REDMK6GLI Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 On 11/3/2014 at 1:43 AM, Snow88 said: Go look at the Euro ensembles and Gfs. Great looking pattern settling in. of course, the pattern looks awesome as we head deeper into this month BUT its not really a "weenie's paradise" like you said. We can only analyze the pattern at this point and not P-types yet bud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 On 11/3/2014 at 12:57 AM, NEG NAO said: agree 100% plus very rarely he posts a link to back up his statements Lol its a great look. Where did he say people were getting feet of snow? What he said is true, thats a hell of a look going forward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 On 11/2/2014 at 10:58 PM, PB GFI said: You mean the 2 cold rain events at 120 and at 196 Please stop posting this cr.. man . It's simply not true. Either you have no idea what you are looking at or you are an unapologetic liar that just wastes people's time looking to see what the heck you are looking at. Please stop it's only November and you are in mid season form Where did he say it was going to snow??? Its a great look, I didnt see him calling for feet of snow or anything. What was so outrageous about that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYY_2 Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 On 11/3/2014 at 2:25 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Where did he say it was going to snow??? Its a great look, I didnt see him calling for feet of snow or anything. What was so outrageous about that? i see you're in Taunton, I'm curious as to whether or not you received any measurable snow this morning/afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 On 11/3/2014 at 2:24 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Lol its a great look. Where did he say people were getting feet of snow? What he said is true, thats a hell of a look going forward you being in Taunton have ALOT better shot at getting accumulating snow in this pattern this month than us friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 On 11/3/2014 at 2:40 AM, REDMK6GLI said: you being in Taunton have ALOT better shot at getting accumulating snow in this pattern this month than us friend Yeah, because eastern Massachusetts does very well with storms that cut inland (heavy heavy sarcasm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 On 11/3/2014 at 2:42 AM, mob1 said: Yeah, because eastern Massachusetts does very well with storms that cut inland (heavy heavy sarcasm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 On 11/3/2014 at 2:32 AM, NYY_2 said: i see you're in Taunton, I'm curious as to whether or not you received any measurable snow this morning/afternoonI did. Received a little over a half inch, but snow was flying for the better part of 5 hoursNice early season event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 On 11/3/2014 at 2:42 AM, mob1 said: Yeah, because eastern Massachusetts does very well with storms that cut inland (heavy heavy sarcasm) Lol. I think winter weather here relates decently well to the NYC area, thats why I post here occasionally. If you guys do well, I will probably do well. If you guys don't, my chances aren't great either. Obviously I do a bit better overall, but big picture it's similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 On 11/3/2014 at 2:50 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Lol. I think winter weather here relates decently well to the NYC area, thats why I post here occasionally. If you guys do well, I will probably do well. If you guys don't, my chances aren't great either. Obviously I do a bit better overall, but big picture it's similar Taunton avarages almost double the snow of NYC, your longitudinal position helps tremendously, as does not being right at the coast. You avarage about what the far NW suburbs of NYC do (about 40 inches) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 On 11/3/2014 at 2:40 AM, REDMK6GLI said: you being in Taunton have ALOT better shot at getting accumulating snow in this pattern this month than us friend http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=kswf Some of us around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 On 11/3/2014 at 2:25 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Where did he say it was going to snow??? Its a great look, I didnt see him calling for feet of snow or anything. What was so outrageous about that? His quote " 12 z euro is a Weenies paradise" Do I even have to address how stupid this post was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 On 11/3/2014 at 3:00 AM, mob1 said: Taunton avarages almost double the snow of NYC, your longitudinal position helps tremendously, as does not being right at the coast. You avarage about what the far NW suburbs of NYC do (about 40 inches)I will admit, being along the coast is a killer. Even being five miles away from the water can make a huge difference in some storms.While the snow disparity seems rather large, I do think it is similar enough. I share more in common with NYC than I do with the rest of NE lol, thats for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 No frost/freeze watch/warning for LI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 42 degrees with strong winds On 11/3/2014 at 3:05 AM, PB GFI said: His quote " 12 z euro is a Weenies paradise"Do I even have to address how stupid this post was. It is. A great looking pattern developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Guidance overnight still showing change starting this upcoming weekend. Super Typhoon Nuri recurving in the Western Pacific phases into powerful extratropical low near the Alleutian Islands. Which starts building a ridge over Western North America that extends into the Artic Circle, next week: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014110300/ecmwf_z500_mslp_wpac.