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November 2014


Rtd208

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Impressive to see this kind of cold two Novembers in a row. The high after midnight

spoiled our shot at staying under freezing for the max like we saw last November 24th.

The models have a high close to freezing tomorrow so we'll see.

24  30  23  27 -18 25  35  23  29 -16  
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Upton attached this tat the bottom of their ADF.

SOME RECORDS MAY BE TIED OR SET WITH THE COLD AIR FORECAST TUE AND

WED. THE FOLLOWING ARE RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS FOR TUE NOV 18 AND WED

NOV 19TH...

NOV 18 NOV 19

NYC....33/1959* 34/1882

JFK....32/1959 37/2008

LGA....32/1959 35/1951

EWR....33/1959 35/1951

BDR....32/1959 35/2008

ISP....41/2005 35/2008

*...ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS

RECORD LOWS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE MORNING OF WED NOV 19. THE

FOLLOWING ARE RECORD LOWS FOR WED NOV 19TH...

NYC....18/1936

JFK....27/2008

LGA....28/2008

EWR....19/1936

BDR....24/1986

ISP....23/1997

I think all stations Wednesday break the record low maximum.

11/19 KNYC

Lowest max.

31 in 1880...

34 in 1882...

35 in 1884..

35 in 1951...

37 in 2008....

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I know that technically the high for KNYC was around 45 for today at midnight, but when was the last time the first freeze produced a daytime high of below freezing as well?

the first freeze would be the day before because it would have to hit freezing or below by midnight...11/14/1942 holds the record for the earliest date with a max 32 or lower...it was 32/26 max/min that day...

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..LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM ESTWEDNESDAY......LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAYNIGHT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...* LOCATIONS...ERIE...GENESEE...AND WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDING THE  BUFFALO METRO AREA. NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE SNOW BAND FROM  ROUGHLY A LINE FROM DOWNTOWN BUFFALO TO DEPEW AND BATAVIA.* TIMING...WARNING THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. WATCH FROM LATE  WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOWFALL RATES OF 3 TO 5 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE  MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THE BAND. THIS WILL BRING STORM TOTALS  TO 5 TO 6 FEET IN THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOWS.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

...INCREDIBLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT CONTINUES TO UNFOLD TODAY WITH

A TIGHT NORTHERN GRADIENT AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS THROUGH

TUESDAY EVENING...

REGIONAL RADARS AND GROUND TRUTH REPORTS THIS MORNING TELL THE STORY

OF THE LAKE EFFECT EVENT THAT CONTINUES TO UNFOLD THIS MORNING.

OFF LAKE ERIE...RADARS DISPLAY A STRONG BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW

ALONG THE LONG FETCH OF LAKE ERIE...WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS DRIVING

THIS BAND INLAND OVER AREAS FROM SOUTH BUFFALO TO THE SOUTHTOWNS AND

EASTERN SUBURBS. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BAND IS RIGHT NEAR

DOWNTOWN TO DEPEW EAST TO NEAR BATAVIA. BASED ON REPORTS THIS

SNOWBAND IS EXHIBITING SNOWFALL RATES OF 4 INCHES PER HOUR. THERE

WERE SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER LAST NIGHT...AND THOUGH LIGHTNING

ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED...THE RISE IN EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ALONG WITH

SOME SUGGESTION FROM MESO SCALE MODEL REFLECTIVITY...WE AGAIN SHOULD

SEE LIGHTNING AND HEAR SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITHIN THE SNOWBAND

TODAY.

A 240 FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP THIS BAND OF SNOW NEARLY STATIONARY

THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH JUST SOME MINOR (FEW MILES) OF

WIGGLES NORTH AND SOUTH. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO

FALL JUST TO THE SOUTH OF ROUTE 33 THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON

HOURS. BASED ON REPORTS THIS MORNING OF SOME AREAS FROM SOUTH

BUFFALO TO LANCASTER OF NEAR 40 INCHES ALREADY AND THE FACT THAT THE

BAND WILL NOT MOVE MUCH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...WE HAVE INCREASED

STORM TOTALS TO AROUND 70 INCHES IN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS.

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Has there ever been a more awesome AFD than this?  Lancaster NY reporting 48 inches already, and round 2 Thursday into Friday.... 80 inches for the week?  

 

..LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM ESTWEDNESDAY......LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAYNIGHT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...* LOCATIONS...ERIE...GENESEE...AND WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDING THE  BUFFALO METRO AREA. NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE SNOW BAND FROM  ROUGHLY A LINE FROM DOWNTOWN BUFFALO TO DEPEW AND BATAVIA.* TIMING...WARNING THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. WATCH FROM LATE  WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOWFALL RATES OF 3 TO 5 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE  MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THE BAND. THIS WILL BRING STORM TOTALS  TO 5 TO 6 FEET IN THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOWS.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
...INCREDIBLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT CONTINUES TO UNFOLD TODAY WITH
A TIGHT NORTHERN GRADIENT AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...

REGIONAL RADARS AND GROUND TRUTH REPORTS THIS MORNING TELL THE STORY
OF THE LAKE EFFECT EVENT THAT CONTINUES TO UNFOLD THIS MORNING.

OFF LAKE ERIE...RADARS DISPLAY A STRONG BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ALONG THE LONG FETCH OF LAKE ERIE...WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS DRIVING
THIS BAND INLAND OVER AREAS FROM SOUTH BUFFALO TO THE SOUTHTOWNS AND
EASTERN SUBURBS. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BAND IS RIGHT NEAR
DOWNTOWN TO DEPEW EAST TO NEAR BATAVIA. BASED ON REPORTS THIS
SNOWBAND IS EXHIBITING SNOWFALL RATES OF 4 INCHES PER HOUR. THERE
WERE SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER LAST NIGHT...AND THOUGH LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED...THE RISE IN EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ALONG WITH
SOME SUGGESTION FROM MESO SCALE MODEL REFLECTIVITY...WE AGAIN SHOULD
SEE LIGHTNING AND HEAR SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITHIN THE SNOWBAND
TODAY.

