bluewave Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 That strong Aleutian low which is typical for a +PDO pattern will pump the ridging over Western North America and place the Northeast under a mean trough with cooler than normal temperatures. The ECMWF Ensemble agrees on this pattern through mid-month. Fox 12 ECMWF Ensemble freebie 360 hrs https://fox12weather.files.wordpress.com/2014/11/ecm15day.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 That strong Aleutian low which is typical for a +PDO pattern will pump the ridging over Western North America and place the Northeast under a mean trough with cooler than normal temperatures. The ECMWF Ensemble agrees on this pattern through mid-month. ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_6.png ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.png Fox 12 ECMWF Ensemble freebie 360 hrs https://fox12weather.files.wordpress.com/2014/11/ecm15day.png Overnight 11-15 day Euro ENS Mean has a deeper trough over the East and higher heights into the North Pole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Peak wind gust of 55 mph at Westchester County Airport so far for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 GEFS doesn't disagree either, shows a similar look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Meanwhile enjoy some warm temps this week because you may not see them for a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Meanwhile enjoy some warm temps this week because you may not see them for a long time. that is for sure just look at the indicies forecasts - all seem to be favoring a cold weather pattern after this week - other charts for December are coming around to the idea of a fast start to winter this year http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 that is for sure just look at the indicies forecasts - all seem to be favoring a cold weather pattern after this week - other charts for December are coming around to the idea of a fast start to winter this year http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml One can only hope that if we do indeed get into a fast start for winter that when the pattern relaxes/reloads we can have a nice bookend to winter. Wayyy in the future i know but who knows maybe like last year it will be wall to wall cold by the time december gets here and with +PNA, -AO/NAO and weak el nino it will be quite a show again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Overnight 11-15 day Euro ENS Mean has a deeper trough over the East and higher heights into the North Pole. Yep. Typically error from yesterday's day 10 thru 15 ensembles . Seeing LP through Alaska and that west coast ridge yesterday I think most figured the trough in the east would get deeper on future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 the ao forecast is mostly down today...It's over +1 today...not every member is negative but I think with time they will be... nao forecast is all over the place... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Overnight 11-15 day Euro ENS Mean has a deeper trough over the East and higher heights into the North Pole. That makes sense give the strong +PDO pattern which favors that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 That makes sense give the strong +PDO pattern which favors that. The set up was on the ensembles yesterday. Yesterday's 0z run showed the trough and ridge positions out west. The European does a really good job in its 10 to 15 west of the Rockies. But it's too weak at times at 500 on the EC. The euro ensembles error bias is show a limited trough in the east only to correct deeper as we get closer . That kind of ridge extending so far north tends to send a deep trough into the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 This sudden flip and pattern on the GFS/Euro is very 1995 like, only real difference is the NAO will largely be positive the next 10 days if the forecasts are right, otherwise the overall trof in the east with numerous storm threats and inland snow events is similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Just a curious question: what were the exact dates of NYC's first frost and freeze last year? I want to see how last year and this year compare to each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Three photos from this morning in the wake of the intensifying nor'easter: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Three photos from this morning in the wake of the intensifying nor'easter: Post them in the fall picture thread i started. They look awesome as usual my friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Post them in the fall picture thread i started. They look awesome as usual my friend Thanks. I have posted them there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 This sudden flip and pattern on the GFS/Euro is very 1995 like, only real difference is the NAO will largely be positive the next 10 days if the forecasts are right, otherwise the overall trof in the east with numerous storm threats and inland snow events is similar. Curious now as to how the next 10 days plays out. I'm just checking out the euro, and it has the AO, NAO, and EPO neg. at day ten. I had to look twice. Should be an interesting month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 The set up was on the ensembles yesterday. Yesterday's 0z run showed the trough and ridge positions out west. The European does a really good job in its 10 to 15 west of the Rockies. But it's too weak at times at 500 on the EC. The euro ensembles error bias is show a limited trough in the east only to correct deeper as we get closer . That kind of ridge extending so far north tends to send a deep trough into the east. Yeah, the Aleutian Low which was displaced much further east than usual for a +PDO in October is set to retrograde. This is a good pattern for a strong ridge out west and a trough east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 12Z Euro is a Weenies paradise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 12Z Euro is a Weenies paradise Thats certainly good news. Here we were not that long ago saying winter looked to be starting slow and ramping up as we got to january and so on. Now looks like we may have a fast start to winter and hopefully go wire-to-wire with cold and snow! Like poker with pocket aces, ill go all-in for you anthony! