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November 2014


Rtd208

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The timing is wrong as the coming cold snap will be relaxing around that time as the big high moves off the

coast and we get into the mild return flow.

Push that ridging up into Canada and it changes everything. As progged, it's not a great pattern for snow, but that was a day ten ensemble mean.

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0z GFS has a nice little snow event for next weekend. Looks like a possible overrunning event. A lot of cold air around for the precip.

 

Para doesn't look bad for next weekend

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111500/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111500/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_29.png

 

Rain and snow

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it makes sense considering climate change will make this winter especially interesting because you will have cold from now until late february. Think about it there's more snow cover now than when this warm up was forecasted. Now the models are considering that and also the fact that days are relatively very short now. Uv index is in the 2-6 range. Pretty much a great signal that we will have a very long and snowy winter. That's my opinion. Now this could change but my prediction is a relaxation will occur but not to an extent the euro has been advertising. Remember guys models are only outlooks not forecasts or guidance other people like to call them. I still think we need to use common sense and look at all the signals which are great and I think negative NAO will occur once the relaxation ends which should be right after Thanksgiving. I expect a big miller A winter storm for the northeast a few days after Thanksgiving and blocking may be involved by than. Noreaster

 

lol.. is this for real? 

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