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November 2014


Rtd208

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Last year I would sneak a peak at the 850`s and the 500 on the Control and look for the deep troughs into the east to see how they matched up vs the superior Euro ensembles . ( And last year it worked ) .

 

Take a look at why the Control may be right at 500 and the problem JB has been catching with the Euro ensembles for 2 years now in it`s Day 10 plus with a relatively similar Pacific SSTA pattern .

 

Look at where the NEGs are  1. S of the Aleutians and 2. Into Western Europe . When you get a trough in one of those places it argues for a trough on the EC  to see them in both for me at least says trough . Both the Ensembles and the Control see the trough in those 2 places but the ensembles continue to back the ridge into the east .

 

This argues for a  trough in the east not a ridge J taught me this as he has always thought the Euro is great west of the Rockies but washes out downstream in the LR  .

 

Now look how the Control open Dec  , That`s BUY OJ futures cold .

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Last year I would sneak a peak at the 850`s and the 500 on the Control and look for the deep troughs into the east to see how they matched up vs the superior Euro ensembles . ( And last year it worked ) .

Take a look at why the Control may be right at 500 and the problem JB has been catching with the Euro ensembles for 2 years now in it`s Day 10 plus with a relatively similar Pacific SSTA pattern .

Look at where the NEGs are 1. S of the Aleutians and 2. Into Western Europe . When you get a trough in one of those places it argues for a trough on the EC to see them in both for me at least says trough . Both the Ensembles and the Control see the trough in those 2 places but the ensembles continue to back the ridge into the east .

This argues for a trough in the east not a ridge J taught me this as he has always thought the Euro is great west of the Rockies but washes out downstream in the LR .

Now look how the Control open Dec , That`s BUY OJ futures cold .

Nice find! Ive heard him say that the GFS problem is to make everything too progressive. The EURO as you said is having the error of not being aggressive enough with trough in the EC when they're is one in the aluetian islands.

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RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
759 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT KENNEDY NY...

A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 23 DEGREES WAS SET AT KENNEDY NY THIS
MORNING. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 27 SET IN 2008.


...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT LAGUARDIA NY...

A RECORD TEMPERATURE OF 22 DEGREES WAS SET AT LAGUARDIA NY THIS
MORNING. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 28 SET IN 2008.

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RECORD EVENT REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

759 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT KENNEDY NY...

A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 23 DEGREES WAS SET AT KENNEDY NY THIS

MORNING. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 27 SET IN 2008.

...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT LAGUARDIA NY...

A RECORD TEMPERATURE OF 22 DEGREES WAS SET AT LAGUARDIA NY THIS

MORNING. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 28 SET IN 2008.

BDR and ISP set record lows as well:RECORD EVENT REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY802 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT BRIDGEPORT CT...A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 23 DEGREES WAS SET AT BRIDGEPORT CT THISMORNING. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 24 SET IN 1986.
RECORD EVENT REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY805 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT ISLIP NY...A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 22 DEGREES WAS SET AT ISLIP NY THISMORNING. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 23 SET IN 1997.
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BDR and ISP set record lows as well:

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
802 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT BRIDGEPORT CT...

A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 23 DEGREES WAS SET AT BRIDGEPORT CT THIS
MORNING. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 24 SET IN 1986.
RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
805 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT ISLIP NY...

A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 22 DEGREES WAS SET AT ISLIP NY THIS
MORNING. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 23 SET IN 1997.

And IIRC 97-98 was a super nino right? Regardless and impressive record for november

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BDR and ISP set record lows as well:RECORD EVENT REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY802 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT BRIDGEPORT CT...A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 23 DEGREES WAS SET AT BRIDGEPORT CT THISMORNING. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 24 SET IN 1986.
RECORD EVENT REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY805 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT ISLIP NY...A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 22 DEGREES WAS SET AT ISLIP NY THISMORNING. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 23 SET IN 1997.

 

It looks like the the 22 low at NYC was a compromise between the parallel GFS MOS and the old OP.

The 12z Tuesday parallel was 21 and the old OP 23. The parallel got the JFK correct at 23. 

 

http://www.mdl.nws.noaa.gov/~mos/mos/gfsmos_eval/moscomp.php?&sta=KNYC&cycle=12

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And IIRC 97-98 was a super nino right? Regardless and impressive record for november

 

Yeah, "super nino". But I should note ISP records only go back about 30 years. LGA, JFK, BDR go back to 1948. NYC and EWR record lows for this date were in 1936 with lows in the upper teens.

 

Anyway, we have a decent shot at breaking the lowest maximums today, across the board. NYC goes back to 1882:

 

NYC....34/1882

JFK....37/2008

LGA....35/1951

EWR....35/1951

BDR....35/2008

ISP....35/2008

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Yeah, "super nino". But I should note ISP records only go back about 30 years. LGA, JFK, BDR go back to 1948. NYC and EWR record lows for this date were in 1936 with lows in the upper teens.

 

Anyway, we have a decent shot at breaking the lowest maximums today, across the board. NYC goes back to 1882:

 

NYC....34/1882

JFK....37/2008

LGA....35/1951

EWR....35/1951

BDR....35/2008

ISP....35/2008

 

Uncle has 31 from 1880 for nyc..

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Uncle has 31 from 1880 for nyc..

the cold wave of 1880 started in NYC like this year...It won't be as cold as 1880 but cold enough...

November and December 1880 selected daily's...

day....max....min....precip...

18......47......24......0.03

19......31......21......

20......41......30......0.45

21......30......21

22......23......13......

23......25......14......

24......30......14......0.01

25......31......24......0.12

26......26......16......0.01

27......32......22......

28......31......23......0.20

29......41......30......

30......34......29......

Dec..................................

05......49......36......0.90......

 

10......16........6......

11......22........6......

 

24......32......23......0.14

25......35......32......

 

29......10........4......0.28

30........4.......-6......

31......10.......-3......

01......16........1

02......34......10......

03......37......18

04......30......25......0.21

05......34......26......0.15

06......37......32......0.57

 

09......32......17......0.40

10......41......32......1.72

11......33......20......0.01

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