uncle W Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Yeah, that was a historic blizzard for Buffalo and and over a 40 degree temperature drop for us behind the front. PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1030 AM EST FRI JAN 24 1997... ...TWENTIETH ANNIVERSARY OF THE BLIZZARD APPROACHES... THE STORY OF THE BLIZZARD OF '77 ACTUALLY BEGAN EARLY IN THE WINTER OF 1976-1977. THE WEATHER WAS UNUSUALLY HARSH LEADING UP TO THE BLIZZARD. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR BOTH NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER WAS ABOUT SIX DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. JANUARY AVERAGED TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SEVERE GAS SHORTAGES WERE ALREADY UNDERWAY. INDUSTRIES AND SCHOOLS WERE FORCED TO CURTAIL ACTIVITIES AND IN SOME CASES CLOSE. IN ADDITION TO THE EXTREME COLD, SNOWFALL IN NOVEMBER TOTALLED 31.3 INCHES, IN DECEMBER 60.7 INCHES AND THROUGH THE 27TH OF JANUARY 59.1 INCHES. THERE WAS A PERSISTENT SNOWCOVER FROM NOVEMBER 29TH... UNUSUAL FOR A WESTERN NEW YORK WINTER. THE NATIONAL GUARD HAD ALREADY BEEN CALLED TO THE REGION TO HELP CLEAR THE SNOW-CLOGGED CITY STREETS. ON THE 27TH OF JANUARY, LOW PRESSURE CROSSED LAKE ERIE AND MOVED TO JAMES BAY. IT THEN BECAME STALLED EAST OF JAMES BAY. THE STORM THEN ACTUALLY MOVED BACK WEST OVER JAMES BAY BEFORE FINALLY MOVING EAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE STORM BEGAN ON THE 28TH OF JANUARY AS SNOW STARTED FALLING AT 5AM. AS WINDS FRESHENED FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT ABOUT TWO INCHES OF NEW POWDER HAD ACCUMULATED ON TOP OF THE 33 INCH SNOWPACK AND DRIFTS FROM PREVIOUS STORMS DATING BACK BEFORE CHRISTMAS. DURING THE MORNING, THE TEMPERATURE ROSE RAPIDLY FROM FIVE DEGREES AT MIDNIGHT TO 26 DEGREES AT 11 AM. AT 1135AM, THE FRONT PASSED THROUGH THE BUFFALO AIRPORT. IN A SHORT TIME, THE VISIBILITY DROPPED FROM 3/4 MILE TO ZERO AND THE WIND SHIFTED AND INCREASED TO SOUTHWEST AT 29 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 49 MPH. THE TEMPERATURE FELL 26 DEGREES TO ZERO IN JUST OVER FOUR HOURS. THE BLIZZARD REACHED ITS WORST SEVERITY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS WINDS AT THE BUFFALO AIRPORT AVERAGED 46 MPH AND GUSTED TO 69 MPH. GUSTS OF 75 MPH WERE RECORDED AT THE NIAGARA FALLS AIRPORT. WIND CHILLS REACHED FIFTY TO SIXTY DEGREES BELOW ZERO. THOUSANDS WERE STRANDED IN OFFICE BUILDINGS, SCHOOLS, POLICE STATIONS, FIRE HALLS, AND FACTORIES. CARS WERE STALLED EVERYWHERE AND ROADS BECAME IMPASSABLE. WHEN A FIRE BROKE OUT ON WHITNEY PLACE, FIRE FIGHTING EQUIPMENT WAS UNABLE TO GET THROUGH. SIX HOMES WERE COMPLETELY DESTROYED AND FIFTY PEOPLE WERE LEFT HOMELESS. NEARLY ALL TRANSPORTATION IN AND OUT OF BUFFALO STOPPED. IN ADDITION TO ERIE COUNTY, STATES OF EMERGENCY WERE DECLARED IN NIAGARA, ORLEANS AND GENESEE COUNTIES. ALL ROADS WERE CLOSED IN WYOMING AND LIVINGSTON COUNTIES AS WELL. BLIZZARD OR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS PREVAILED ON AND OFF FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS, ENDING AROUND MIDDAY ON FEBRUARY 1ST. DAILY PEAK GUSTS OF 51, 52, 58, AND 46 MPH WERE RECORDED FROM THE 29TH THROUGH THE 1ST. ON SATURDAY THE 29TH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS PREVAILED. FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 143 YEARS, THE BUFFALO COURIER EXPRESS COULD NOT PUBLISH ITS MORNING PAPER. THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ISSUED A DECLARATION OF EMERGENCY WHICH ALLOWED THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT TO COME IN AND PROVIDE WHATEVER WAS NEEDED TO RESTORE NORMALCY TO THE REGION. BY THE 30TH, FEDERAL OFFICIALS HAD TAKEN OVER SNOW REMOVAL OPERATIONS AND BEFORE THE END OF THE STORM OVER 500 NATIONAL GUARDSMEN WERE HELPING IN THE DISASTER. IT WAS ESTIMATED THAT SNOW REMOVAL COSTS EXCEEDED 20 MILLION DOLLARS. SNOWMOBILERS AND THOSE WITH FOUR WHEEL DRIVE BECAME INVALUABLE AS THEY DELIVERED EMERGENCY FOOD AND MEDICAL SUPPLIES. SADLY, 29 DEATHS WERE BLAMED ON THE STORM--MANY FOUND FROZEN IN THEIR HALF BURIED CARS DURING THE FOUR DAY ORDEAL. IN ADDITION, LOOTING OF BUSINESSES AND STRANDED CARS ALSO TOOK PLACE BEGINNING ON THE 29TH WITH NEARLY ONE HUNDRED ARRESTED.WHEN THE SUN FINALLY CAME OUT FOR GOOD ON THE 1ST OF FEBRUARY, ITS COLD LIGHT REVEALED A SCENE OF INCREDIBLE DESOLATION IN THE BUFFALO AREA AND OVER THE SEVEN WESTERN COUNTY AREA. THE CITY AS WELL AS MOST OTHER COMMUNITIES BANNED TRAFFIC FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE ARMY WAS CALLED IN FROM FORT BRAGG, NC TO AUGMENT THE NATIONAL GUARDSMEN. SOME OF THE EASTERN SUBURBS OF BUFFALO, PARTICULARLY LANCASTER, WERE BURIED TO THE ROOFS OF HOMES IN SOME CASES. THE STORMS TOLL WAS FELT BY ALL. FACTORIES AND INDUSTRIES WERE CLOSED FOR OVER A WEEK. RETAILERS REPORTED MILLIONS IN LOST SALES AS STORES REMAINED CLOSED. AT THE BUFFALO ZOO, OVER 20 ANIMALS PERISHED IN THE STORM AND DAMAGE WAS ESTIMATED AT NEARLY A HALF A MILLION DOLLARS.FOUR BUFFALO BRAVES PROFESSIONAL BASKETBALL GAMES WERE POSTPONED AS WELL AS TWO BUFFALO SABRES HOCKEY GAMES. MAIL DELIVERY WAS SUSPENDED FOR NEARLY A WEEK ALSO.PRESIDENT CARTER DECLARED SEVEN WESTERN COUNTIES FEDERAL DISASTER AREAS -- THE FIRST TIME EVER FOR A SNOWSTORM IN THE UNITED STATES.THE SNOW AT BUFFALO TOTALLED ABOUT 12 INCHES FROM JANUARY 28TH TO FEBRUARY 1ST BUT MUCH OF THIS IS BELIEVED TO BE FROM EXISTING SNOW LYING ON THE FROZEN SURFACE OF LAKE ERIE BEING BLOWN INTO THE BUFFALO AREA AND REDEPOSITED.LEVAN it was before that...It was around January 11th, 1977... