November 2014

[Sickman]

it makes sense considering climate change will make this winter especially interesting because you will have cold from now until late february. Think about it there's more snow cover now than when this warm up was forecasted. Now the models are considering that and also the fact that days are relatively very short now. Uv index is in the 2-6 range. Pretty much a great signal that we will have a very long and snowy winter. That's my opinion. Now this could change but my prediction is a relaxation will occur but not to an extent the euro has been advertising. Remember guys models are only outlooks not forecasts or guidance other people like to call them. I still think we need to use common sense and look at all the signals which are great and I think negative NAO will occur once the relaxation ends which should be right after Thanksgiving. I expect a big miller A winter storm for the northeast a few days after Thanksgiving and blocking may be involved by than. Noreaster

I don't even...

 

Okay, look man... it's early in the season, so let's nip this in the bud.  Posts like this are looked upon very poorly here.  Unless you have some type of sound backing for your reasoning, this amounts to nothing more than wishcasting, and that will not bode well for your continued participation here.

 

Consider this a friendly heads-up.

[jm1220]

I don't even...

Okay, look man... it's early in the season, so let's nip this in the bud. Posts like this are looked upon very poorly here. Unless you have some type of sound backing for your reasoning, this amounts to nothing more than wishcasting, and that will not bode well for your continued participation here.

Consider this a friendly heads-up.

Hopefully these are enforced especially strictly this winter with some of these posters. It's this bad on Nov 15th, I can't imagine how bad these guys will be on Jan 15th.

[REDMK6GLI]

it makes sense considering climate change will make this winter especially interesting because you will have cold from now until late february

[NycStormChaser]

The rulers have spoken lol

[bluewave]

The MOS has 25/38 at JFK on Wednesday for a new record low and a -15 departure.

[96blizz]

Seems this Sunday night/Monday deal is being severely underplayed.  I presume b/c it will likely be nearly all rain for the big cities?  Could be a nasty winter storm for NW/NJ/Poconos interior HV.  Temps were/are colder this AM (21) than forecasted and we all know how stubborn this type of air mass can be to leave...

[WintersGrasp]

lol.. is this for real?

I think it's got to be a joke lol. It's a bunch of meteorological terminology thrown together with no basis. But anyway, I personally think that since days are getting shorter, this might be a better season for snow than last season

[danstorm]

I don't even...

Okay, look man... it's early in the season, so let's nip this in the bud. Posts like this are looked upon very poorly here. Unless you have some type of sound backing for your reasoning, this amounts to nothing more than wishcasting, and that will not bode well for your continued participation here.

Consider this a friendly heads-up.

Remember, models are only outlooks, they aren't guidance.

[MJO812]

It's a 288hr prog, of a storm that likely won't be there on the next run.

Still there on the GFS

[bluewave]

We could be talking about a late season severe thunderstorm outbreak for the Southeast

if the Euro ensemble mean is correct in about 10 days. We would get

back into the 50's with maybe a few 60 degree readings after the drop into the 20's

this week.

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

The MOS has 25/38 at JFK on Wednesday for a new record low and a -15 departure.

So my tomatoes will finally die. -15 in mid January and we are talking single digits.

I do have this aching suppression fear. Last march was torturous and even though I wasn't around to see it 77 keeps flashing in mind. I'll pass on brutal cold and very little snow. Unless it's super little ice age type stuff and the Long Island sound freezes, that I would love to see!

[bluewave]

So my tomatoes will finally die. -15 in mid January and we are talking single digits.

I do have this aching suppression fear. Last march was torturous and even though I wasn't around to see it 77 keeps flashing in mind. I'll pass on brutal cold and very little snow. Unless it's super little ice age type stuff and the Long Island sound freezes, that I would love to see!

 

I can still remember walking to the bus stop in the morning during that brutal 76-77 winter. The cold arrived in October

and continued right through the end of January before moderating in February. We haven't seen anything 

close to that kind of cold since then.

 

[SnowGoose69]

We could be talking about a late season severe thunderstorm outbreak for the Southeast

if the Euro ensemble mean is correct in about 10 days. We would get

back into the 50's with maybe a few 60 degree readings after the drop into the 20's

this week.

