November 2014

[PB GFI]

But since that is low level cold air...it may serve as an enabler of sleet & freezing rain...snow would seem a less likely result. 

Being on the coast at our latitude is never a set deal .  I have seen sleet at the height of even some of the great ones .

[REDMK6GLI]

I almost spend more time in the New England forum than I do here lately, and I can confirm that none of the mets there are the least bit worried about this Winter.

 

Most years we don't even consider accumulating snow before Christmas. If you happen to see some before then, consider yourself lucky.

truth! everything is going to plan for December to start setting up for January and february

[forkyfork]

You're welcome.  The role of the Atlantic in turning east coast snows to rains is sometimes overemphasized at the expense of noting the very important role the Appalachians play in limiting the amount of snow that falls along the coastal plain...from Maine to the Carolinas.

W/o the mountains, it is likely that lake effect streamers would regularly reach the coast.  W/o the mountains, east bound mid latitude cyclones would be more inclined to strengthen, rather than fall apart as they slam into the mountains.  Also, as a northeastbound offshore cyclone approaches NYC's latitude and the winds back around to the northwest...with those hills to the west...there is almost immediate improvement in sky conditions due to compressional warming from sinking air.  That is the main reason so called "backlash" snow is so very rare in NYC and along the east coast in general.  The Atlantic is, at least, a double edged sword...fueling offshore cyclones with copious moisture if concurrently warming the lower levels of the atmosphere; I can think of very few benefits that the Appalachians provide for immediate east coast snow fans.

 

long island would lose out big time without the appalachians... all those miller b's would be inland cutters without CAD

[Guest Pamela]

Being on the coast at our latitude is never a set deal .  I have seen sleet at the height of even some of the great ones .

 

The lousy 100 year snowfall averages from Cape Cod devolving down to Norfolk were not arrived at by accident; it is genuinely hard to get big snows on the East Coast south of, really, coastal New Hampshire.  People sometimes forget that just from Boston to Portland, Maine, average annual snowfall jumps by nearly three feet. 

[Guest Pamela]

long island would lose out big time without the appalachians... all those miller b's would be inland cutters without CAD

 

Now we're getting into conceptual & theoretical atmospheric physics...you may well be right, but unless some serious bulldozing is undertaken...your theory will remain hypothesis, not demonstrable fact. 

[IsentropicLift]

If you want the system around Thanksgiving to have a chance you're going to need something to slow down the flow. The energy attemps to amplify but nothing is preventing it from sliding east.

[hudsonvalley21]

I almost spend more time in the New England forum than I do here lately, and I can confirm that none of the mets there are the least bit worried about this Winter.

 

Most years we don't even consider accumulating snow before Christmas. If you happen to see some before then, consider yourself lucky.

Agree, with the early snows esp. upstate NY/eastern Canada setting up a snow pack will help us out too.

[bluewave]

truth! everything is going to plan for December to start setting up for January and february

 

I am not sure why people worry about the snow situation much before late December since there have been so few

memorable events before then. 

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/footplussnow.html

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/sixplussnow.html

[NycStormChaser]

Now we're getting into conceptual & theoretical atmospheric physics...you may well be right, but unless some serious bulldozing is undertaken...your theory will remain hypothesis, not demonstrable fact.

Well fracking may have an affect.

[doncat]

I am not sure why people worry about the snow situation much before late December since there have been so few

memorable events before then. 

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/footplussnow.html

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/sixplussnow.html

Some people have an interest in snow and nothing else meteorological. Also, lowest Nov temp here since I've been keeping records is 17 degrees... could come close?

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Some people have an interest in snow and nothing else meteorological. Also, lowest Nov temp here since I've been keeping records is 17 degrees... could come close?

Just think we have had entire winters where it never got that cold. This outbreak is no joke. If it were mid January we would be talkig about who is going below zero tonight

[bluewave]

Some people have an interest in snow and nothing else meteorological. Also, lowest Nov temp here since I've been keeping records is 17 degrees... could come close?

 

Looks like Central Park is on track for low 20's tomorrow morning. It's interesting how similar this October and November

are to last year. Both Octobers were close to +3 with below normal Novembers.

 

 

November lows at NYC since 2000:

 

2000...23

2001...34

2002...24

2003...29

2004...29

2005...22

2006...35

2007...26

2008...23

2009...35

2010...34

2011...36

2012...31

2013...23

[Snow_Miser]

I almost spend more time in the New England forum than I do here lately, and I can confirm that none of the mets there are the least bit worried about this Winter.

