Juliancolton Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Always a good sign: the HPC brought Kocin out for this evening's QPF disco! ...NORTHEAST...WITH COLDER AIR RELATIVELY SLOW TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST...AREMAINING SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHEAST EARLYON DAY 2/THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...GENERATING ADEVELOPING WAVE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WHILE A RELATIVELY MINORSYSTEM...AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW COULD OCCUR FROMPORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLANDWITH AMOUNTS LIKELY REMAINING LESS THAN .10 INCHES...EXCEPTPOSSIBLY OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TOBE A SIGNIFICANT QPF PRODUCER...IT HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO PRODUCEENOUGH LIGHT SNOW TO CREATE EARLY MORNING TRAFFIC ISSUES IN PARTSOF THE NORTHEAST.HURLEY/TERRY/KOCIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 0Z GFS FWIW giving the immediate NYC metro tomorrow night into friday morning at least 0.25 liquid with 0.50 just off the coast - rain changing to snow with a coating to an inch or 2 possible according to the model http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014111300/gfs_apcpn_us_7.png All of the sudden things look a bit more interesting and things are trending wetter this time. If this continues then we would see more then a few flakes. BL temps could be several degrees above freezing and we could see flakes. If you're talking about accumulations then obviously the closer to freezing or below the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 The NOA when in transition is when the odds are in favor of a storm just an obs.see yaYes, it is normally when the NAO is transitioning that we see the atmosphere primed for storms. As the transition takes place (more favorable when we transition from a negative NAO to a positive and this is what I'm referring to) the above average geopotentials allow for stronger storms to develop. Granted, above normal geopotentials will normally translate to higher temperatures, but as the transition is taking place, the cold air normally still has a good hold and likewise the dynamics of a bombing out storm combine to allow for the area to get a rather good thump of frozen precip before the positive NAO takes hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 0z GGEM has the storm just offshore. Much colder run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Gfs is still basically a rainstorm with QPF probably over an inch with temps either upper 40s to low 50s. I don't see anything that would cause the Monday storm to become much colder as there's no cold source present when the storm occurs. If the antecedent cold was much stronger then we might have had ice issues but that's something more typical in mid winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Gfs is still basically a rainstorm with QPF probably over an inch with temps either upper 40s to low 50s. I don't see anything that would cause the Monday storm to become much colder as there's no cold source present when the storm occurs. If the antecedent cold was much stronger then we might have had ice issues but that's something more typical in mid winter. GFS Para is much further east than the GFS op. It even changes the coast over to snow at the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Euro is disorganized and weak. Also further east and colder. Still rain on the coast and snow inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Big shift east from the gfs compared to the 0z. Low is just offshore . Still rain for the coast with snow inland .Para is similiar.Should be interesting to see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 UPTON SEES FIRST FLAKES . 00Z MODEL SUITE APPEARS MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH PRECIP CHANCES ANDAMOUNTS. PLENTY OF LIFT NOTED...ALONG WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESISFORECAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.MODELS GENERALLY OUTPUT MEASURABLE QPF...WITH GENERALLY A TENTH OFAN INCH UP TO A THIRD OF AN INCH EASTERN ZONES. WILL INCREASE POPSTO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL AFTER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD SUGGEST RAIN AT THE START THISEVENING ACROSS WESTERN ZONES. THEN COLDER AIR MOVES IN...PLENTYCOLD ENOUGH ALOFT TO SUPPORT SNOW. USED RAW NAM DATA...WITH EDITSDUE TO RESOLUTION AROUND LONG ISLAND...FOR TEMPS TONIGHT...WHICHOBVIOUSLY HAS AN IMPACT ON WEATHER TYPE. FELT MOS JUST DID NOTCAPTURE TEMP TRENDS FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD.IN GENERAL...RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX CHANGES TO SNOW FROM WEST TOEAST BEFORE ENDING BETWEEN 6Z-12Z.IF PRECIP IS HEAVIER...COLUMN MAY COOL ENOUGH FOR A QUICKERTRANSITION THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW...WITH PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHERAMOUNTS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN SRN CT. THESE AMOUNTS PERWPC WWD DISCUSSION/GRAPHICS...AND COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.NYC AND LI WOULD ONLY SEE TRACE AMOUNTS...MAYBE A DUSTING TO AHALF AN INCH. HOWEVER...THIS CAN CHANGE. PLEASE SEE STORM TOTALSFOR BEST ESTIMATES AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 UPTON SEES FIRST FLAKES . 00Z MODEL SUITE APPEARS MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH PRECIP CHANCES AND AMOUNTS. PLENTY OF LIFT NOTED...ALONG WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MODELS GENERALLY OUTPUT MEASURABLE QPF...WITH GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH UP TO A THIRD OF AN INCH EASTERN ZONES. WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL AFTER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD SUGGEST RAIN AT THE START THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN ZONES. THEN COLDER AIR MOVES IN...PLENTY COLD ENOUGH ALOFT TO SUPPORT SNOW. USED RAW NAM DATA...WITH EDITS DUE TO RESOLUTION AROUND LONG ISLAND...FOR TEMPS TONIGHT...WHICH OBVIOUSLY HAS AN IMPACT ON WEATHER TYPE. FELT MOS JUST DID NOT CAPTURE TEMP TRENDS FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD. IN GENERAL...RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX CHANGES TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST BEFORE ENDING BETWEEN 6Z-12Z. IF PRECIP IS HEAVIER...COLUMN MAY COOL ENOUGH FOR A QUICKER TRANSITION THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW...WITH PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN SRN CT. THESE AMOUNTS PER WPC WWD DISCUSSION/GRAPHICS...AND COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. NYC