 

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.png

 

We'll see, the Euro has been trying to warm us up late in the period several times the last 10 days and it seems to be muted or pushed back.  The AO and NAO may still be averaging slightly negative, if thats the case I'm not sure I see us getting all that warm

[MJO812]

We'll see, the Euro has been trying to warm us up late in the period several times the last 10 days and it seems to be muted or pushed back.  The AO and NAO may still be averaging slightly negative, if thats the case I'm not sure I see us getting all that warm

Latest AO,NAO and PNA readings.

AO

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

 

Looks like it will stay negative. Some members want to make it positive.

 

NAO looks to go positve and then after that, some members have it going negative.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

 

PNA looks to stay positive

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.shtml

[REDMK6GLI]

We'll see, the Euro has been trying to warm us up late in the period several times the last 10 days and it seems to be muted or pushed back. The AO and NAO may still be averaging slightly negative, if thats the case I'm not sure I see us getting all that warm

I do expect some pull back end of this month into the second week of december. One harbinger that looks to kick the blocking into place over greenland is the substantial stratospheric warming over E. Siberia and how that is propogating, its my understanding that it should allow the blocking to get started and become more established as we head deeper into december.

Also hard to argue this pattern after relaxation to NOT go back to much colder than normal. The SSTA's currently over the Central and eastern pacific equitorial regions being warmer closer to the central pacific, the cold pool off SW alaska, Warm SST's along the west coast and furnaced atlantic coast and the cold pool south of greenland. The setup compared to 76-77 is as close as you can get to this year. Obviously more goes into forecasting return to consistent cold but look pretty promising right now and going according to schedule for december to set up january/february to be our coldest/snowiest months

[bluewave]

We'll see, the Euro has been trying to warm us up late in the period several times the last 10 days and it seems to be muted or pushed back.  The AO and NAO may still be averaging slightly negative, if thats the case I'm not sure I see us getting all that warm

 

It will probably be a brief warm up ahead of the low that cuts through the Great Lakes  and then cooling off again

as the front passes through. It's been very hard for us in recent years to maintain cold conditions without

at least a brief warm up after. Just go back and look at the daily departures following -10 or lower

days and you will see days approaching or exceeding +10 following the cold outbreaks. Even the

GFS which can have a cold bias at those ranges pushes 60 here Thanksgiving week ahead of the

front and low.

[PB GFI]

I do expect some pull back end of this month into the second week of december. One harbinger that looks to kick the blocking into place over greenland is the substantial stratospheric warming over E. Siberia and how that is propogating, its my understanding that it should allow the blocking to get started and become more established as we head deeper into december.

Also hard to argue this pattern after relaxation to NOT go back to much colder than normal. The SSTA's currently over the Central and eastern pacific equitorial regions being warmer closer to the central pacific, the cold pool off SW alaska, Warm SST's along the west coast and furnaced atlantic coast and the cold pool south of greenland. The setup compared to 76-77 is as close as you can get to this year. Obviously more goes into forecasting return to consistent cold but look pretty promising right now and going according to schedule for december to set up january/february to be our coldest/snowiest months

You and JB are wrong . Look at the Atlantic in 02 - 03 . Much better analog .

[snywx]

Seems this Sunday night/Monday deal is being severely underplayed.  I presume b/c it will likely be nearly all rain for the big cities?  Could be a nasty winter storm for NW/NJ/Poconos interior HV.  Temps were/are colder this AM (21) than forecasted and we all know how stubborn this type of air mass can be to leave...

 

This is looking like a non-event even for us up here in the far interior. Maybe a little wintry precip at the onset but thats it.

[PB GFI]

It will probably be a brief warm up ahead of the low that cuts through the Great Lakes  and then cooling off again

as the front passes through. It's been very hard for us in recent years to maintain cold conditions without

at least a brief warm up after. Just go back and look at the daily departures following -10 or lower

days and you will see days approaching or exceeding +10 following the cold outbreaks. Even the

GFS which can have a cold bias at those ranges pushes 60 here Thanksgiving week ahead of the

front and low.

This is a very progressive pattern . To me although not warm in the LR that looks like Polar Pacific air not Arctic in nature so those troughs can be deceiving .

The blocking over the top seems to be missing here  and as I you loop through I  I focus S of the Aleutians and the trough gets replaced by a ridge and vice versa over time .

