the parallel version seems to be less progressive overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 The positive weenie like hype is almost too much to handle. Everything sounds so good to the point where it's too good to be true. It looks like a perfect signal from both the Pacific and Atlantic with the best analogs one could imagine. Given all I've heard honestly anything less than a 50" winter would be considerate somewhat disappointing. One day 95-96 will be beaten, could this winter be that year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 I really thought 2010-2011 was going to beat 1996 but La Nina took off in February, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 The long range CIPS analogs based on the 00z GEFS have about a three week stretch of below normal temps centered around the lakes and spilling over into the northeast. The peak looks to be around day 10 with averages -2C to -4C below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 The positive weenie like hype is almost too much to handle. Everything sounds so good to the point where it's too good to be true. It looks like a perfect signal from both the Pacific and Atlantic with the best analogs one could imagine. Given all I've heard honestly anything less than a 50" winter would be considerate somewhat disappointing. One day 95-96 will be beaten, could this winter be that year? IMO if they're is a year to beat 95'-96' for NYC it would be this one. IT IS NOT A FORECAST JUST AS OBSERVATION THUS FAR FROM WHAT I SEE. With this pattern coming into play by middle of this month and possibly dominating december as well the next concern is when it relaxes and for how long it will relax as the pattern reloads. Only wall-to-wall winters that stick out to me are 76-77/77-78, last year i stood corrected and saw it was indeed not wall-to-wall. Bottom line its very hard to keep excitement tempered with what we are seeing, not very many negatives so far and seeing the Pacific and Atlantic SSTA's similar to those winters in the 70's gives this winter more weight to POSSIBLY being a blockbuster. The stratosphere responding to the massive snow cover, -AO tanking because of it and recurving typhoon. Extremely strong signal for a strong -AO winter. Only fly in the ointment i see would be either the pacific or atlantic not working in unison when needed to get proper EC cyclogenesis when we get a Miller A/B development. Suppression would worry me more this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 What a wicked noreaster on the 12z GGEM at 156hrs. 980's over central Long Island. Surface in the 40's inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 The storm track will be the difference between above normal snowfall to record setting snows. Just imagine had we not gotten suppression depression last March and what if that final coastal hit us directly. We were on track to beat 95-96 and perhaps would've have if the storm track was favorable that March. The cold was there but the track wasnt and that's ultimately what matters. I'm also not looking at extreme cold either as it's essentially useless and makes no difference towards the outcome. As long as it's cold enough for snow then that's all that I require. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 What a wicked noreaster on the 12z GGEM at 156hrs. 980's over central Long Island. Surface in the 40's inland. Takes a xmas 02' track . But its snows in S NE and C and NNY . Track similar only , does not show snow for NYC . Ant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Takes a xmas 02' track . I would love to see it playout as is. I'm not saying it would be snow but the cold isn't far removed. Would easily drop a quick 2-3" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Takes a xmas 02' track . But its snows in S NE and C and NNY . Track similar only , does not show snow for NYC . Ant Lol well place jab my friend. Xmas 2002 was the last time ive seen thundersnow and before that 96' in my lifetime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Miller A and then capture by the parent 500mb low over the lakes. Another couple of weeks and we would be talking about white paste bomb just inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Lol well place jab my friend. Xmas 2002 was the last time ive seen thundersnow and before that 96' in my lifetime Most of that storm was a rainy nor'easter for the coast, everything just worked out perfectly for the backend snows. One can't expect every nor'easter that takes that track to behave the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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