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November 2014


Rtd208

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Unfortunately for winter weather enthusiasts in the metro - BUT better it happens in  November then December - as of right now we are facing a stretch after this weeks arctic blast of normal to above normal temps with limited chances of frozen precip because the pattern is changing. The EPO is going positive the NAO is going positive with  a strong Pacific Jet and eventually a zonal flow.MJO is forecasted to work its way through stages 2 -4 which in late November around the metro promotes a mild weather pattern........

 

Days 1 -6

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2014111618/cfs-avg_T2ma5d_us_1.png

Days 6 - 10

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2014111618/cfs-avg_T2ma5d_us_2.png

 

I find this about as unfortunate as someone who loves high tide feels about low tide. Much like how the tide ebbs and flows, the cold weather and pattern reload weather ebbs and flows as well.

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This will be a good test of the new GFS MOS. The new parallel run gets NYC down

to 21 on Wednesday and the old 23. The average of the two would still tie the

coldest November reading of 22 for NYC in the 2000's set in 2005.

21 would be good for a second place finish for NYC.

 

 

11/19-NYC record low

 

18 in 1936 

21 in 1924

21 in 1880

 

http://www.mdl.nws.n...a=KNYC&cycle=12

 

November lows at NYC since 2000:

 

2000...23

2001...34

2002...24

2003...29

2004...29

2005...22

2006...35

2007...26

2008...23

2009...35

2010...34

2011...36

2012...31

2013...23

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Watertown expected to get 18-24"+ and Buffalo 2-3 feet of lake effect snow. Pretttty awesome. 

 

You can already see the bands lining up on the CLE radar, when it has the whole stretch of Lake Erie on a SW flow such as the next couple days, it can be pretty impressive.  

 

FROM A LARGE SCALE PATTERN...THIS HAS ALL THE MAKINGS OF A HISTORIC

OR AT LEAST WELL REMEMBERED LAKE EFFECT EVENT...WITH SNOW TOTALS

EXCEEDING 3 FEET IN SOME AREAS BY WEDNESDAY. THE 24 HR/36+ INCH

EVENT IN 12/1995 FOR KBUF IS HARD TO BEAT...BUT SOME LOCATIONS MAY

REACH THIS VALUE TO THE SOUTH. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF

LAKE ONTARIO.

FOR LAKE ERIE...AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE...EXPECT A VERY TIGHT

NORTHERN GRADIENT WITH SNOW LIKELY REACHING BUFFALO/KBUF...BUT

POSSIBLY BARELY GRAZING THE NORTHTOWNS. THIS IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE

TO NAIL DOWN...AND WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE NORTHTOWNS AS THE

EVENT UNFOLDS. MEANWHILE...AREAS EAST OF BUFFALO...THE MAIN

INTERCHANGES OF THE THRUWAY TO THE SOUTH...AND THE SOUTHTOWNS SHOULD

TAKE A HARD HIT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR FEET OF SNOW...WITH MAJOR

DISRUPTIONS TO TRAFFIC AS SNOW RATES FAR EXCEED THE ABILITY TO KEEP

ROADS CLEAR. WILL NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF

LOCALIZED 3-5 INCH/HR SNOW RATES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH

THUNDERSNOW. 

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Record rainfall set at all 6 climate sites! NYC: 1.47"/1.42" in 2002, LGA: 1.44"/1.09" in 2002, JFK: 1.30"/0.80" in 1977, EWR: 1.42"/1.31" in 2002, BDR: 1.36"/0.98" in 2010, ISP: 1.44"/0.82" in 2002. Key: today's record/previous record in previous year.

 

 

 

per upton facebook

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You can already see the bands lining up on the CLE radar, when it has the whole stretch of Lake Erie on a SW flow such as the next couple days, it can be pretty impressive.  

 

FROM A LARGE SCALE PATTERN...THIS HAS ALL THE MAKINGS OF A HISTORIC

OR AT LEAST WELL REMEMBERED LAKE EFFECT EVENT...WITH SNOW TOTALS

EXCEEDING 3 FEET IN SOME AREAS BY WEDNESDAY. THE 24 HR/36+ INCH

EVENT IN 12/1995 FOR KBUF IS HARD TO BEAT...BUT SOME LOCATIONS MAY

REACH THIS VALUE TO THE SOUTH. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF

LAKE ONTARIO.

FOR LAKE ERIE...AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE...EXPECT A VERY TIGHT

NORTHERN GRADIENT WITH SNOW LIKELY REACHING BUFFALO/KBUF...BUT

POSSIBLY BARELY GRAZING THE NORTHTOWNS. THIS IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE

TO NAIL DOWN...AND WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE NORTHTOWNS AS THE

EVENT UNFOLDS. MEANWHILE...AREAS EAST OF BUFFALO...THE MAIN

INTERCHANGES OF THE THRUWAY TO THE SOUTH...AND THE SOUTHTOWNS SHOULD

TAKE A HARD HIT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR FEET OF SNOW...WITH MAJOR

DISRUPTIONS TO TRAFFIC AS SNOW RATES FAR EXCEED THE ABILITY TO KEEP

ROADS CLEAR. WILL NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF

LOCALIZED 3-5 INCH/HR SNOW RATES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH

THUNDERSNOW. 

 

5 inches of snow in one hour. Wow.

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That can happen in storms here-i.e. 2/8/13 and the storm last Feb 13th but for short periods of time compared to that. Those bands will likely hover over one area for an entire day. 

 

I would have liked to experience that 6" per hour rate up in CT.

 

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/24hourprof/unprecedented-radar-reflectivities-and-snowfall-rates

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