bluewave Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Didn't the weeklies show this period would be above normal a few weeks ago? November looked overall above normal for the 2M's. How can they be faithfully used now! You have to figure out what is driving the atmosphere to do what it is currently doing and what it might do over the next 30 days with these same factors correctly predicted. Get the driving mechanisms right and you will beat the slow to change weeklies. While Euro weeklies do well weeks 1-2, the skill falls off pretty quickly weeks 3-4. Here was the 10-30 week 3 which is this week coming up. It got the -EPO correct but missed the strength of the trough and cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 While Euro weeklies do well weeks 1-2, the skill falls off pretty quickly weeks 3-4. Here was the 10-30 week 3 which is this week coming up. It got the -EPO correct but missed the strength of the trough and cold. 500za_week3_bg_na.png The euro weeklies week 4 s have been brutal. Lucky for us so has the JMA monthlies because DEC is not pretty. Like I said earlier. I just look 2 weeks out. The Euro ensembles are VG west of the Rockies so I just look for the ridge positions on the west coast and hope for a low in the GOA then I just extrapolate that on the EC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 The long range OP Euro had a really big cold bias for us with the Friday low. Check how far north the 850 zero line came on the run today from the day 10 Monday extravaganza. 10.gif 6.gif That appendage running into S cali really kicked the EC ridge up in front of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 That appendage running into S cali really kicked the EC ridge up in front of it. Yeah, that's why I really like to use the ensemble mean beyond day 5. There is just something about the OP than can give really amped up solutions day 8-10 with the PV in Canada too far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 This will make Yanks fan happy . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Not a bad look on the 12z Euro ensembles day 10.5 - 15 . GOA low back and is not as progressive as it was at 0Z . There is blocking on the west shore of Hudson bay and the trough is in the east . You will see the depth of that trough deeper Just after Thanksgiving . So the warm up get muted IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Normal high temps still around 54... 42 here yesterday and today for highs... looks like Tuesday- Wednesday stay in 30's... pretty nice for mid November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Normal high temps still around 54... 42 here yesterday and today for highs... looks like Tuesday- Wednesday stay in 30's... pretty nice for mid November. Yup climo is still pretty warm so it shouldn't be so shocking not to expect any frozen precip this entire month and into December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 This will make Yanks fan happy . Another too cold OP 10 day solution which is very different of the ensemble mean. That day 10 OP loves to swing for the fences . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Not a bad look on the 12z Euro ensembles day 10.5 - 15 . GOA low back and is not as progressive as it was at 0Z . There is blocking on the west shore of Hudson bay and the trough is in the east . You will see the depth of that trough deeper Just after Thanksgiving . So the warm up get muted IMO. The warm up will only be a day or two of +5 to +10 ahead of the front and low moving up to the Lakes or Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Another too cold OP 10 day solution which is very different of the ensemble mean. That day 10 OP loves to swing for the fences . get_legacy_plot-web248-20141115210702-26741-0427.gif Yeh looks like another U.P snowstorm . But if you blend the OP at D10 and Ensembles can Chicago pull off a big snow ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Yeh looks like another U.P snowstorm . But if you blend the OP at D10 and Ensembles can Chicago pull off a big snow ? It will be interesting to see. But that Euro 360 you just posted looks like December 2002. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_11_2014/post-7472-0-98979800-1416084655.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Except for a couple days early thanksgiving week pattern looks good through November... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 It will be interesting to see. But that Euro 360 you just posted looks like December 2002. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_11_2014/post-7472-0-98979800-1416084655.png 02.png I like the 02 03 SSTA analog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 This is what we need to produce a snowstorm around here - the 18Z PGFS is showing a large strong HP anchored in southern Canada with blocking to preventing it from moving out and forcing the approaching storm underneath it and then also forcing redevelopment to our south http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111518/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_37.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111518/gfsp_asnow_us_40.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 It will be interesting to see. But that Euro 360 you just posted looks like December 2002. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_11_2014/post-7472-0-98979800-1416084655.png 02.png December 2002 was not exactly the greatest month, that counters all those who argue a not so great December cannot mean a good winter...after the 6th-7th that month was mostly above normal and we got lucky with some backlash snows Christmas night, otherwise that month would have averaged above normal with about 5 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 December 2002 was not exactly the greatest month, that counters all those who argue a not so great December cannot mean a good winter...after the 6th-7th that month was mostly above normal and we got lucky with some backlash snows Christmas night, otherwise that month would have averaged above normal with about 5 inches of snow. Most of the country was above normal west of the Ohio valley with minus 1s and 2s showing up right on the EC Xmas day however made the month for me up on the N shore of long island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 I wonder if the low shown on the Euro for next weekend can trend further south. Right now looks like rain for the coast. Gfs just did that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Dropping like a rock here 28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 where is the link to prove it ? Better start looking at the PGFS in the link I posted above a few posts......... I thought I saw it posted somewhere that the verification scores for the parallel model are essentially the same so far? The map you posted is impressive in that 2/3 of the country looks to have snow cover. Of course, we all know it won't verify that way. Looks like western NY (Buffalo given possible persistent WSW flow) might clean up in this upcoming second round of lake effect. Down to 26 here after a chilly high of 41. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Down to 28° here curently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 37 right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Going to have at least 12 hours sub freezing tonight. Slipped under 32F at around 6pm, now 24.2F. Akin to a late December night out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 0z GFS looks nothing like the 18z GFS. No cold air in sight for next weekend and barely any precip. Flip Flop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 The euro weeklies week 4 s have been brutal. Lucky for us so has the JMA monthlies because DEC is not pretty. Like I said earlier. I just look 2 weeks out. The Euro ensembles are VG west of the Rockies so I just look for the ridge positions on the west coast and hope for a low in the GOA then I just extrapolate that on the EC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 The euro weeklies week 4 s have been brutal. Lucky for us so has the JMA monthlies because DEC is not pretty. Like I said earlier. I just look 2 weeks out. The Euro ensembles are VG west of the Rockies so I just look for the ridge positions on the west coast and hope for a low in the GOA then I just extrapolate that on the EC when does the JMA monthlys usually come out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 0z Para for next weekend. Way different than the 0z GFS. It went south from the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 00Z ECMWF has a nearly 25 degree Celsius drop in 850 mb temperatures from 00Z Tuesday to 00Z Wednesday, not something you often see around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 False radar returns? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Got down to 18F here with the clear sky overnight, not bad for mid Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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