jbenedet Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 The point more or less being that the wintertime mean temperature is around 32 F in this area...but only maybe 20% of the wintertime precip budget falls as snow...maybe around 15 inches liquid falls Dec - March...but only 30 inches or so of it is snow / 3 inches liquid equivalent. So in other words, given the overall number of chances for snow vis a vis the number of positive outcomes...I think its fair to say its kind of hard to get snow around here. No. This isn't fair to say at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 No. This isn't fair to say at all. Mean annual precip is around 45 inches...mean snowfall (being generous) is 30 inches...percentage of annual precipitation in the form of snow allowing for 10:1 ratio? 6.7% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 No. This isn't fair to say at all. I mean clearly "easy" and "difficult" are subjective terms...but when a result other than what you are seeking takes place 93% to 94% of the time on average...it seems fair to describe the prize you seek as reasonably elusive... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Another thing you always want to factor in is mean climatological storm tracks at various points on the calendar. The Hatteras to Cape Cod track is a lot less common in November and December than it would be in February...this time of year, lake cutters are a good deal more likely than effective blocking. All sorts of factors contribute to this...the mean position of semi-permanent features like the Bermuda & Pacific Highs...the mean position of the polar jet...and climatology is, again, a big factor. I do believe that the amount of snow on the ground on the continent overall is a contributing factor into deflecting the mean storm track south; and thus potentially increasing snow chances around here. I think that track is probably the reason that we get more snow in February and a better ratio of snow to total precipitation even though February is warmer in NYC. Jan....32.6......7.0" snow....3.65" precip Feb....35.3......9.2" snow....3.09" precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Clear skies http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KOKX.html Nam has snowshowers along with the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 I think that track is probably the reason that we get more snow in February and a better ratio of snow to total precipitation even though February is warmer in NYC. Jan....32.6......7.0" snow....3.65" precip Feb....35.3......9.2" snow....3.09" precip Oh definitely..and the ocean is colder, too...which helps. The other thing is those Hudson Bay Highs are a lot more prominent and often centered a bit further east than during January...with many marginal situations...every little bit helps. Also snow depths and cover to our north usually max out in February...this keeps the atmosphere a little colder too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Just think we have had entire winters where it never got that cold. This outbreak is no joke. If it were mid January we would be talkig about who is going below zero tonight This really will be one of the most historic and record-breaking weeks in winter weather, and it's not even close to being winter yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 This really will be one of the most historic and record-breaking weeks in winter weather, and it's not even close to being winter yet Its always hard to say how winter is going to play out in the greater NY area, snow wise...its not Norfolk, Virginia...where you know if you see a few inches, you feel lucky...and its not Norfolk, Connecticut, where if you see less than 8 feet worth, you think it has been an off year. Like everything else, time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Clear skies http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KOKX.html Your link says mostly cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 I think Thursday early AM has a chance of snow showers near the coast with perhaps a dusting to a coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Being just north of this amazing band is much worse than 2-6-10. https://twitter.com/spann/status/534743539352350720/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 GFS is handling things a bit differently out West early next week. I wouldn't count on much of anything for Monday other than a few rain showers at this point. Tendency has been to shear out the initial shortwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 18z Parallel looks interesting. 1008mb over Mobile Bay at hr 159. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 18z Parallel looks interesting. 1008mb over Mobile Bay at hr 159. link to the parallel? or is it on my weatherbell account? