Absolute Humidity Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Steady rain with .70" in the bucket. It's rain but at least it's a cold 40 degree rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Nobody can accurately predict weather, pro met or not...mother nature does her own thing. The general theme of your statements is ironic considering your screen name. 35 with cold rain here. It should be fun to watch the lake effect event about to unfold in and around Buffalo later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 I can't even imagine what some of the posts would look like if we ever had a backloaded version of 2010-2011. Zero snowfall through groundhog day and then 61.9" by early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 I can't even imagine what some of the posts would look like if we ever had a backloaded version of 2010-2011. Zero snowfall through groundhog day and then 61.9" by early March. At this rate we'll have the highest amount of members 5 posted and/or banned before the first snow event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Many people are thinking back loaded anyways. I have no idea why a few of you are being pessimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 And what meteorological schools have you gone to in order to make this prediction? Where is your phD from? Seriously, anyone who isn't an actual met or pro forecaster should just stop thinking they can predict the weather. That's bs. A degree doesn't dictate someone's knowledge. There are guys on here with no degree who do a kickass job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 It's going to be a long winter if this nonsense is occuring on November 17th. Most years we don't even contemplate accumulating snow until Christmas or so. Too many kids on here with too much free time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 I can't even imagine what some of the posts would look like if we ever had a backloaded version of 2010-2011. Zero snowfall through groundhog day and then 61.9" by early March. I believe that's 2009-10 where other than Dec 19 Blizzard (out east on LI at least) February added around 35-40" of snow. 2010-11 was Boxing Day, then a torrid streak in January but don't remember too much after January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Most of what fell in 09-10 & 10-11 occured during a few higher end KU events. It was more about quality those winters over quantity. I feel this Winter could be heading down that road, which is why I was calling for a top 5 winter all time at Central Park, a majority of which would fall in 3-4 KU events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Unfortunately for winter weather enthusiasts in the metro - BUT better it happens in November then December - as of right now we are facing a stretch after this weeks arctic blast of normal to above normal temps with limited chances of frozen precip because the pattern is changing. The EPO is going positive the NAO is going positive with a strong Pacific Jet and eventually a zonal flow.MJO is forecasted to work its way through stages 2 -4 which in late November around the metro promotes a mild weather pattern........ Days 1 -6 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2014111618/cfs-avg_T2ma5d_us_1.png Days 6 - 10 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2014111618/cfs-avg_T2ma5d_us_2.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Just pump the brakes a bit on the doom and gloom. Do you not remember the 3 week boredom of hell in December 2002? It's an inevitable relaxation. My guess is maybe mid Dec reload? And who knows..maybe it happens earlier..just a guess right now. Point is, relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 The models seem very confused nothing is set right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Just pump the brakes a bit on the doom and gloom. Do you not remember the 3 week boredom of hell in December 2002? It's an inevitable relaxation. My guess is maybe mid Dec reload? And who knows..maybe it happens earlier..just a guess right now. Point is, relax. I am glad this change in the pattern is happening later this week in November- eventually the pattern is going to reload by mid December which is a much more favorable time period for winter weather events around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Just pump the brakes a bit on the doom and gloom. Do you not remember the 3 week boredom of hell in December 2002? It's an inevitable relaxation. My guess is maybe mid Dec reload? And who knows..maybe it happens earlier..just a guess right now. Point is, relax. I was looking at the longer range EURO and while i know its far off and is liable to substantial swings at its range they're are some good signs. the model is trying to lock the pattern in over the top as we get deeper into december so its not like its latching onto the zonal/+EPO/NAO, its showing some promising changes as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Too many kids on here with too much free time. The irony is not lost on me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Just pump the brakes a bit on the doom and gloom. Do you not remember the 3 week boredom of hell in December 2002? It's an inevitable relaxation. My guess is maybe mid Dec reload? And who knows..maybe it happens earlier..just a guess right now. Point is, relax. I guess that some people need a climo reality check since the big dates seldom occur before mid to late December. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/footplussnow.html http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/sixplussnow.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 I believe that's 2009-10 where other than Dec 19 Blizzard (out east on LI at least) February added around 35-40" of snow. 2010-11 was Boxing Day, then a torrid streak in January but don't remember too much after January Winter literally ended in February that winter lol. The stretch from Boxing Day until the end of January was awesome. I was looking at the longer range EURO and while i know its far off and is liable to substantial swings at its range they're are some good signs. the model is trying to lock the pattern in over the top as we get deeper into december so its not like its latching onto the zonal/+EPO/NAO, its showing some promising changes as well Euro is still showing a coastal near Thanksgiving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Winter literally ended in February that winter lol. The stretch from Boxing Day until the end of January was awesome. Euro is still showing a coastal near Thanksgiving Its far off ant but that looks like our best shot for our first notable snowfall of the season. More importantly to me is around that time we should start getting a clearer picture on how winter plans on locking in and how the blocking and pacific ridging can establish itself. Even we dont get snow around thanksgiving we should still see something positive regarding the winrer around that time period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 12z NAM 925mb winds 60kts for LI, late this afternoon. Isolated convection could bring some these winds down: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 It's going to be a wet day, especially NW of NYC. Looks like a solid wall of rain incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 It's going to be a wet day, especially NW of NYC. Looks like a solid wall of rain incoming. Yup! Looks like a good soaker today, thats ok with me since im working 8-6 anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 0.58" in the bucket since midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 .47" total so far. November rainstorms like this are always welcomed in my eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 The Pre-Thanksgiving storm definitly still has legs. The flow is fast but you can still thread the needle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Just need to get that LP a little further offshore and hold until november 27th and we'll be in business! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 12Z GFS at 240 - Thanksgiving Snow http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014111712/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_36.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 0.63" here so far... possible near record low temps Wednesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Just need to get that LP a little further offshore and hold until november 27th and we'll be in business! You're going to need some good dynamics to cool the column and if it tracks close enough to the coast it will torch the mid-level even more. It seems like a good setup for a storm, not a snowstorm, at least not for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 12Z GFS at 240 - Thanksgiving Snow http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014111712/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_36.png Don't believe everything you see. The surface freezing line is back near State College at that panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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