MJO812 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 I believe December will be a very slow month, with our winter hitting hard from Jan 10th or so through February. Alot of forecasts have a cold January and a snowy February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 I believe December will be a very slow month, with our winter hitting hard from Jan 10th or so through February. i'll second that but the hardcore weenies in here like *cough cough* ^^^^ cant wait that long with no snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Alot of forecasts have a cold January and a snowy February. Yup exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 i'll second that but the hardcore weenies in here like *cough cough* ^^^^ cant wait that long with no snow I'm a complete weather weenie, rainstorm, tropical conditions, harsh cold. As long as we have the cold, I could care less about the snow. I can wait, sometime I am not used to saying *cough cough* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 I'm a complete weather weenie, rainstorm, tropical conditions, harsh cold. As long as we have the cold, I could care less about the snow. I can wait, sometime I am not used to saying *cough cough* id rather have 60's and sun if it isn't gonna snow. nothing worse than a nice sunny day and it being below freezing, kick in the nuts by the snow gods if you ask me . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 id rather have 60's and sun if it isn't gonna snow. nothing worse than a nice sunny day and it being below freezing, kick in the nuts by the snow gods if you ask me . Not really, its winter. It's supposed to be cold, 60s is for a whole different season, why have double. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Could we stay on topic. And if u 2 want get a room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Could we stay on topic. And if u 2 want get a room. back on topic! still looking like a period of relaxation end of this month into beginning of December. Wild card is going to be when the -NAO will once again establish itself like we saw in October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 back on topic! still looking like a period of relaxation end of this month into beginning of December. Wild card is going to be when the -NAO will once again establish itself like we saw in October. There 2 events upcoming ( albeit small ) events. Some may see the 1st flakes Friday night onto the coastal plain . Next week is still alive for Rain possibly changing to Snow . Thanksgiving week looks above normal but a Pos PDO Neg EPO regime should rule the day in the LR as the Pacific should push the pattern this winter . Getting the NAO to go and stay NEG is a crap shoot , one would think it should according to the analogs but I am focused on the next 5 days and will take 2 weeks a time . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 There 2 events upcoming ( albeit small ) events. Some may see the 1st flakes Friday night onto the coastal plain . Next week is still alive for Rain possibly changing to Snow . Thanksgiving week looks above normal but a Pos PDO Neg EPO regime should rule the day in the LR as the Pacific should push the pattern this winter . Getting the NAO to go and stay NEG is a crap shoot , one would think it should according to the analogs but I am focused on the next 5 days and will take 2 weeks a time . agreed. its been one or the other the past several winters. its a rarity to have both the pacific and atlantic cooperate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Love it up in sullivan county. Im a country person at heart and if i could get a well paying up there id be living there in a heartbeat Have a home outside Liberty NY, Retired recently, and moving up there very soon. a 360 degree hi def 30x optical zoom camera let's me se what I am missing when I am not there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Have a home outside Liberty NY, Retired recently, and moving up there very soon. a 360 degree hi def 30x optical zoom camera let's me se what I am missing when I am not there. my aunt and uncle live in Youngsville. my grandparents did as well and it is a nice play to me, quiet and true country Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 fail How is that fail, I could pull out tons of years where they were supposed to shine, but they busted. The ending about the bad feeling its my opinion, all signs are pointing to me being wrong about that opinion, but still I am allowed to say it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Since this month was supposed to torch and it clearly isn't anything beyond a week out can change rapidly. It would be unusual if this year didn't turn out snowier and blockier than normal because every analog and indicator suggests it will. If it doesn't then it'll be a huge bust and another topic of research just like the 2013 Hurricane season. I and others just need to relax because it's barely mid November and indeed there's already snow chances and cold air on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 How is that fail, I could pull out tons of years where they were supposed to shine, but they busted. The ending about the bad feeling its my opinion, all signs are pointing to me being wrong about that opinion, but still I am allowed to say it. Well, yes, it's meteorology; nothing is a given. I guess I just don't see the logic in "something could go wrong, therefore it probably will". