NEG NAO Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 and the 6Z Para loses the storm http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111606/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_23.png 0z Para for next weekend. Way different than the 0z GFS. It went south from the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Looks like the Euro went colder for the storm next weekend. Models are all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Looks like the Euro went colder for the storm next weekend. Models are all over the place. Not a surprise. Still 5-6 days out and will change some more. Want to see what this storm tuesday will do for the weekend storm as we get through this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 11/13: NYC: 48/36 (-7) EWR: 48/35 (-6) LGA: 48/38 (-6) JFK: 49/38 (-4) TTN: 46/33 (-7) 11/14: NYC: 42/35 (-9) EWR: 43/34 (-8) LGA: 44/36 (-9) JFK: 44/37 (-7) TTN: 41/31 (-10) 11/15: NYC: 42/33 (-10) EWR: 44/29 (-9) LGA: 42/34 (-11) JFK: 43/30 (-11) TTN: 43/28 (-10) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Not a surprise. Still 5-6 days out and will change some more. Want to see what this storm tuesday will do for the weekend storm as we get through this week. Agree. Here is the Euro from 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 It will be interesting too see if the ensemble mean eventually comes on board since it will be cold enough for some light snow if the vort is sharp enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Sat Nov 22 ..... snow goggle rating 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 It will be interesting too see if the ensemble mean eventually comes on board since it will be cold enough for some light snow if the vort is sharp enough. get_legacy_plot-web249-20141116085639-8960-0436.gif ( DAY 6 so pls do not take numbers to heart ) . But that's not a bad look .KNYC Sat Minus 7 at 850 - 29 at the surface , At 0z the OP and Control had a center come off the Delmarva . Just need it a tad sharper and we could be in biz next Sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 ( DAY 6 so pls do not take numbers to heart ) . But that's not a bad look .KNYC Sat Minus 7 at 850 - 29 at the surface , At 0z the OP and Control had a center come off the Delmarva . Just need it a tad sharper and we could be in biz next Sat New GFS looks like the Euro ensemble so that OP Euro needs to survive the under 120 test. The flow may be too fast for much amplification, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 New GFS looks like the Euro ensemble so that OP Euro needs to survive the under 120 test. The flow may be too fast for much amplification, but we'll see. gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_22.png That piece coming into cali kicks the trough east. Would like to see that disappear over the next day or 2 so the ridge can hang back and maybe the center can turn. Prob asking for too much . Hard to ask the OP to beat it's ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 GFS 06Z 200mb pattern for SAT NOV 22 the big picture outllook .... for good measure http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/06/gfs_npac_144_200_wnd_ht.gif PAC Flatline EKG for metro snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 That piece coming into cali kicks the trough east. Would like to see that disappear over the next day or 2 so the ridge can hang back and maybe the center can turn. Prob asking for too much . Hard to ask the OP to beat it's ensembles need some blocking as the NAO is not negative and when it is just slightly need to lock in some cold air and not have it escape causing the storms to go west of us http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 need some blocking as the NAO is not negative and when it is just slightly need to lock in some cold air and not have it escape causing the storms to go west of us http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif For me the problem is in the Pacific it's too progressive. Check out the jet that doorman posted. To be fair that negative is on the euro control too so I'm not sure why the 0z OP of the euro is missing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 need some blocking as the NAO is not negative and when it is just slightly need to lock in some cold air and not have it escape causing the storms to go west of us http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif Still not in a reliable range for any model so this is liable to change many times. Pacific doesnt look too good as the flow is way too quick for any kind of noteworthy amplification on the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 For me the problem is in the Pacific it's too progressive. Check out the jet that doorman posted. To be fair that negative is on the euro control too so I'm not sure why the 0z OP of the euro is missing it. if we could fiqure out why and how models react to all the mixture and tons of data that is fed into them we would have it made ! Very complex and they all for the most part react differently because they are not programmed the same because of known flaws they re- programmed the GFS and that product is now called the Para GFS ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 For me the problem is in the Pacific it's too progressive. Check out the jet that doorman posted. To be fair that negative is on the euro control too so I'm not sure why the 0z OP of the euro is missing it. Flow is fast with a +Pna? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 12z Nam shows highs below freezing for NYC on Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 It's impressive to see strong Arctic front activity here in November two years in a row as November has been very mild since the late 90's. 2013 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Still not in a reliable range for any model so this is liable to change many times. Pacific doesnt look too good as the flow is way too quick for any kind of noteworthy amplification on the EC. in other words we are going to hope for some frozen precip on the edges of any events until this favorable pattern that is forecasted to develop establishes itself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 in other words we are going to hope for some frozen precip on the edges of any events until this favorable pattern that is forecasted to develop establishes itself thats my opinion. Unless we get a transient block or any kind of blocking mechanism that can force cyclogenesis far enough offshore so we dont get flooded with warm air. Yea we can get snow but its not gonna be easy with the current setup IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Flow is fast with a +Pna? So in this case Day 6 the Ridge is displaced and pushes the trough east . Then the Ridge returns but for how long as the ensembles crash the trough back into the west coast day 15 . Day 15 actually looks great to me , but between day 5- 8 the west coast is fast . Hard to snow on the EC IMO if you have the jet coming into the west coast it pushes the pattern across . Check out the PNA dip here . That`s the system coming through at the wrong time . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Just give me any storminess. I know it won't snow but bring anything on. Tomorrow should be good with sharp temperature changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 The 0z Euro is only model so far that develops a coastal low at the end of the week. All other models show a low near the Great Lakes. The Euro digs the shortwave more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 So in this case Day 6 the Ridge is displaced and pushes the trough east . Then the Ridge returns but for how long as the ensembles crash the trough back into the west coast day 15 . Day 15 actually looks great to me , but between day 5- 8 the west coast is fast . Hard to snow on the EC IMO if you have the jet coming into the west coast it pushes the pattern across . Check out the PNA dip here . That`s the system coming through at the wrong time . It's good to see the Euro ensembles moving to a classic El Nino look here for December. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_11_2014/post-7472-0-25334700-1416151946.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 It's good to see the Euro ensembles moving to a classic El Nino look here for December. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_11_2014/post-7472-0-25334700-1416151946.png comp.gif Liking the way december looks through the middle of this month. not going to dig too much into it though since i got grilled for it yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 It's good to see the Euro ensembles moving to a classic El Nino look here for December. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_11_2014/post-7472-0-25334700-1416151946.png comp.gif Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Liking the way december looks through the middle of this month. not going to dig too much into it though since i got grilled for it yesterday You were singed not grilled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 You were singed not grilled. Ahhh so it couldve been worse is what your saying? Just got ahead of myself paul, regardless i am starting to be somewhat encouraged regarding december BUT still too far away as you said. Also agree with you on the day 15 threat (assuming thats the storm around turkey day) the setup in la la land looks alot better than next weekend CURRENTLY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Just give me any storminess. I know it won't snow but bring anything on. Tomorrow should be good with sharp temperature changesAgree, into the 50's tomorrow,not much above 32 Tuesday(with an annoying midnight high)then close to 20 Wednesday morning, along with an inch or so of rain...sounds good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 The 0z Euro is only model so far that develops a coastal low at the end of the week. All other models show a low near the Great Lakes. The Euro digs the shortwave more. 18z GFS had the same thing as the Euro but further north. Looks like the new 12z GFS crushes anything to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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