SnowGoose69 Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Most El Niño years are better later in the winter. 2010 had the major storm in late December which almost wasn't due to the progressive flow. I wouldn't worry at all based on what's happening now. Some El Ninos have head faked cold in November and then flipped for the rest of the winter but they are typically strong El Ninos, 97-98 and 72-73 both did so for a time...I think many of the snow records broken today in the Plains and Midwest were from 1972. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Some El Ninos have head faked cold in November and then flipped for the rest of the winter but they are typically strong El Ninos, 97-98 and 72-73 both did so for a time...I think many of the snow records broken today in the Plains and Midwest were from 1972. Yeah 97 was very deceiving and I remember a snow threat just before Christmas that ultimately was a rainstorm and then January/February just torched with zero snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Yeah 97 was very deceiving and I remember a snow threat just before Christmas that ultimately was a rainstorm and then January/February just torched with zero snow. 09-10 was awfully similar to 97-98, it was just a few degrees cooler for most storms which enabled them to be snowy...the AO was largely negative in 97-98 as well but the Pacific influence was just too much, also I think it was more east based. Most storms though in 09-10 were awfully close to the 32 degree mark...I think 12/19 was the only storm that was not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Impressive low level jet Monday evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 There's inversion at 925mb on the 4km NAM bufkit soundings tomorrow evening. But any convection around could mix down some strong wind gusts. Meanwhile, 4km NAM has upper teens in NYC metro on Wednesday morning: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 I am beginning to get a bit nervous moving forward. DT, doesn't seem overly optimistic either. Pattern looks rather blah right through Dec 10-15th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 09-10 was awfully similar to 97-98, it was just a few degrees cooler for most storms which enabled them to be snowy...the AO was largely negative in 97-98 as well but the Pacific influence was just too much, also I think it was more east based. Most storms though in 09-10 were awfully close to the 32 degree mark...I think 12/19 was the only storm that was not. 2/5-6 for those who had snow was also cold, low to mid 20's. And to a lesser degree, 2/26-27 dipped down into the mid 20's but only after a day's worth of white rain. 2/10 was actually above freezing for most of the event. I think my ratios were 6:1 with 18.5" of snow. That was some serious paste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 2/5-6 for those who had snow was also cold, low to mid 20's. And to a lesser degree, 2/26-27 dipped down into the mid 20's but only after a day's worth of white rain. 2/10 was actually above freezing for most of the event. I think my ratios were 6:1 with 18.5" of snow. That was some serious paste. The 2/26 storm created its own cold air. There was really none anywhere in the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 0z Nam has temps in the upper 20s for NYC on Tuesday. Looks like the high will be reached overnight Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 I am beginning to get a bit nervous moving forward. DT, doesn't seem overly optimistic either. Pattern looks rather blah right through Dec 10-15th December 10-15? That's a long time. Why are you getting nervous? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 December 10-15? That's a long time. Why are you getting nervous? He posted a this week in weather, and from thanksgiving week till then atleast(could be longer) he talks about cutters because of no blocking. And slightly above average temps. epic bust in the making? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 He posted a this week in weather, and from thanksgiving week till then atleast(could be longer) he talks about cutters because of no blocking. And slightly above average temps. epic bust in the making? Epic bust for him or for everyone who said that this winter will be great? Just relax, it's only the middle of November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Epic bust for him or for everyone who said that this winter will be great? Just relax, it's only the middle of November. We are beginning to see what the pattern might be this winter by this period, and yes people are still high on this winter, but most of them are now showing signs of what could go wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 We are beginning to see what the pattern might be this winter by this period, and yes people are still high on this winter, but most of them are now showing signs of what could go wrong. Who are showing signs?I don't think anyone is worried about this upcoming pattern. This pattern looks to get mild but it should be brief. Many people are saying that blocking should get going by the first week of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Its snowing Too bad it isn't gonna last long lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 I am beginning to get a bit nervous moving forward. DT, doesn't seem overly optimistic either. Pattern looks rather blah right through Dec 10-15thThe stratosphere can just flip the switch at anytime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Almost every source for weather that I have seen are calling for a colder and snowier winter then normal. Its only november and most were anticipating a warm November. Every pattern has to relax..can not lock cold in from november thru the end of feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 We are beginning to see what the pattern might be this winter by this period, and yes people are still high on this winter, but most of them are now showing signs of what could go wrong. Not sure how old you are, so don't take this personal. I am 28 years old, have been frequenting wx boards since 1999-2000 winter. I am not a meteorologist, just a hobbyist who has been looking at wx models are close to 15-16 years. If you were expecting wall to wall cold and