 

So until you see that ridge go up on the West coast and hook over the top I think the pattern is transient .

That's not warm by any means but that`s not low level cold air and you will not lock the cold off with this set up.

Then again it`s November so that`s ok with me .

[REDMK6GLI]

You and JB are wrong . Look at the Atlantic in 02 - 03 . Much better analog .

Still pretty close match, but agreed 02-03' matches up better. Summing it up, no panic should be present over what is going on right now

[NEG NAO]

Until we can get some serious blocking with a -NAO these storms are going to cut west of us through the ohio valley instead of redeveloping south of us off the coast and locking in the cold HP

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111512/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_27.png

[MJO812]

^^Agree. The rising of the epo isn't helping either.

[REDMK6GLI]

Until we can get some serious blocking with a -NAO these storms are going to cut west of us through the ohio valley instead of redeveloping south of us off the coast and locking in the cold HP

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111512/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_27.png

Think thats already been established. Next weekend looks sort of intriguing but unless we get some sort of transient block since the -NAO is on vacation that too will cut and flood us with warm air and rain.

Looking very likely that our first widespread measurable snow for the coastal plain will have to wait until late in december when the cold air may make a return. That is also dependent on whether or not the stratospheric warming will actually give greenland a kick in the butt and start building higher heights ideally a west based -NAO

[MJO812]

Next weekend is now rain on the gfs.

[NEG NAO]

Think thats already been established. Next weekend looks sort of intriguing but unless we get some sort of transient block since the -NAO is on vacation that too will cut and flood us with warm air and rain.

Looking very likely that our first widespread measurable snow for the coastal plain will have to wait until late in december when the cold air may make a return. That is also dependent on whether or not the stratospheric warming will actually give greenland a kick in the butt and start building higher heights ideally a west based -NAO

Late December ??? thats long range and we have no idea how things are going to work out before then .All you need is a transient block with the right set up and timing to deliver a snowstorm inbetween now and late December....

[REDMK6GLI]

Late December ??? thats long range and we have no idea how things are going to work out before then .All you need is a transient block with the right set up and timing to deliver a snowstorm inbetween now and late December....

Your right we do have no idea how it will work out before then but i did mention if we did have a brief transient block and also timing we could still muster up a snowstorm. However with no signs of any notable blocking around greenland through the end of this month chances of getting a snow event at the coast arent high at all. Not to mention looks like EPO is gonna turn positive and pacific ridging will take a break for a bit.

[PB GFI]

Your right we do have no idea how it will work out before then but i did mention if we did have a brief transient block and also timing we could still muster up a snowstorm. However with no signs of any notable blocking around greenland through the end of this month chances of getting a snow event at the coast arent high at all. Not to mention looks like EPO is gonna turn positive and pacific ridging will take a break for a bit.

The EPO is going up and go down because the pattern In the Pacific is progressive. As a ridge develops it goes up and then as the next trough swings east it will reverse. It's not because the SST s changed .

Some of you guys don't know what you are looking at .

Try not to look into " late December " it's foolish. Take 2 weeks at a time. It's really all you can see from here.

[CIK62]

Didn't the weeklies show this period would be above normal a few weeks ago?   November looked overall above normal for the 2M's.   How can they be faithfully used now!    You have to figure out what is driving the atmosphere to do what it is currently  doing and what it might do over the next 30 days with these same factors correctly predicted.   Get the driving mechanisms right and you will beat the slow to change weeklies.

[REDMK6GLI]

The EPO is going up and go down because the pattern In the Pacific is progressive. As a ridge develops it goes up and then as the next trough swings east it will reverse. It's not because the SST s changed .

Some of you guys don't know what you are looking at .

Try not to look into " late December " it's foolish. Take 2 weeks at a time. It's really all you can see from here.

I reallt didnt reference the SSTA's as the game changer. just more of whats happening the next 10-14 days with the pattern relaxing and reloading and the lack of blocking that is causing the storms to cut. Transient blocks would help greatly but maybe i shouldve clarified by saying currently snows for the coast doesnt look likely for the next two weeks IMO.

I can see my mistake was mentioning something outside of 14 days and i agree

[MJO812]

I wonder if the low shown on the Euro for next weekend can trend further south. Right now looks like rain for the coast.