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Gfs came in colder and further east for Mondays storm. It takes a coastal track. I wouldn't be shocked to see this trend colder with the abundance of cold air aroundn Its still far enough away where things "could" trend colder to a more snowier scenario but i would not get too excited just yet unless your north of NYC and by that i mean northern orange county/sullivan county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Gfs came in colder and further east for Mondays storm. It takes a coastal track. I wouldn't be shocked to see this trend colder with the abundance of cold air aroundn Anthony, it has to do with the speed of the southern jet wave out West. The 12z runs were slower and had more phasing which tugged everything West. The 18z GFS keeps things more seperated. It's still a cold rain for the immediate coastal plain flipping to a wet paste well N&W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 it was before that...It was around January 11th, 1977... I was thinking of the late month super front. 1-28-77....43....13 1-29-77....15.....1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Anthony, it has to do with the speed of the southern jet wave out West. The 12z runs were slower and had more phasing which tugged everything West. The 18z GFS keeps things more seperated. It's still a cold rain for the immediate coastal plain flipping to a wet paste well N&W.Atleast commend him, his exceptionally high weenie standards are still present and ready to serve him for the upcoming winter season with a variety of 240+ hour model runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 It looks very possible that areas NW of 287 could get a little snow, maybe even a few inches toward west Milford or high point. More phasing (with it occurring at the same time) should give areas MORE snow, but push the snow line even further NW. Much less phasing would keep most people drier with little chance for snow. I wouldn't be surprised though if we all get a coating on Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Its still far enough away where things "could" trend colder to a more snowier scenario but i would not get too excited just yet unless your north of NYC and by that i mean northern orange county/sullivan county I could be the furthest NW in this sub forum and even I'm still skeptic. As of right now a mixed bag is very much on the table with the potential for a few inches especially in areas >1000'. I do also think this will trend colder for all to allow atleast some flakes in the air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 I could be the furthest NW in this sub forum and even I'm still skeptic. As of right now a mixed bag is very much on the table with the potential for a few inches especially in areas >1000'. I do also think this will trend colder for all to allow atleast some flakes in the air Love it up in sullivan county. Im a country person at heart and if i could get a well paying up there id be living there in a heartbeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Gfs came in colder and further east for Mondays storm. It takes a coastal track. I wouldn't be shocked to see this trend colder with the abundance of cold air aroundn I'm thinking the only reason the GFS came in colder is because the cold front is even closer to the coast than it was earlier. Tonight should really tell the story even more and after tomorrow night small event the models should really get the exact track by Friday 12z runs. It still over 100hours away if we could get a trend here we could be talking about a rain to snow event. I still don't like the setup so I'm wish casting like a weenie that I am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Can anybody tell me where on the NOAA site the anticipated QPF, ice and snow totals for the next 48 hours are, I use to know where to find it but forgot. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 I was thinking of the late month super front. 