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Broad low over the Carolinas hour 171, light rain overspreading the region from the south, southwest. Cold air isn't far away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Broad low over the Carolinas hour 171, light rain overspreading the region from the south, southwest. Cold air isn't far away. tell you what that is in an impressive cold shot coming down end of next week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Well that was interesting. As is it has some snow for the interior late Tuesday. Something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 tell you what that is in an impressive cold shot coming down end of next week! So much going on during the middle part of next week. Almost a weenie run on the OP GFS for T-Day. The OP and Parallel handle things completely differently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 With so much going on it seems especially foolish to write a period off right now. It wouldn't take much for something to sneak up on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 With so much going on it seems especially foolish to write a period off right now. It wouldn't take much for something to sneak up on us. agreed that turkey day time period still has some legs IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Its always hard to say how winter is going to play out in the greater NY area, snow wise...its not Norfolk, Virginia...where you know if you see a few inches, you feel lucky...and its not Norfolk, Connecticut, where if you see less than 8 feet worth, you think it has been an off year. Like everything else, time will tell. Yep agreed. I actually was referring to the nation's weather as a whole though. Naturally, the fact that the snow is accumulating above most people's shoulders is helping to make it a historic week. The cold alone though is INCREDIBLE. For now, living vicariously through those east of Lake Erie !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Yep agreed. I actually was referring to the nation's weather as a whole though. Naturally, the fact that the snow is accumulating above most people's shoulders is helping to make it a historic week. The cold alone though is INCREDIBLE. For now, living vicariously through those east of Lake Erie !! THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS LAKE EFFECT BAND IS SO SHARPLY DEFINED THAT SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE TOWN OF CHEEKTOWAGA RANGE FROM JUST A FEW INCHES ON THE NORTH SIDE...TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TOWN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS LAKE EFFECT BAND IS SO SHARPLY DEFINED THAT SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE TOWN OF CHEEKTOWAGA RANGE FROM JUST A FEW INCHES ON THE NORTH SIDE...TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TOWN. biblical weenie suicides if we ever had that sharp of a cutoff in the NYC metro area. if Ant was on the inches side he would promptly shove his 9mm glock down his throat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS LAKE EFFECT BAND IS SO SHARPLY DEFINED THAT SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE TOWN OF CHEEKTOWAGA RANGE FROM JUST A FEW INCHES ON THE NORTH SIDE...TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TOWN. Though we might be jealous (which I definitely am), it gives us something to think about. In cases when we pick up 7" while areas 25-50 miles away get 2 feet or so, we can remember this. 15-20 inch difference 25 miles away doesn't come CLOSE to the nearly 4 foot contrast in a 10 minute drive!' Heartbreaking for some! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 biblical weenie suicides if we ever had that sharp of a cutoff in the NYC metro area. if Ant was on the inches side he would promptly shove his 9mm glock down his throat That would be like having 4 feet of snow on Captree but 2" at Bay Shore. Unbelievable. Weenie suicides would be right, but the band should pivot north to give downtown Buffalo some fun for a while later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Though we might be jealous (which I definitely am), it gives us something to think about. In cases when we pick up 7" while areas 25-50 miles away get 2 feet or so, we can remember this. 15-20 inch difference 25 miles away doesn't come CLOSE to the nearly 4 foot contrast in a 10 minute drive!' Heartbreaking for some! In PA between Somerset and Bedford Counties which border each other, Laurel Summit in Somerset averages close to 200" annually, but 30 miles east of there in Bedford is less than 40" in the downslope area. That kind of difference continues down through WV and even parts of NC. At least in western NY a huge lake effect storm in one place doesn't mean it's a sign of heartbreak for the rest of the winter. The wider snowbelt areas will all likely have their turn at some point. The one negative about Lake Erie is that it freezes over early, so the real lake effect storms there happen from now until New Year's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Though we might be jealous (which I definitely am), it gives us something to think about. In cases when we pick up 7" while areas 25-50 miles away get 2 feet or so, we can remember this. 15-20 inch difference 25 miles away doesn't come CLOSE to the nearly 4 foot contrast in a 10 minute drive!' Heartbreaking for some! This CNN video is really cool going from blue sky to whiteout in a few miles. http://www.cnn.com/video/data/2.0/video/weather/2014/11/18/buffalo-ny-snow-lake-effect-savidge-orig.cnn.html https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wRXOr-_GKPk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 turkey day euro and cmc last frame is 18z gfs 850 temps for Nov 26th http://meteocentre.com/models/get_anim.php?mod=ecmwf&run=12&stn=PNM&map=na〈=en loop of the gfs 850 temps http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/model/mod/index.php?type=18-GFS-WLD-850-temp-192-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 27 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 24.2 IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.