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 On 11/3/2014 at 11:59 AM, Weathergun said: Guidance overnight still showing change starting this upcoming weekend. Super Typhoon Nuri recurving in the Western Pacific phases into powerful extratropical low near the Alleutian Islands. Which starts building a ridge over Western North America that extends into the Artic Circle, next week: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014110300/ecmwf_z500_mslp_wpac.html The block over the top is an awesome look for the winter season my friend Also wonder if this pattern can lock in and repetitively reload like 76/77 & 77/78. Or like many cold winters outsider of the extreme ones gets off fast then relax then bookend the winter with cold and snow threats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 I have seen enough . Nov will be below normal. Now strike up the band for Dec too. The next 45 to 50 days in total may open Below normal . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 On 11/3/2014 at 12:48 PM, PB GFI said: I have seen enough . Nov will be below normal. Now strike up the band for Dec too. The next 45 to 50 days in total may open Below normal . As i noted above paul our next concern if you will could be wall-to-wall locked in cold like last year, 76-77/77-78 (severity to be determined obviously) or relax during a period like more "typical" colder winters and possible return for a bookend to winter. Think it is a logical question to ask at this point and something to keep in mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 While there was a freeze warning I don't think many places got below 35. In fact ewr hit 37 while most interior sites stayed between 38 & 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 I don't get it... my Oregon Scientific dropped me to 23.0F overnight, and a nearby USCRN station bottomed out at 24.6F, but most other places to my west, north, and east didn't even drop below freezing. I am in a bit of a SW-NE oriented valley, but could that account for such a huge difference in cooling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Rev 'em up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 On 11/3/2014 at 2:20 PM, earthlight said: Rev 'em up B1hdp8fIAAAYjHv.png Can you say -AO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 On 11/3/2014 at 2:24 PM, TeleConnectSnow said: Can you say -AO? Having the stratosphere warm like that over Siberia in November is one of the strongest signals for a -AO winter and an extremely encouraging sign for us. And it is a byproduct of the snowcover...essentially doing its job. Now, obviously, this is a 360 hour forecast and it's going to change. So I'm not exactly ready to start tossing weenies in the air. But it's a huge sign and we're starting to see it on more long term guidance now. That signal combined with what we're seeing in the Atlantic SSTA configuration is incredibly encouraging. (I know this is spoken about all the time, usually before winter when people try to search for signs in the SSTA's for cold....but this one is pretty legit). This cold pool in the North-Central Atlantic is nearly textbook...maybe slightly east of textbook but the Oct anomalies match up very well Here are the current Atlantic anomalies: Here are the SSTA's in the Octobers preceding the 10 most Negative NAO winters on record: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Also...watch the 2 week Westward progression of the warm anomalies near the equator in the Nino area. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/sst.anom.anim.week.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 On 11/3/2014 at 2:30 PM, earthlight said: Having the stratosphere warm like that over Siberia in November is one of the strongest signals for a -AO winter and an extremely encouraging sign for us. And it is a byproduct of the snowcover...essentially doing its job. Now, obviously, this is a 360 hour forecast and it's going to change. So I'm not exactly ready to start tossing weenies in the air. But it's a huge sign and we're starting to see it on more long term guidance now. That signal combined with what we're seeing in the Atlantic SSTA configuration is incredibly encouraging. (I know this is spoken about all the time, usually before winter when people try to search for signs in the SSTA's for cold....but this one is pretty legit). This cold pool in the North-Central Atlantic is nearly textbook...maybe slightly east of textbook but the Oct anomalies match up very well Here are the current Atlantic anomalies: sst.daily.anom.gif Here are the SSTA's in the Octobers preceding the 10 most Negative NAO winters on record: 2cfdzk4.jpg Some VERY heavy hitters there such as 1995-1996? Im assuming that meant OCT. 95? Sorry still asleep at work john my A game isnt here yet its running late today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 On 11/3/2014 at 2:32 PM, earthlight said: Also...watch the 2 week Westward progression of the warm anomalies near the equator in the Nino area. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/sst.anom.anim.week.html Do you think we see significant snow before December? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 On 11/3/2014 at 2:38 PM, REDMK6GLI said: Some VERY heavy hitters there such as 1995-1996? Im assuming that meant OCT. 95? Sorry still asleep at work john my A game isnt here yet its running late today Yes that map shows the Atlantic SSTA pattern in the Oct preceding the 10 most Neg NAO winters ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 On 11/3/2014 at 2:39 PM, IsentropicLift said: Do you think we see significant snow before December? Unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 On 11/3/2014 at 2:41 PM, earthlight said: Unlikely.If they're is notable of greater snowfall in ths NE its gonna be confined to the SNE/north areas. IMO our snow threats will start ramping up as we head into december with this pattern setting up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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