snow you are in for a rude awakening. Even the coldest winters all have warm spells, and even some of the best winters of all time didn't get going until January or even later. This hobby is brutal and unforgiving. You need to learn be patient or it is the wrong hobby for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Teleconnect, do yourself a favor and don't look at anything wx related until Dec 1st, it will save you a lot of angst, trust me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 We are beginning to see what the pattern might be this winter by this period, and yes people are still high on this winter, but most of them are now showing signs of what could go wrong. And what meteorological schools have you gone to in order to make this prediction? Where is your phD from? Seriously, anyone who isn't an actual met or pro forecaster should just stop thinking they can predict the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Not sure how old you are, so don't take this personal. I am 28 years old, have been frequenting wx boards since 1999-2000 winter. I am not a meteorologist, just a hobbyist who has been looking at wx models are close to 15-16 years. If you were expecting wall to wall cold and snow you are in for a rude awakening. Even the coldest winters all have warm spells, and even some of the best winters of all time didn't get going until January or even later. This hobby is brutal and unforgiving. You need to learn be patient or it is the wrong hobby for you. The weather is like a souffle. It will either rise or it won't... there's not a damn thing you can do about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 And what meteorological schools have you gone to in order to make this prediction? Where is your phD from? Seriously, anyone who isn't an actual met or pro forecaster should just stop thinking they can predict the weather. Nobody can accurately predict weather, pro met or not...mother nature does her own thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Nobody can accurately predict weather, pro met or not...mother nature does her own thing. So if we don't end up with a cold and snowy winter it wouldnt be a bust because nobody can accurately predict it anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 So if we don't end up with a cold and snowy winter it wouldnt be a bust because nobody can accurately predict it anyway It would still be a bust since its not what they called for, no matter if they can't predict it accurately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxwell03 Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Not sure how old you are, so don't take this personal. I am 28 years old, have been frequenting wx boards since 1999-2000 winter. I am not a meteorologist, just a hobbyist who has been looking at wx models are close to 15-16 years. If you were expecting wall to wall cold and snow you are in for a rude awakening. Even the coldest winters all have warm spells, and even some of the best winters of all time didn't get going until January or even later. This hobby is brutal and unforgiving. You need to learn be patient or it is the wrong hobby for you. Case in point last winter, which featured multiple torches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Even some of the best winters have a couple of torches. It even happens during El Nino winters. 1957-58, 1977-78, 2002-03 and 2009-10 are the main analogies for such an occurrence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 It would still be a bust since its not what they called for, no matter if they can't predict it accurately.Quite honestly, I don't think anyone with even the slightest bit of meteorological knowledge would ever predict a frigid, snowy winter nonstop from December through March. A few significant storms, with one of them being a very significant snowstorm, with a few smaller events or clippers combined with shots of cold air on and off.....could make for a winter MUCH above average snow and below average temps. Last winter we got a ton of snow and it was very cold.....and how much snow did we get in the last part of the winter? Not much. All in all, nothing is set in stone, yes, but if we get no snow through December 5th or so, it doesn't mean that the forecast for winter has busted. This winter I'm sure will have shots of warmth, even if it turns out to be an incredible winter. Give it time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Nobody can accurately predict weather, pro met or not...mother nature does her own thing. So if all weather outcomes are predetermined and we humans are ill-equipped to project them, then all of our musing and prognosticating is just one big exercise in futility? Why then are you wasting your time even reading my post right now, let alone following the weather generally? Come on man! Weather is a scientific hobby Posts like your last few tonight don't contribute much to the discussion and, at the very least, should be reserved for the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Teleconnect, do yourself a favor and don't look at anything wx related until Dec 1st, it will save you a lot of angst, trust me. Probably the best thing to keep in mind. Don't forget some of our analogs like 2002 or 2009 were not wall to wall cold and snow. 2009 took off after mid December and 2002 was basically mild if it weren't for the early December storm and Xmas. I'm going to stop obsessing over models and just let things play out naturally. I'll still go with first week of Dexember for possible first snows but it could easily be beyond mid December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 If you start looking at the EURO in the long range you can start seeing hints of the block over the top starting to form in december. This is far from written in stone but CURRENTLY they're are great signs that winter will be trying to lock itself in as we head into december. Dont understand why some members are dismissing winter november 17th. Look for changes down the road and you'll see day by day they are starting to shift ever so slightly towards better blocking, cold in the east and ridging in the west. They're is no reason to be concerned right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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