Stormlover74 Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 So is today one of those days where we hit our high temps late tonight skewing the averages for both today and tomorrow? Right now we're stuck in the low 40s and anything over the low 50s seems unlikely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 You're going to need some good dynamics to cool the column and if it tracks close enough to the coast it will torch the mid-level even more. It seems like a good setup for a storm, not a snowstorm, at least not for the coast. Agreed, one of those situations where it has to be strong enough to wrap cold air into it or its just mid-upper 30's and a cold rain. luckily though this is still very much in la la land so many things can and most likely will change before this potential event..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Don't believe everything you see. The surface freezing line is back near State College at that panel. you don't need the surface to be 32F for it to snow as was proven last week and many other times - plus thats the date I selected in the contest for the 1st inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 So is today one of those days where we hit our high temps late tonight skewing the averages for both today and tomorrow? Right now we're stuck in the low 40s and anything over the low 50s seems unlikely Yeah...Soo much for even hitting 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 So is today one of those days where we hit our high temps late tonight skewing the averages for both today and tomorrow? Right now we're stuck in the low 40s and anything over the low 50s seems unlikely Probobly...should be falling back thru the 40's towards midnight, temps tomorrow look to be not far from freezing during the day but official highs may be 40 or higher at midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 you don't need the surface to be 32F for it to snow as was proven last week and many other times If you want it to stick in November you do. Precip would likely be shut off by then anyway as the low is already east of the benchmark. It's another case where the cold air is wrapping in as the storm pulls away, and historically that never works out well for us. You're going to need a more wrapped up solution to cool the column faster, but then you're rolling the dice with the flow coming off the still relatively warm ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 The 12z parallel GFS has a completely different solution. More of a classic Miller A solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 If you want it to stick in November you do. Precip would likely be shut off by then anyway as the low is already east of the benchmark. It's another case where the cold air is wrapping in as the storm pulls away, and historically that never works out well for us. You're going to need a more wrapped up solution to cool the column faster, but then you're rolling the dice with the flow coming off the still relatively warm ocean. The atlantic is still very much a furnace so any flow off the ocean with flip us to rain very quickly. this is purely threading the needle here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 The 12z parallel GFS has a completely different solution. More of a classic Miller A solution. GFS parallel hasnt been too bad this season thus far. Lets see what it does when the original GFS is moth balled and we have to rely on this purely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 The atlantic is still very much a furnace so any flow off the ocean with flip us to rain very quickly. this is purely threading the needle here Seriously... We had snow up here last week for about eight hours and not one flake stuck, and the temp was 33-34. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Seriously... We had snow up here last week for about eight hours and not one flake stuck, and the temp was 33-34. and you forgot to mention it was falling at night with no solar influence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 If you want it to stick in November you do. Precip would likely be shut off by then anyway as the low is already east of the benchmark. It's another case where the cold air is wrapping in as the storm pulls away, and historically that never works out well for us. You're going to need a more wrapped up solution to cool the column faster, but then you're rolling the dice with the flow coming off the still relatively warm ocean. Huh so many arguments here not sure which one you are trying to make , 1 . A center running from OBX TO CC would produce a NE wind . That`s not " off " the water . 2. An easterly wind in the middle of Jan would flip all coastal locations to RAIN . 3. A wrapped up solution on a NE wind would flip everyone to snow . 4 . 1 OP run is the only defense here .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Huh so many arguments here not sure which one you are trying to make , 1 . A center running from OBX TO CC would produce a NE wind . That`s not " off " the water . 2. An easterly wind in the middle of Jan would flip all coastal location to RAIN . 3. A wrapped up solution on a NE wind would flip everyone to snow . 4 . 1 OP run is the only defense here .. My general argument here is that at hour 228 925mb temps are +4C for the city, with the 0c line back near Pittsburgh. Temps crash after that hour, but precip is also winding down, and the surface is the last to cool. If you get a more wrapped up solution, you're going to have better dynamics to work with but then you better get a perfect track or you're going to get more of an easterly wind until the low passes. And if the system is too wrapped up and too far offshore, you're going to be smoking cirrus. I long for the day when we have something better to discuss than whether or not a 240hr panel shows snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 The atlantic is still very much a furnace so any flow off the ocean with flip us to rain very quickly. this is purely threading the needle here And in mid JAN with the Atlantic "cold" an E wind would flip you to rain . Its not Ocean temp it`s the Strength , LP placement and wind direction . Coastal plain at 40 N is always a fight . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 My general argument here is that at hour 228 925mb temps are +4C for the city, with the 0c line back near Pittsburgh. Temps crash after that hour, but precip is also winding down, and the surface is the last to cool. If you get a more wrapped up solution, you're going to have better dynamics to work with but then you better get a perfect track or you're going to get more of an easterly wind until the low passes. And if the system is too wrapped up and too far offshore, you're going to be smoking cirrus. I long for the day when we have something better to discuss than whether or not a 240hr panel shows snow. That was my only point . If you get east enough the flow backs around faster , and " if the low strengthens not just this one but anyone then those 850`s come all the way to the surface . Agree day 10 - not a serious disco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 And in mid JAN with the Atlantic "cold" an E wind would flip you to rain . Its not Ocean temp it`s the Strength , LP placement and wind direction . Coastal plain at 40 N is always a fight . It depends on even more than that. If you have a blocking high to the north with CAD then it's snow just inland with a nasty mix for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Seriously... We had snow up here last week for about eight hours and not one flake stuck, and the temp was 33-34. If it snowed hard enough it would have...the intensity is the key at those temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 On a more important note, peak of the storm is approaching now with heavy rain about to overspread the entire region within the next hour from the southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 On a more important note, peak of the storm is approaching now with heavy rain about to overspread the entire region within the next hour from the southwest. Already here. pouring now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Poruing here. Going to be fun staying outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Wednesday morning... http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAPA_12z/f48.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 You can see the meso low and cold front well on radar now, currently approaching Philly. I think things wind down fairly rapidly after this passes in another hour or so. Then we wait and see if the activity in eastern VA comes up here or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 12Z euro still has the coastal low for Turkey Day. Looks colder than 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 12Z euro still has the coastal low for Turkey Day. Looks colder than 0z. It's weak and east. Doesn't really get going until it's near Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 This is awesome.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Up to 1.01" at home and 0.86" at work where it's currently downpouring. Most locations should easily surpass an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 This is awesome.. velocity.gif can you find the warm front? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxwell03 Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Amazonian downpouring right now in New Brunswick. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 can you find the warm front? If you look at TPHL you can actually see multiple bands of stronger winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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