1-28-77....43....13 1-29-77....15.....1 1-08-77....27....18 1-09-77....30....20...0.08....0.8 1-10-77....41....18...1.24....1.5 1-11-77....23....16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 1-08-77....27....18 1-09-77....30....20...0.08....0.8 1-10-77....41....18...1.24....1.5 1-11-77....23....16 I will never forget waiting for the last minute to get to the bus stop for school so I wouldn't have to stand too long in the cold. The plummers must have really cashed in that month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 The Gfs is mighty cold early next week before the pattern changes again. We are likely going to see a couple days of highs in the 30s probably mid 30s and lows in the lower 20s just outside the city and away from the coast. I do wonder since the snow cover across the U.S. will be really widespread if the models are warming things up too much when we relax. I wouldn't be surprised if models trend colder after the 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 I heard 96 blizzard was even more intense and definitely more widespread but didn't live in NYC than. I used to live in Luxembourg back than. No snowstorm I know of was more "mean" and intense than the Boxing Day Blizzard. I've never experienced thunder and lighting in the middle of a blizzard before. It's also exciting because up to 48 hours before the storm occurred, models were poo pooing all over it. As far as meteorological, the storm of the century, the March 1993 storm was fascinating. Was that a triple phaser? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 The Gfs is mighty cold early next week before the pattern changes again. We are likely going to see a couple days of highs in the 30s probably mid 30s and lows in the lower 20s just outside the city and away from the coast. I do wonder since the snow cover across the U.S. will be really widespread if the models are warming things up too much when we relax. I wouldn't be surprised if models trend colder after the 20th. I've always believed that the models tend to warm things up too much in the long range just as they tend to exaggerate the cold in the long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Can really see when the cold front moved thru today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 No snowstorm I know of was more "mean" and intense than the Boxing Day Blizzard. I've never experienced thunder and lighting in the middle of a blizzard before. It's also exciting because up to 48 hours before the storm occurred, models were poo pooing all over it. As far as meteorological, the storm of the century, the March 1993 storm was fascinating. Was that a triple phaser? i heard and watched many videos about the 93 blizzard but I regret the fact that I lived in Europe till 97/98 winter. Oh man that year was a disaster in New York I think we got 5 inches of some surprising snow event in march! I was such a happy kid back than at least we got that. Hopefully that year doesn't repeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 I'm a big time weenie, not going to lie, but for some reason I honestly feel we are setting ourselves up for disaster this year. Everything is going right for us, but I have a horrible feeling that these storms will come up the coast with horrible timing and have no cold air until after it passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 I'm a big time weenie, not going to lie, but for some reason I honestly feel we are setting ourselves up for disaster this year. Everything is going right for us, but I have a horrible feeling that these storms will come up the coast with horrible timing and have no cold air until after it passes.i had that same feeling a few weeks ago when I made my winter outlook map. That we would have a lot of mixed events. But hey I went against my gut because I'm a weenie like yourself. So my fellow weenie let's embrace our passion and hopefully Mother Nature doesn't disappoint us. Think positive my fellow weenie. I know I'm corny but the struggle is real! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Ugh,; hope you are wrong I dread a pattern that sets up warm/wet then dry and cold what a waste of cold air if that happens. Well; in my eyes true winter weather tracking begins in December so let's see what transpires then . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 I'm a big time weenie, not going to lie, but for some reason I honestly feel we are setting ourselves up for disaster this year. Everything is going right for us, but I have a horrible feeling that these storms will come up the coast with horrible timing and have no cold air until after it passes. this may be true if the -NAO doesn't return after its vanished when October ended. Bluewave posted earlier that 1995 had similar pattern where it had record blocking in October, relaxed in November and reloaded for DJF. Should start getting an idea on the blocking for December or lack thereof in another 7-10 days, in the end these posts are not constructive and have no substance during this time of year to be honest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Ugh,; hope you are wrong I dread a pattern that sets up warm/wet then dry and cold what a waste of cold air if that happens. Well; in my eyes true winter weather tracking begins in December so let's see what transpires then . Don't get me wrong, we will have our fair share of extreme cold, however, I can easily see some bad ridging and just bad timing altogether. