Animal Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Bam. People are getting too nervous way to early. Agree. Expect heavy dog paw snow next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 The NAO was negative that entire month too and we could not get any of those storms in the first couple of weeks to take favorable tracks...November is a different world, especially before the 20th-25th to get a coastal system even when the NAO is negative. Goose, I've heard this before. Meteorologically, what accounts for the NAO's diminished influence prior to that timeframe? Wavelengths? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 I thought we were entering a very cold period. All I see and read is about the coming cold. Warm & Rain does not look to be a good set up for an epic November This time of year temperature profiles are very dependent on storm track. An inland runner is going to torch the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Why does it have to be miserable? I love a good rainstorm. Especially if it ends up being really wrapped up like the GFS parallel indicates. As long as your consistent with loving rainstorms in Dec-Feb because I would bet they'll be a few of them. Also that's reassuring to hear Bluewave. I've completely forgotten how things progressed in November 2002 that led to our winter pattern but I guess everything's good thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 This time of year temperature profiles are very dependent on storm track. An inland runner is going to torch the coast. an inland runner always torches us even if we are in the middle of January you could get highs to 60 degrees and raining. Since we don't have a classic CAD setup we are screwed. Heck the high pressure is to our east of where we want it. So Mondays system looks like a rainy one. The only thing I'm looking forward to yanks is Friday mornings flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 I thought we were entering a very cold period. All I see and read is about the coming cold. Warm & Rain does not look to be a good set up for an epic November November isnt an "epic" winter month to begin with. Also we could be in the teens and with any phased system it will cut to our west with warm air surging out ahead of it. Hows this happen? No blocking or confluence to our north to keep the storms from cutting hence why the pattern with lack of blocking will be cold-rain-cold-rain and so on. Even a transient block would help but we are having ZERO help with confluence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 As long as your consistent with loving rainstorms in Dec-Feb because I would bet they'll be a few of them. Also that's reassuring to hear Bluewave. I've completely forgotten how things progressed in November 2002 that led to our winter pattern but I guess everything's good thus far. This is where analogs, pattern recognition and climatology over models come into play. Even during periods of established blocking like the cold it retrogrades only to build back in many times and sometimes it doesnt. Thus far it doesnt look like we will lack -NAO as we head into december. Dont expect much snow if any this month with the current lack of any blocking IMO, unless we get a stray transient block timed well with a northern and southern stream phase and HP to our north in SE canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 As long as your consistent with loving rainstorms in Dec-Feb because I would bet they'll be a few of them. Also that's reassuring to hear Bluewave. I've completely forgotten how things progressed in November 2002 that led to our winter pattern but I guess everything's good thus far. As crazy as this may seem to some, I would rather have a ripping noreaster with 3-5" of rain and 60mph winds over a few inches of snow. Maybe I'm getting spoiled, but a few flakes in the air doesn't excite me like it does others. The New England forum has a dedicated storm thread for the threat of flurries on Friday. I understand that November is much more of a winter month up there, but to me that's all the more reason why a few flakes shouldn't even be noteworthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 As crazy as this may seem to some, I would rather have a ripping noreaster with 3-5" of rain and 60mph winds over a few inches of snow. Maybe I'm getting spoiled, but a few flakes in the air doesn't excite me like it does others. The New England forum has a dedicated storm thread for the threat of flurries on Friday. I understand that November is much more of a winter month up there, but to me that's all the more reason why a few flakes shouldn't even be noteworthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 The cutter of cutters! But seriously we should all be looking at the pattern and agree with what you said about blocking in october 2002 fading in november only to come back DJF. Whether that happens again according to plan has obviously yet to be seen but no panic should happen right now Yeah, as long as DJF follows the same scrip we'll have another above normal snowfall season here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 As crazy as this may seem to some, I would rather have a ripping noreaster with 3-5" of rain and 60mph winds over a few inches of snow. Maybe I'm getting spoiled, but a few flakes in the air doesn't excite me like it does others. The New England forum has a dedicated storm thread for the threat of flurries on Friday. I understand that November is much more of a winter month up there, but to me that's all the more reason why a few flakes shouldn't even be noteworthy. 