Weathergun Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 18z GFS had the same thing as the Euro but further north. Looks like the new 12z GFS crushes anything to the south. The Euro is more amplified with northern stream shortwave. No southern stream interaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 The Euro is more amplified with northern stream shortwave. No southern stream interaction. GFS develops a lakes cutter next Sunday into Monday. Need a -NAO to help our area get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 GFS develops a lakes cutter next Sunday into Monday. Need a -NAO to help our area get snow. which there are no signs of developing in the near to medium range future - little frozen precip in the metro until further notice - we are living on the wrong side of the tracks http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014111612/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 18z GFS had the same thing as the Euro but further north. Looks like the new 12z GFS crushes anything to the south. I think we still have a chance with that system, and who knows about the mid-long range. Models are even flip flopping about the first storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 The 12z Euro now shows nothing for the end of the week. Not really suprised. The Euro has been too amplified with northern shortwaves, in fast flow of late. The next system will be warmer and further west, because it amplifies way too early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 The 12z Euro now shows nothing for the end of the week. Not really suprised. The Euro has been too amplified with northern shortwaves, in fast flow of late. The next system will be warmer and further west, because it amplifies way too early. pattern is not good if you like snowstorms on the east coast http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014111612/ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_10.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Still early relax everyone it's Noveber not January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Still early relax everyone it's Noveber not January I'm still very optimistic about the winter. But the 500mb pattern doesn't look supportive of significant winter storms through at least Thanksgiving around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Most El Niño years are better later in the winter. 2010 had the major storm in late December which almost wasn't due to the progressive flow. I wouldn't worry at all based on what's happening now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 The warm Tues train continues . 60 on the 18th and again on the 25th as per 12z Euro . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 I'm still very optimistic about the winter. But the 500mb pattern doesn't look supportive of significant winter storms through at least Thanksgiving around here. you said it yourself, its November. Pattern in the longer range is starting to show promising changes in both the atlantic and pacific side. Patience Is prudent here, not expecting anything this month to be honest. would much rather have warm before the winter cold gets here for good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 The warm Tues train continues . 60 on the 18th and again on the 25th as per 12z Euro . This Tuesday? Looks like highs in the 30s though at midnight it'll still be warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 This Tuesday? Looks like highs in the 30s though at midnight it'll still be warm Check Midnight temps on Euro looks like 60 to me at KNYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Agreed. Why hello there -NAO we've missed you! That's a nice west based blocking pattern to start early dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Check Midnight temps on Euro looks like 60 to me at KNYC. OK gfs has the front through by then so we'll see. Next Sunday looks warm though with cooler air moving in before Thanksgiving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 OK gfs has the front through by then so we'll see. Next Sunday looks warm though with cooler air moving in before Thanksgiving The weekend of the 28th - 29th real LR Euro ensembles look good . So far out there but was worth a mention . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 This looks like the first two Novembers in a row for NYC that the temperature drops below 25 in the 2000's http://www.mdl.nws.noaa.gov/~mos/mos/gfsmos_eval/moscomp.php?&sta=KNYC&cycle=12 November lows at NYC since 2000: 2000...23 2001...34 2002...24 2003...29 2004...29 2005...22 2006...35 2007...26 2008...23 2009...35 2010...34 2011...36 2012...31 2013...23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 This Tuesday? Looks like highs in the 30s though at midnight it'll still be warmYeah with the cold front coming thru in the evening, temps look to be dropping thru the 40's around midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Nice little sleet shower mixed with Rain occurring now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ebwx Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 We just had some very light rain/sleet move through approx. 5:55pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 We just had some very light rain/sleet move through approx. 5:55pm sleet here to just west of SI - also this setup looks interesting around Thanksgiving along the east coast http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111618/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 sleet here to just west of SI - also this setup looks interesting around Thanksgiving along the east coast http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111618/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40.png agreed it does look intriguing. we'll be getting more insight on that throughout the week that's for sure. still a slim hope for the upcoming weekend storm..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Sounds like ice pellets/sleet/rain falling here in Marlboro, NJ Monmouth County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Sounds like ice pellets/sleet/rain falling here in Marlboro, NJ Monmouth County. Sleet and rain has been fallen lightly on and off for the last hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 It's mostly rain now. But adds another Nov wintry day with T. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Sleet right now in Astoria, Queens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Sounds like ice pellets/sleet/rain falling here in Marlboro, NJ Monmouth County. First frozen of the year South shore Nassau. Sleet rain mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Sleet in southern Brooklyn now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Sleet here in westchester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Rain in west islip, SW Suffolk county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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