AND LI WOULD ONLY SEE TRACE AMOUNTS...MAYBE A DUSTING TO A HALF AN INCH. HOWEVER...THIS CAN CHANGE. PLEASE SEE STORM TOTALS FOR BEST ESTIMATES AT THIS TIME. Two days after the first trace of snow last November 12th. The record for NYC is 1.0"set in 1911 for the 14th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Two days after the first trace of snow last November 12th. The record for NYC is 1.0"set in 1911 for the 14th. Think the park grabs a trace . Curious to see if some parts of LI can cool quick enough to get an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Think the park grabs a trace . Curious to see if some parts of LI can cool quick enough to get an inch Yeah, the Euro looks like a trace for NYC and maybe an inch on colder surfaces out toward Suffolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Yeah, the Euro looks like a trace for NYC and maybe an inch on colder surfaces out toward Suffolk. This is the one situation, I believe the euro is wrong with precip amounts. I think it will adjust today on the 12z run, if the rest of the suite holds or raises amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 This is the one situation, I believe the euro is wrong with precip amounts. I think it will adjust today on the 12z run, if the rest of the suite holds or raises amounts. It could be a tenth or two dry, but that would still favor eastern sections for the most snow potential after 6z and interior higher elevations before that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 It could be a tenth or two dry, but that would still favor eastern sections for the most snow potential after 6z and interior higher elevations before that. All levels but surface support snow. That tenth or two is the difference between rain and dynamically cooled snow. I believe the north shore of LI will see some accumulations from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 All levels but surface support snow. That tenth or two is the difference between rain and dynamically cooled snow. I believe the north shore of LI will see some accumulations from this. Ill be shocked if i get accumulating snow from this being on the south shore of suffolk county. A few flakes are possible where i am but i agree north shore stands a better chance of seeing accumulating snows on LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Ill be shocked if i get accumulating snow from this being on the south shore of suffolk county. A few flakes are possible where i am but i agree north shore stands a better chance of seeing accumulating snows on LI I would be careful with that. The Long Island sound is still plenty warm so the immediate north shore probably will not see any accumulations. This happened big time in the October 11 storm. Some elevation is always nice however in early season events. I think we see out first coating but it will be gone before most wake up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 All levels but surface support snow. That tenth or two is the difference between rain and dynamically cooled snow. I believe the north shore of LI will see some accumulations from this. The latest GFS soundings support about a trace of snow as the precip winds down. The surface will be too warm from the city east in the upper 30's to around 40 for much if any accumulation. But we could end up with our first flakes in the air for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 GFS takes the storm just inside of the benchmark for Monday. Icy/ rain for the coast and snow well inland. 0c line hugs the coast throughout the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 12z GGEM has a soaking rainstorm for Mondayhttp://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/235_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 GFS takes the storm just inside of the benchmark for Monday. Icy/ rain for the coast and snow well inland. 0c line hugs the coast throughout the storm. It would be quite the paste job N&W. 925mb is running +1-2C but we should be able to overcome this if the precip is intense enough given that 850's stay below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 For those wondering, the parallel GFS is a coastal hugger which results in rain and then dry slot. 996mb right over central Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Remember, when looking at models, you have to realize when it shows precip, it is showing precip that has fallen 6 hours prior to that time frame. For example loojk at the 700mb RH, most of the precip has already moved out of the area by then. Just not a good setup for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Remember, when looking at models, you have to realize when it shows precip, it is showing precip that has fallen 6 hours prior to that time frame. For example loojk at the 700mb RH, most of the precip has already moved out of the area by then. Just not a good setup for snow. It's actually a fine setup for snow NW of 95 if you can get a good track of the low. The only levels that are above freezing are the lowest layers, and that can be overcome by dynamic cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Remember, when looking at models, you have to realize when it shows precip, it is showing precip that has fallen 6 hours prior to that time frame. For example loojk at the 700mb RH, most of the precip has already moved out of the area by then. Just not a good setup for snow. NW . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Way, way out in fantasy range, but the Parallel GFS for a few days now has been hinting at quite a warm up the day before Thanksgiving, possibly hitting the lower 70's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Way, way out in fantasy range, but the Parallel GFS for a few days now has been hinting at quite a warm up the day before Thanksgiving, possibly hitting the lower 70's. A warm up for that week has been on the Euro Ensembles for the last few . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 It's actually a fine setup for snow NW of 95 if you can get a good track of the low. The only levels that are above freezing are the lowest layers, and that can be overcome by dynamic cooling. I'll kindly highly disagree, we have a HP sliding out into the Atlantic, it's pretty much a glorified cold front. GFS SE cold bias at total play here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 I'll kindly highly disagree, we have a HP sliding out into the Atlantic, it's pretty much a glorified cold front. GFS SE cold bias at total play here. I think a change over occurs on the backside of this NW . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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