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 this may be true if the -NAO doesn't return after its vanished when October ended. Bluewave posted earlier that 1995 had similar pattern where it had record blocking in October, relaxed in November and reloaded for DJF. Should start getting an idea on the blocking for December or lack thereof in another 7-10 days, in the end these posts are not constructive and have no substance during this time of year to be honest It was the 2002 on pattern. Years with strong October blocking generally relaxed for November and reloaded for DJF. 8 out of 9 years the October relationship yielded above normal seasonal snowfall for us. People just read too much into the November to winter patterns when all the significant correlations are October to the winter. It seems like a bunch of bad November pattern posts clogging the thread lately. Reminds me of all the negative sentiment during the very warm November 2009. I think there were a few repeat of 2001-2002 calls after that year had a warm November also. November 2001....52.7 November 2009....51.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 It was the 2002 on pattern. Years with strong October blocking relaxed for November and reloaded for DJF. 8 out of 9 years the relationship yielded above normal seasonal snowfall for us. my apologies. my bad it was the cutter of cutters in 1995 but I got your drift on this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 ill agree that you can have all the ducks in the line and still have bad timing and not get nothing or a cutter. However, its still too early to entertain such an outlandish prediction. could it come true and we get shafted? absolutely but as of now that isn't a plausible outcome It's WAY WAY too early you are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 It's WAY WAY too early you are right. don't mean to be a Debbie downer on your posts but November 11th and LR models looks great for cold, pacific ridging, -AO and weak el nino. the blocking will arrive eventually. we have seen farrrr worse setups with hopes of it getting better than this. literally all we are missing is the -NAO, not a bad start IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 don't mean to be a Debbie downer on your posts but November 11th and LR models looks great for cold, pacific ridging, -AO and weak el nino. the blocking will arrive eventually. we have seen farrrr worse setups with hopes of it getting better than this. literally all we are missing is the -NAO, not a bad start IMO Euro is showing the AO popping positive for a period, and LR AO its negative but barely, most are expecting it to bottom out like 09/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 I will never forget waiting for the last minute to get to the bus stop for school so I wouldn't have to stand too long in the cold. The plummers must have really cashed in that month. the worst I saw for frozen pipes was in February 1979...at least there was a snowstorm in 1979 though barely...1978-79 was a lousy winter until the two week period in February...20" of snow and eight days in single digits...January 79 was the wettest on record but most of the storms were inland runners...early January there was a surprise 3-4" event...The next day was Sunday and an inland running storm caused snow to rain...I could smell the Ocean just before the snow changed over to rain and washed away 4" of snow...March was mild and snowless...The old farmers almanac said a warm March follows an extra cold February...One of there better forecast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Euro is showing the AO popping positive for a period, and LR AO its negative but barely, most are expecting it to bottom out like 09/10 most are predicting a period where we go deeply negative with the AO and the -NAO when it shows up will make it a very stormy and cold period on the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 most are predicting a period where we go deeply negative with the AO and the -NAO when it shows up will make it a very stormy and cold period on the EC. I believe December will be a very slow month, with our winter hitting hard from Jan 10th or so through February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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