Most years we don't even consider accumulating snow before Christmas. If you happen to see some before then, consider yourself lucky.

That's because we are already seeing the classic response to the SAI in the 500 mb pattern with the persistent Scandinavian Ridge.

[Juliancolton]

Now we're getting into conceptual & theoretical atmospheric physics...you may well be right, but unless some serious bulldozing is undertaken...your theory will remain hypothesis, not demonstrable fact. 

CAD is one of the primary mechanisms for forcing secondary cyclogenesis in nor'easters, isn't it? Or am I mixing up my KU chapters?

[doncat]

Looks like Central Park is on track for low 20's tomorrow morning. It's interesting how similar this October and November

are to last year. Both Octobers were close to +3 with below normal Novembers.

 

 

November lows at NYC since 2000:

 

2000...23

2001...34

2002...24

2003...29

2004...29

2005...22

2006...35

2007...26

2008...23

2009...35

2010...34

2011...36

2012...31

2013...23

 

Yeah the past three years have featured significant positive departures in Oct and negative departures for Nov.

[REDMK6GLI]

CAD is one of the primary mechanisms for forcing secondary cyclogenesis in nor'easters, isn't it? Or am I mixing up my KU chapters?

also saying "genuinely hard" to get big snows on the EC south of new Hampshire? last time I checked we had 96', 03', 93', 06' etc. don't know what he is trying to get at. and CAD is very important part of a cyclones development or maturity If you will. we all know that the further north you go from our latitude the average increases as does elevation.

[REDMK6GLI]

That's because we are already seeing the classic response to the SAI in the 500 mb pattern with the persistent Scandinavian Ridge.

if you look at the day 15+ plus forecasts you can see little by little the 500mb improving for more persistent cold. my beginning of December this board should start getting excited IMO. the stratospheric warming and where it is centered is almost in a perfect location as well. that's a big driver in blocking as well

[IsentropicLift]

CAD is one of the primary mechanisms for forcing secondary cyclogenesis in nor'easters, isn't it? Or am I mixing up my KU chapters?

It's amazing what good blocking can do, especially when you have a nice high pressure system locked in over southeast Canada. When that happens you hope for systems that try and cut towards the lakes. Eventually the low runs into the block and redevelopment occurs where the best forcing is, aka the baroclinic zone or boundary between the mild ocean air and cold air to the north.

[Guest Pamela]

also saying "genuinely hard" to get big snows on the EC south of new Hampshire? last time I checked we had 96', 03', 93', 06' etc. don't know what she is trying to get at. and CAD is very important part of a cyclones development or maturity If you will. we all know that the further north you go from our latitude the average increases as does elevation.

 

The point more or less being that the wintertime mean temperature is around 32 F in this area...but only maybe 20% of the wintertime precip budget falls as snow...maybe around 15 inches liquid falls Dec - March...but only 30 inches or so of it is snow / 3 inches liquid equivalent.  So in other words, given the overall number of chances for snow vis a vis the number of positive outcomes...I think its fair to say its kind of hard to get snow around here. 

[REDMK6GLI]

The point more or less being that the wintertime mean temperature is around 32 F in this area...but only maybe 20% of the wintertime precip budget falls as snow...maybe around 15 inches liquid falls Dec - March...but only 30 inches or so of it is snow / 3 inches liquid equivalent.  So in other words, given the overall number of chances for snow vis a vis the number of positive outcomes...I think its fair to say its kind of hard to get snow around here. 

I agree there our location more often than not in the winter months hampers us.

[Guest Pamela]

also saying "genuinely hard" to get big snows on the EC south of new Hampshire? last time I checked we had 96', 03', 93', 06' etc. don't know what she is trying to get at. and CAD is very important part of a cyclones development or maturity If you will. we all know that the further north you go from our latitude the average increases as does elevation.

 

I think I said south of south coastal New Hampshire...not the rest of the state.  Boston / Logan Airport sees plenty of rain during the winter...probably 75% of their wintertime precip is rain...especially during December & January. 

[SnoSki14]

It's amazing what good blocking can do, especially when you have a nice high pressure system locked in over southeast Canada. When that happens you hope for systems that try and cut towards the lakes. Eventually the low runs into the block and redevelopment occurs where the best forcing is, aka the baroclinic zone or boundary between the mild ocean air and cold air to the north.

