Snowlover11 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Here we go! West and warmer, east and colder! Knew it would come sooner or later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 ^^^^ which one is it? West or east? It doesn't make difference really. The colder solutions are drier and 925mb temps are still warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 The I posted the other day still applies. Get it together and stop freaking out over what might happen on day 5-7 on November 13th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldalex Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Can't believe I'm saying this so early in the season, but everyone needs to relax. We can't really expect much at this time in the year. Anything we do get is a bonus. I just hope the discourse this winter will be better than last year, when Scorched Earth had to be in-effect non-stop for a period. Let's just sit back and enjoy the ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 It was pretty much inevitable we would see a relaxation around late month into early December, it's rare for any patten to set in for more than 4-5 weeks, especially one like this so early on. The GFS also was hinting at a pattern change late in it's runs for awhile that's usually an indicator eventually it's coming. I expect by 12/10-12/15 we will go cold again and have a -NAO, I'm not even sure the relaxation period will be all that warm it may just be hostile for snow near the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Almost all of the gfs ensembles are south and east of the area for Monday with a few wrapped up solutions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Would rather have a relaxation in early dec rather then late dec early to mid jan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Would rather have a relaxation in early dec rather then late dec early to mid jan The worst time to have it is late January through late February that's basically what happened in 03-04..that's by far the best window for big snows you can afford a bad pattern any time before that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 I was looking back today at the dailies from throughout the area in November '76 and there were days in the 50's and even 60's at the end of the month, and that was an historic winter. I think one of the red taggers should pull an Aaron Rodgers and say "R-E-L-A-X" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 snow and rain here on Staten Island...36 degrees...I wouldn't worry about the pattern breaking down on the long range...it is after all two weeks away... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 10mb temps warming over Siberia. EP vector is also shifting upward. Maybe SSW event end of this month or early December. This could mean more high-latitude blocking by mid-December: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Well it's snowing here, .4" already with the grass covered. That's my boy who, like me growing up, can't sleep cause it's snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 0z GFS is a coastal hugger for Monday. Rain on the coast and snow well inland. Rain to snow on the GFS Para for the coast and snow inland. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111400/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111400/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_17.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111400/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_18.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxwell03 Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Dry slot popping along the border of Somerset and Middlesex counties. Can confirm, the precip is winding down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxwell03 Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Snow has resumed. 33F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 GFS and Euro have 850mb temperatures -12C next Tuesday and Wednesday. Which supports highs in the middle to upper 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Effective Nov.12 the CFSv2 doesnt look too bad for december. Ridging in the west, troughing in the east with below normal temps and higher heights in the greenland region. Hopefully some weenies will find some solace in this.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Chris the CFSv2 showed what looked like some pretty high hieghts in greenland. Gotta say the look wasnt all that bad after the pullback end of this month into the beginning of december Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 First day of what should be an overall 10 day to 2 week (11/14 - 11/26) cooldown with some significant negative departures within the period. Looks like Tue/Wed (1118 - 19) may be the coolest against normal. 11/13: NYC: 48/36 (-7) EWR: 48/35 (-6) LGA: 48/38 (-6) JFK: 49/38 (-4) TTN: 46/33 (-7) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 First day of what should be an overall 10 day to 2 week (11/14 - 11/26) cooldown with some significant negative departures within the period. Looks like Tue/Wed (1118 - 19) may be the coolest against normal. 11/13: NYC: 48/36 (-7) EWR: 48/35 (-6) LGA: 48/38 (-6) JFK: 49/38 (-4) TTN: 46/33 (-7) Looking like our first three cold Novembers in a row since 1995-1997. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 We are likely going to see a few double digit negative departures during this stretch especially Tues-Wed. Even with much milder temperatures to end the month it will be too difficult to eliminate those negative departures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 10mb temps warming over Siberia. EP vector is also shifting upward. Maybe SSW event end of this month or early December. This could mean more high-latitude blocking by mid-December: Fantastic news, and pretty much right on schedule. You want the warming to occur over Siberia at the middle to end of this month for a blocking event in Mid December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Rainstorm on the gfs for Monday. Looks like that will be the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Rainstorm on the gfs for Monday. Looks like that will be the case. I'm pretty sure that's always been the case. If anything it would only trend warmer if it's more amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Rainstorm on the gfs for Monday. Looks like that will be the case. Great news, it's november and the pattern is gettting active. Everything is progressing the Way it should. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Rainstorm on the gfs for Monday. Looks like that will be the case. Anthony with no blocking your gonna get two solutions, unless they're is rogue transient blocking. 1) phased and it will be a coastal hugger or inland runner and flooding the coast with warm air thanks to the furnaced atlantic ocean and southerly flow 2) weak and disorganized mess that slides out to sea with little in the form of precipitation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Great news, it's november and the pattern is gettting active. Everything is progressing the Way it should. Bingo! Also the stratospheric warming event in eastern siberia is important ingredient in getting blocking established over greenland. This cold then relaxation has been well documented and they're is literally no need to fear a stinker winter at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 When you count the individual panels up on the 12z GFS, it should have totaled out to be more in the 1.50-2.00" range. Instead it's spitting out under an inch. I'm not sure why that's happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 The GFS does have a little front end dump N&W. Perhaps on future runs we can get that CAD to hang on a bit longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 When you count the individual panels up on the 12z GFS, it should have totaled out to be more in the 1.50-2.00" range. Instead it's spitting out under an inch. I'm not sure why that's happening. Are you looking at 3 hr panels of 6 hr precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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