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Since this month was supposed to torch and it clearly isn't anything beyond a week out can change rapidly. It would be unusual if this year didn't turn out snowier and blockier than normal because every analog and indicator suggests it will. If it doesn't then it'll be a huge bust and another topic of research just like the 2013 Hurricane season. I and others just need to relax because it's barely mid November and indeed there's already snow chances and cold air on the table. We are going to go into a relaxation period sometime before the real winter starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 We are going to go into a relaxation period sometime before the real winter starts. I know we will because we can't sustain such anamolous departures for too long. There could be a few relaxation periods during winter. It's why we average snowfall in the 20s and because we're only at 40N and I get that and hopefully people understand it's never going to be cold and snowy all winter long. I'll be happy with one 12"+ storm this winter honestly with a few smaller events surrounding it. A 40" winter would be great and anything more is a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 I have been following weather for a LONG LONG time, and sometimes you don't need all this damn science, cause look how many times it has screwed us into thinking we would have a huge winter. I just have a bad feeling for some reason. Please use the banter thread for all of this nonscientific speculation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 I believe December will be a very slow month, with our winter hitting hard from Jan 10th or so through February. Thanks for the shout out to my birthday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Well, yes, it's meteorology; nothing is a given. I guess I just don't see the logic in "something could go wrong, therefore it probably will".The ignoring science part rubbed me the wrong way considering this is supposed to be a science-based board.Anyway back to the November discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 SREF bumped west for Friday. Looks a bit wetter than 15z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 There 2 events upcoming ( albeit small ) events. Some may see the 1st flakes Friday night onto the coastal plain . Next week is still alive for Rain possibly changing to Snow . Thanksgiving week looks above normal but a Pos PDO Neg EPO regime should rule the day in the LR as the Pacific should push the pattern this winter . Getting the NAO to go and stay NEG is a crap shoot , one would think it should according to the analogs but I am focused on the next 5 days and will take 2 weeks a time . I keep seeing people say this, and I don't think thats exactly what we're looking for. Instead, I would say a highly variable NAO index with the monthly mean on the neg side is more what we would be looking for if I'm not mistaken Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 The NOA when in transition is when the odds are in favor of a storm just an obs.see ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Alot of forecasts have a cold January and a snowy February. That's always the forecast but definitely the safest one to make. January is on average the coldest month and February the snowiest. Hopefully it is, though I prefer snowy Januarys where it sticks around longer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Nam is also coming in wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Nam is also coming in wetter KNYC . Hour 27 - 30 .2 ish 850`s Minus 3 BL 38 F Showers ending as wet snow . Would not be shocked if there was a coating NW . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 KNYC . Hour 27 - 30 .2 ish 850`s Minus 3 BL 38 F Showers ending as wet snow . Would not be shocked if there was a coating NW . Agree. Some places might see more in SNE. Nam blows up the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Winter cancellation calls in early November? I'm not shocked at all because we went through this same exact mantra early last November. If anything, we should not be rooting for accumulating snowfall in November for NYC because accumulating snowfall in November usually precludes lackluster winters around these parts. A trace or a coating of snow, however, is encouraging to see. In fact, we should all be frisky right now because we are following the same monthly progression with regards to temperatures when compared to last November. Mild for the first half of the month, followed by a 7- to 10-day arctic blast. After that, we warmed into the 50s during rainstorms in the first part of December for about a week. Thus, it makes sense that we will see a moderation in the pattern later this month into early December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Nice little coastal for Friday on the gfs....0.25 -0.35" qpf while 850s below 0, just a matter of boundary layer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 0Z GFS FWIW giving the immediate NYC metro tomorrow night into friday morning at least 0.25 liquid with 0.50 just off the coast - rain changing to snow with a coating to an inch or 2 possible according to the model http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014111300/gfs_apcpn_us_7.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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