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 12Z Euro is a Weenies paradise 12Z euro ens send the AO and NAO negative on the means starting day 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 the 18z GFS is cold, cold, cold. Crazy to see this happening. Even the forecasters that said this would be a BRUTAL winter temp wise said NOV would be above normal. Not looking like it based on these latest runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 12Z Euro is a Weenies paradise You mean the 2 cold rain events at 120 and at 196 Please stop posting this cr.. man . It's simply not true. Either you have no idea what you are looking at or you are an unapologetic liar that just wastes people's time looking to see what the heck you are looking at. Please stop it's only November and you are in mid season form Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 You mean the 2 cold rain events at 120 and at 196 Please stop posting this cr.. man . It's simply not true. Either you have no idea what you are looking at or you are an unapologetic liar that just wastes people's time looking to see what the heck you are looking at. Please stop it's only November and you are in mid season form Mid season form! atleast he has a better track record that geno smith right now.But seriously though paul my post was meant to be funny in response to his, you gotta love what the models are now showing us "currently". JB is beating the drum and hammered home that recurving typhoon as well in correlation with the -AO tanking. We may not see a legit snow event in november but the pattern is as good as it can get for this time of year IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 You mean the 2 cold rain events at 120 and at 196 Please stop posting this cr.. man . It's simply not true. Either you have no idea what you are looking at or you are an unapologetic liar that just wastes people's time looking to see what the heck you are looking at. Please stop it's only November and you are in mid season form I don't expect snow in mid November, but I'd like to see a nice 975 mb low in northern Maine any day of the year. As a skier, that only makes tracking the weather more exciting as I root for various outcomes. So while it's not showing snowstorms verbatim it's still a cool and active pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Mid season form! atleast he has a better track record that geno smith right now.But seriously though paul my post was meant to be funny in response to his, you gotta love what the models are now showing us "currently". JB is beating the drum and hammered home that recurving typhoon as well in correlation with the -AO tanking. We may not see a legit snow event in november but the pattern is as good as it can get for this time of year IMO. 2 cold rain storms on an OP run can never be viewed as a "paradise run " it's dishonest. The euro ensembles have been on the deepening trough into the east by day 10 for a few days now .The CFSV2 has been looking colder for November since early this week . That said his post is disingenuous that's all . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 This sudden flip and pattern on the GFS/Euro is very 1995 like, only real difference is the NAO will largely be positive the next 10 days if the forecasts are right, otherwise the overall trof in the east with numerous storm threats and inland snow events is similar. It would b great to keep this kind of trough axis here from Dec into Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 It's becoming pretty obvious that initial warm forecasts made for November (myself included, unfortunately) are definitely going to be wrong. Yes, the month will start out pretty warm, but the Aleutian Low is going to retrograde to the west quicker than initially thought. This as well as other factors may try to lead to some high-latitude blocking as well. Instead of a warm November 1-15 and average to maybe slightly below November 16-30 like I originally thought, it may be something like a slightly above average November 1-7, but pretty cold for much of the month after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 You mean the 2 cold rain events at 120 and at 196 Please stop posting this cr.. man . It's simply not true. Either you have no idea what you are looking at or you are an unapologetic liar that just wastes people's time looking to see what the heck you are looking at. Please stop it's only November and you are in mid season form It's good to see coastals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 agree 100% plus very rarely he posts a link to back up his statements Go look at the Euro ensembles and Gfs. Great looking pattern settling in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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