IsentropicLift Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Are you looking at 3 hr panels of 6 hr precip? 6 hr precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 When you count the individual panels up on the 12z GFS, it should have totaled out to be more in the 1.50-2.00" range. Instead it's spitting out under an inch. I'm not sure why that's happening. ever consider the reason might be because its a flawed model and that is why it is being upgraded to the PGFS ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 ever consider the reason might be because its a flawed model and that is why it is being upgraded to the PGFS ??? That would be beyond flawed and a serious issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 6 hr precip. So yes, you are adding up 3 hr depictions of 6 hr precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 So yes, you are adding up 3 hr depictions of 6 hr precip? No, I'm looking at every other panel, and adding them up. I assume averages, so if I see a 0.25-0.50" panel I use 0.375". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Money shot..Because posting epic porn is fun. It's actually 964mb here. Deepens more than 30mb in 12 hours. 40-45kt winds on the backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 That frame sponsored by the National Alliance of Turkeys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Money shot..Because posting epic porn is fun. It's actually 964mb here. Deepens more than 30mb in 12 hours. 40-45kt winds on the backside. Cold turkey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 NSFW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 JFK could come close to record low territory next Wednesday. 11/19 27 in 2008 27 in 1997 27 in 1986 NEW YORK CITY-KENNEDY KJFK GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 11/14/2014 1200 UTC FHR 24 36| 48 60| 72 84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192 SAT 15| SUN 16| MON 17| TUE 18| WED 19| THU 20| FRI 21|SAT CLIMO N/X 32 45| 35 49| 40 50| 36 42| 26 40| 32 46| 34 43| 37 38 53 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Anthony, if you're going to hack the GFS, at least have the bombogenisis occur while it's south of here instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Anthony, if you're going to hack the GFS, at least have the bombogenisis occur while it's south of here instead. Who would have thought Anthony was in cahoots with the Chinese? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Anthony, if you're going to hack the GFS, at least have the bombogenisis occur while it's south of here instead. Agreed 972mb should be at the benchmark not north of it, ant has failed us on his latest breach of the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 JFK could come close to record low territory next Wednesday. 11/19 27 in 2008 27 in 1997 27 in 1986 NEW YORK CITY-KENNEDY KJFK GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 11/14/2014 1200 UTC FHR 24 36| 48 60| 72 84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192 SAT 15| SUN 16| MON 17| TUE 18| WED 19| THU 20| FRI 21|SAT CLIMO N/X 32 45| 35 49| 40 50| 36 42| 26 40| 32 46| 34 43| 37 38 53 Highly impressive stuff this time of year with teens to the N&W. How about in the SE though? That's gotta be really impressive with a freeze down to northern FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Highly impressive stuff this time of year with teens to the N&W. How about in the SE though? That's gotta be really impressive with a freeze down to northern FL. Yeah, the second coldest Denver November low temperature on record and a -43 departure is the real deal. The three day 77 degree temperature drop was the third greatest on record. https://twitter.com/NWSBoulder/status/532874660686213120 https://twitter.com/NWSBoulder/status/533051341187211264 9 69 45 57 16 8 0 0.00 0.0 0 9.3 17 200 M M 7 20 19010 64 13 39 -2 26 0 0.02 T 0 14.5 43 40 M M 8 18 54 4011 16 5 11 -29 54 0 0.01 0.1 T 9.8 17 40 M M 10 18 21 3012 6 -13 -3 -43 68 0 0.15 2.2 T 8.3 16 40 M M 8 18 18 1013 13 -14 0 -39 65 0 0.00 T 2 4.5 14 160 M M 6 8 14 160 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 CAA today with temps here not getting past 42 Degrees.... below forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Bombogenisis actually has some ensemble support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Bombogenisis actually has some ensemble support Rain....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Rain....... That will be our pattern relaxer cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Bombogenisis actually has some ensemble support who cares...its rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 who cares...its rain. He cares. He loves rain more than half of us love snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 He cares. He loves rain more than half of us love snow. oh he's one of them...rain is horrible. no matter the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 It's a 288hr prog, of a storm that likely won't be there on the next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Any energy coming out around D10 is going to cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 oh he's one of them...rain is horrible. no matter the season.don't bother responding to him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 oh he's one of them...rain is horrible. no matter the season. Tell that to parts of the SW. Rain is never horrible and without it we'd be screwed so I'll always welcome it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Any energy coming out around D10 is going to cut. ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.png Not necessarily. Just need to get that ridge to poke up into Canada more and you open the door. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Not necessarily. Just need to get that ridge to poke up into Canada more and you open the door. Yea that'd be our only hope of having an ideally placed LP system off the EC since we have no noteworthy blocking around greendland to speak of Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 I don't know what's worse, a premature panic for the next few weeks or analyzing a 288 LR Gfs storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Not necessarily. Just need to get that ridge to poke up into Canada more and you open the door. The timing is wrong as the coming cold snap will be relaxing around that time as the big high moves off the coast and we get into the mild return flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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