IsentropicLift Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 I'll kindly highly disagree, we have a HP sliding out into the Atlantic, it's pretty much a glorified cold front. GFS SE cold bias at total play here. Look at the thermal profiles... This is 850mb or about 5000' above sea level. It's below freezing away from the coast, and temps crash from here as the low passes. 925mb is above freezing, which is around 2500' above sea level, so a more intense precip rate would be able to bring down the colder air aloft and cool the column enough for a wet snow. We're also looking at surface temps around 33F, and that's based on a very low res map, so the surface is cold enough to get the job done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Easy does it folks way early in the game it's only mid fall.The last memorable snow i recall in late nov. was 1995 if my memory serves me.see ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Easy does it folks way early in the game it's only mid fall.The last memorable snow i recall in late nov. was 1995 if my memory serves me.see ya Forgetting the snow we had the week after Sandy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Forgetting the snow we had the week after Sandy? Very interesting system.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 I'll kindly highly disagree, we have a HP sliding out into the Atlantic, it's pretty much a glorified cold front. GFS SE cold bias at total play here. It depends how far nw of 95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 12z Euro looks a little better for the LHV ( tonight ) . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 12Z Euro for Monday is 55 , Plus 7 at 850 with Rain at KNYC . Looks nothing like the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 12Z Euro for Monday is 55 , Plus 7 at 850 with Rain at KNYC . Looks nothing like the GFS Ahhh model mayhem gotta love it paul. With the antecedent airmass and no real noteworthy blocking this storm has the best chance to deliver snow Well N&W of NYC unless it can get sufficient cold air wrapped around the back of it. However 9/10 times wraparound moisture never pans out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 euro always has a warm bias this far out it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Most of the gefs are like the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Way, way out in fantasy range, but the Parallel GFS for a few days now has been hinting at quite a warm up the day before Thanksgiving, possibly hitting the lower 70's. Lower 70s sounds extremely high. Such a warm up would kill those negative departures for the next 7 days. Lots of panic about December now from the forums. The METS suggest a mid December reload but don't sound too confident. In order for this to be a huge winter December has to produce something. I'm never going to put all my bags in a basket for Jan-Feb only to deliver a huge winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 12Z Euro for Monday is 55 , Plus 7 at 850 with Rain at KNYC . Looks nothing like the GFS This is all rain case closed even for areas well N&W besides maybe some mixing to start or end. The question is how cold of a rain it will be and QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Lower 70s sounds extremely high. Such a warm up would kill those negative departures for the next 7 days. Lots of panic about December now from the forums. The METS suggest a mid December reload but don't sound too confident. In order for this to be a huge winter December has to produce something. I'm never going to put all my bags in a basket for Jan-Feb only to deliver a huge winter The cool thing about the warm up on the GFS is that on Thanksgiving itself it drags a rather intense cold front through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 This is all rain case closed even for areas well N&W besides maybe some mixing to start or end. The question is how cold of a rain it will be and QPF. I think this is far front cut and dry. The only reason you don't see more snow on this graphic is because 925mb is warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Lower 70s sounds extremely high. Such a warm up would kill those negative departures for the next 7 days. Lots of panic about December now from the forums. The METS suggest a mid December reload but don't sound too confident. In order for this to be a huge winter December has to produce something. I'm never going to put all my bags in a basket for Jan-Feb only to deliver a huge winter We've had many warm thanksgivings before so low 70s wouldn't be shocking..perhaps November won't be all that below normal after all just like it won't be a torch..such as the peril in putting stock into long range forecasts that don't usually work out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Lower 70s sounds extremely high. Such a warm up would kill those negative departures for the next 7 days. Lots of panic about December now from the forums. The METS suggest a mid December reload but don't sound too confident. In order for this to be a huge winter December has to produce something. I'm never going to put all my bags in a basket for Jan-Feb only to deliver a huge winter Who's panicking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Lower 70s sounds extremely high. Such a warm up would kill those negative departures for the next 7 days. Lots of panic about December now from the forums. The METS suggest a mid December reload but don't sound too confident. In order for this to be a huge winter December has to produce something. I'm never going to put all my bags in a basket for Jan-Feb only to deliver a huge winter So we are writing off NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER now ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Who's panicking? Sounds like he is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 We've had many warm thanksgivings before so low 70s wouldn't be shocking..perhaps November won't be all that below normal after all just like it won't be a torch..such as the peril in putting stock into long range forecasts that don't usually work out I'm pretty sure low 70s in late November is record breaking so it is a big deal. Yea I initially thought November would average a -1 and then I thought between -2 and -3 was possible. If the last week of November torches then that -1 would be far more likely. I believe as of today everyone is close to 0.5+ for a departure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 So we are writing off NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER now ? Sure sounds like it that didnt take long! A few cutters and coastal huggers keep the weenies away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 So we are writing off NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER now ? No but I noticed in the New England forums there was far more worry about December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 It looks like the pattern will relax a bit by Thanksgiving on the Euro Ensembles...you can see the same on the GEFS. But the -EPO looks likely to continue so we won't exactly be breaking out the shorts. Can't wait for the panic to begin as we start December with a less than perfect pattern... http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/f252.gif John meant to say the panic will start on Nov 13th . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Every pattern relaxes. Would you rather us get cold now then warm during the first week of Dec? The pattern is fitting well for another cool down in the beginning of Dec when we have realistic snow chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 I'm pretty sure low 70s in late November is record breaking so it is a big deal. Yea I initially thought November would average a -1 and then I thought between -2 and -3 was possible. If the last week of November torches then that -1 would be far more likely. I believe as of today everyone is close to 0.5+ for a departure. Back to average after today but why does it matter if we end up -1 or -3? It could be -5 that doesn't mean we're getting snow Also 2004-05 did nothing until January and turned into a pretty great winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 No but I noticed in the New England forums there was far more worry about December. I would not worry about it . I think most point to a colder winter pattern for several reasons . You may see the a real winter pattern start in mid or late DEC . As it should . Very hard to start Nov 1 and run the table for 4 months. It just does not work that way . When push comes to shove I think you will be happy with it`s outcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 If I'm worried it's because of the hype monster that's been created this season. Expectations are so high that less than ideal conditions in December bring out the worries. I think I would've been a lot happier if all forecasts called for another 2011-2012 because then there would be zero expectations thus no worries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 I would not worry about it . I think most point to a colder winter pattern for several reasons . You may see the a real winter pattern start in mid or late DEC . As it should . Very hard to start Nov 1 and run the table for 4 months. It just does not work that way . When push comes to shove I think you will be happy with it`s outcome Gotta hand it to john not only giving a great winter forecast but also predicting how soon the weenies will be writing off winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 John meant to say the panic will start on Nov 13th . Never too early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 If I'm worried it's because of the hype monster that's been created this season. Expectations are so high that less than ideal conditions in December bring out the worries. I think I would've been a lot happier if all forecasts called for another 2011-2012 because then there would be zero expectations thus no worries. Agree, a warm December puts the kabash on an epic winter. Many people are calling for a frigid December, so this could be the early signal of the train off the tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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