A potent well placed block essentially negates any negatives a system could create from it cutting to allowing the cold air to leave to allowing a coastal track from redevelopment. It can even offset a bad Pacific pattern and of course it can slow individual shortwaves down allowing them to merge and amplify without an easy escape.

I'll be ecstatic when the blocking becomes legit because I know what it means.

[bluewave]

The point more or less being that the wintertime mean temperature is around 32 F in this area...but only maybe 20% of the wintertime precip budget falls as snow...maybe around 15 inches liquid falls Dec - March...but only 30 inches or so of it is snow / 3 inches liquid equivalent.  So in other words, given the overall number of chances for snow vis a vis the number of positive outcomes...I think its fair to say its kind of hard to get snow around here. 

 

Over shorter intervals we can really maximize the snowfall percentage of total winter precipitation. 12-26-10 to 1-27-11

produced 56.0" snow per 6.54" total precipitation. That may be the highest percentage of winter precipitation falling

as snow for close to a month at NYC. But like you said, we generally can't get that level of snow production out of total

precipitation.

[Guest Pamela]

Over shorter intervals we can really maximize the snowfall percentage of total winter precipitation. 12-26-10 to 1-27-11

produced 56.0" snow per 6.54" total precipitation. That may be the highest percentage of winter precipitation falling

as snow for close to a month at NYC. But like you said, we generally can't get that level of snow production out of total

precipitation.

 

There are, of course, some neat exceptions...2004-05 out at Upton saw 78" of snow out of I think  9.85" total melted liquid (December 2004- March 2005)...meaning snow was 79% of the precip those 4 months presupposing a 10:1 ratio throughout the timespan.  Such a situation is very rare. 

[MJO812]

Possible flakes on Wednesday night into Thurs?

[forkyfork]

CAD is one of the primary mechanisms for forcing secondary cyclogenesis in nor'easters, isn't it? Or am I mixing up my KU chapters?

yes, it forces a strong baroclinic zone near the coast

[NEG NAO]

if you look at the day 15+ plus forecasts you can see little by little the 500mb improving for more persistent cold. my beginning of December this board should start getting excited IMO. the stratospheric warming and where it is centered is almost in a perfect location as well. that's a big driver in blocking as well

12 Z Euro at 240 shows the storm that cuts though the Great Lakes could provide some blocking down the road as a large strong HP is building this way from central Canada and a LP is developing in southern Texas

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014111812/ecmwf_T850_us_11.png

[Guest Pamela]

12 Z Euro at 240 shows the storm that cuts though the Great Lakes could provide some blocking down the road as a large strong HP is building this way from central Canada and a LP is developing in southern Texas

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014111812/ecmwf_T850_us_11.png

 

Well at least its not over the Panhandle...pretty hard to get snow around here when a Low develops over Amarillo.

[PB GFI]

if you look at the day 15+ plus forecasts you can see little by little the 500mb improving for more persistent cold. my beginning of December this board should start getting excited IMO. the stratospheric warming and where it is centered is almost in a perfect location as well. that's a big driver in blocking as well

Anything but . However what you are reciting is JB and that's ok , because what he sees at 500 is the NEG south of the Aleutians

and a trough into Western Europe which SHOULD teleconnect nicely to a trough on the EC .

 

But at 500 there is a ridge in the East day 9 thru 15 . And the weeklies are not good at 500 beyond that  . But that`s ok, because they have sucked on the EC this year  past day 10 . So we are counting on that the Euro ensembles are right again West of the Rockies and bad on the EC . That`s what he is seeing .

 

But saying the 500 looks good , it does not he is just riding the error pattern he has picked up on . So here`s to hoping he`s right .

[Guest Pamela]

Another thing you always want to factor in is mean climatological storm tracks at various points on the calendar.  The Hatteras to Cape Cod track is a lot less common in November and December than it would be in February...this time of year, lake cutters are a good deal more likely than effective blocking.  All sorts of factors contribute to this...the mean position of semi-permanent features like the Bermuda & Pacific Highs...the mean position of the polar jet...and climatology is, again, a big factor.  I do believe that the amount of snow on the ground on the continent overall is a contributing factor into deflecting the mean storm track south; and thus potentially increasing snow chances around here.