A 240 FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP THIS BAND OF SNOW NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH JUST SOME MINOR (FEW MILES) OF
WIGGLES NORTH AND SOUTH. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO
FALL JUST TO THE SOUTH OF ROUTE 33 THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. BASED ON REPORTS THIS MORNING OF SOME AREAS FROM SOUTH
BUFFALO TO LANCASTER OF NEAR 40 INCHES ALREADY AND THE FACT THAT THE
BAND WILL NOT MOVE MUCH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...WE HAVE INCREASED
STORM TOTALS TO AROUND 70 INCHES IN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS.

 

 

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Some places over Western NY will have more snow today alone, than we had here all of last winter.

 

Welcome to the real world...I'm sure that there are several towns on the western plateau of NY that have mean November snowfalls close to NYC's mean annual snowfall...especially in the favored high spots of Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties.  New Albion is generally one of the snowier co-op's out that way.

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Some places over Western NY will have more snow today alone, than we had here all of last winter.

Insane isn't it ? Really insane considering last winter was incredible here, not a dud. Whew.....I've experienced lake effect snow several years back when I stayed in Pulaski and traveled to Redfield. It was during an event that Barnes Corners got dumped on bigtime. Where I stayed in Pulaski, there was about 1.5-2ft on the ground. In Redfield, as I got deeper in, there was easily 4-5ft on the ground with more to come. It's really an incredible place!

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We'd probably still be frustrated as we'd watch areas like West Milford still get more than double our lake effect snow ;)

 

Since its all downhill from the Poconos...NYC would probably get very little...as the downsloping component would adiabatically heat & compress the air...aided & abetted by the fact that the prevailing winter winds are perpendicular to the Appalachians. 

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Since its all downhill from the Poconos...probably would get hardly anything at all...as the downsloping component would adiabatically heat & compress the air...aided & abetted by the fact that the prevailing winter winds are perpendicular to the Appalachians.

Thanks for injecting knowledge into the subject! At least we now have something to blame. The Poconos are to blame for weakened systems as well as figuratively now if PA was a lake ;)

Solution : I guess we'll just have to move to a lake area. Overall, I'd still prefer somewhere off of Ontario though.

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Has there ever been a more awesome AFD than this?  Lancaster NY reporting 48 inches already, and round 2 Thursday into Friday.... 80 inches for the week?  

 

The wall of snow view from just outside the band is a beautiful sight.

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/11/18/buffalo-n-y-area-in-the-midst-of-a-truly-insane-lake-effect-snow-storm/

 

https://twitter.com/WNYweather/status/534715791883927552/photo/1

 

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I almost spend more time in the New England forum than I do here lately, and I can confirm that none of the mets there are the least bit worried about this Winter.

 

Most years we don't even consider accumulating snow before Christmas. If you happen to see some before then, consider yourself lucky.

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Thanks for injecting knowledge into the subject! At least we now have something to blame. The Poconos are to blame for weakened systems as well as figuratively now if PA was a lake ;)

Solution : I guess we'll just have to move to a lake area. Overall, I'd still prefer somewhere off of Ontario though.

 

You're welcome.  The role of the Atlantic in turning east coast snows to rains is sometimes overemphasized at the expense of noting the very important role the Appalachians play in limiting the amount of snow that falls along the coastal plain...from Maine to the Carolinas.

W/o the mountains, it is likely that lake effect streamers would regularly reach the coast.  W/o the mountains, east bound mid latitude cyclones would be more inclined to strengthen, rather than fall apart as they slam into the mountains.  Also, as a northeastbound offshore cyclone approaches NYC's latitude and the winds back around to the northwest...with those hills to the west...there is almost immediate improvement in sky conditions due to compressional warming from sinking air.  That is the main reason so called "backlash" snow is so very rare in NYC and along the east coast in general.  The Atlantic is, at least, a double edged sword...fueling offshore cyclones with copious moisture if concurrently warming the lower levels of the atmosphere; I can think of very few benefits that the Appalachians provide for immediate east coast snow fans.

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You're welcome.  The role of the Atlantic in turning east coast snows to rains is sometimes overemphasized at the expense of noting the very important role the Appalachians play in limiting the amount of snow that falls along the coastal plain...from Maine to the Carolinas.

W/o the mountains, it is likely that lake effect streamers would regularly reach the coast.  W/o the mountains, east bound mid latitude cyclones would be more inclined to strengthen, rather than fall apart as they slam into the mountains.  Also, as a northeastbound offshore cyclone approaches NYC's latitude and the winds back around to the northwest...with those hills to the west...there is almost immediate improvement in sky conditions due to compressional warming from sinking air.  That is the main reason so called "backlash" snow is so very rare in NYC and along the east coast in general.  The Atlantic is, at least, a double edged sword...fueling offshore cyclones with copious moisture if concurrently warming the lower levels of the atmosphere; I can think of very few benefits that the Appalachians provide for immediate east coast snow fans.

Only 1 CAD . 

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And it will all compress down to 2 inches by next week and then blow/melt away. It is fake, after all. ;)

There is some truth to that as it's super low water content snow. I'm sure it's compressing big time as we speak. It's been I'm the mid teens for most of the event there.

On another note it was 6 degrees colder at Central Park then west Hampton this morning!

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Only 1 CAD . 

 

But since that is low level cold air...it may serve as an enabler of sleet & freezing rain...snow would seem a less likely result. 

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