6"+ is noteworthy. Anything under 90% of people who live in and around NYC can handle it just fine and wont even have a substantial impact. The 6"+ attains warning criteria and roads start getting more treacherous and so on. I agree with you on this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 I guess your not a true weenie like some of us on here. To me there is a big difference between an actual plowable snowfall and a coating that will be gone when the sun comes out. I'm also a lover of strong, dynamic systems rather than weak, sheared ones. So yeah, I pretty much prefer whatever outcome produces the strongest system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 This was my third all time favorite storm behind only Hurricane Irene and Sandy - And before someone jumps down my throat, I mean favorite purely from a meteorlogical standpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 To me there is a big difference between an actual plowable snowfall and a coating that will be gone when the sun comes out. I'm also a lover of strong, dynamic systems rather than weak, sheared ones. So yeah, I pretty much prefer whatever outcome produces the strongest system.now that I think about it, I agree a nice dynamic system is worth more than a dusting. Although we haven't had any snow yet so I really miss it u know... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 This was my third all time favorite storm behind only Hurricane Irene and Sandy - And before someone jumps down my throat, I mean favorite purely from a meteorlogical standpoint. How about March 2010? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 now that I think about it, I agree a nice dynamic system is worth more than a dusting. Although we haven't had any snow yet so I really miss it u know... It's November 12th. Most seasons we don't have legit threats before Christmas. The last few years have been the exception. Just be happy that most things are looking favorable. Winters like 2011-2012 make you appreciate the good years more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 How about March 2010? That is March 13, 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 It's November 12th. Most seasons we don't have legit threats before Christmas. The last few years have been the exception. Just be happy that most things are looking favorable. Winters like 2011-2012 make you appreciate the good years more.sounds good yanks now this is my fav past storm besides sandy and Irene Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 I heard 96 blizzard was even more intense and definitely more widespread but didn't live in NYC than. I used to live in Luxembourg back than. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 That is March 13, 2010. That was an intense rainstorm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 in January 1977 there was an inland runner that caused snow to rain with temperatures in the 40's and much colder on the back side...December 2000 had an inland runner causing heavy rain and record breaking high temperatures...inland runners can come at any time during any pattern...1888 was the king of inland runners and it still had a blizzard and record cold... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 That was an intense rainstorm here. The winds were epic and I think we received over 4" of rain. I can trace my fondness of rainstorms back to this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 in January 1977 there was an inland runner that caused snow to rain with temperatures in the 40's and much colder on the back side...December 2000 had an inland runner causing heavy rain and record breaking high temperatures...inland runners can come at any time during any pattern...1888 was the king of inland runners and it still had a blizzard and record cold... Yeah, that was a historic blizzard for Buffalo and and over a 40 degree temperature drop for us behind the front. PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1030 AM EST FRI JAN 24 1997... ...TWENTIETH ANNIVERSARY OF THE BLIZZARD APPROACHES... THE STORY OF THE BLIZZARD OF '77 ACTUALLY BEGAN EARLY IN THE WINTER OF 1976-1977. THE WEATHER WAS UNUSUALLY HARSH LEADING UP TO THE BLIZZARD. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR BOTH NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER WAS ABOUT SIX DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. JANUARY AVERAGED TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SEVERE GAS SHORTAGES WERE ALREADY UNDERWAY. INDUSTRIES AND SCHOOLS WERE FORCED TO CURTAIL ACTIVITIES AND IN SOME CASES CLOSE. IN ADDITION TO THE EXTREME COLD, SNOWFALL IN NOVEMBER TOTALLED 31.3 INCHES, IN DECEMBER 60.7 INCHES AND THROUGH THE 27TH OF JANUARY 59.1 INCHES. THERE WAS A PERSISTENT SNOWCOVER FROM NOVEMBER 29TH... UNUSUAL FOR A WESTERN NEW YORK WINTER. THE NATIONAL GUARD HAD ALREADY BEEN CALLED TO THE REGION TO HELP CLEAR THE SNOW-CLOGGED CITY STREETS. ON THE 27TH OF JANUARY, LOW PRESSURE CROSSED LAKE ERIE AND MOVED TO JAMES BAY. IT THEN BECAME STALLED EAST OF JAMES BAY. THE STORM THEN ACTUALLY MOVED BACK WEST OVER JAMES BAY BEFORE FINALLY MOVING EAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE STORM BEGAN ON THE 28TH OF JANUARY AS SNOW STARTED FALLING AT 5AM. AS WINDS FRESHENED FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT ABOUT TWO INCHES OF NEW POWDER HAD ACCUMULATED ON TOP OF THE 33 INCH SNOWPACK AND DRIFTS FROM PREVIOUS STORMS DATING BACK BEFORE CHRISTMAS. DURING THE MORNING, THE TEMPERATURE ROSE RAPIDLY FROM FIVE DEGREES AT MIDNIGHT TO 26 DEGREES AT 11 AM. AT 1135AM, THE FRONT PASSED THROUGH THE BUFFALO AIRPORT. IN A SHORT TIME, THE VISIBILITY DROPPED FROM 3/4 MILE TO ZERO AND THE WIND SHIFTED AND INCREASED TO SOUTHWEST AT 29 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 49 MPH. THE TEMPERATURE FELL 26 DEGREES TO ZERO IN JUST OVER FOUR HOURS. THE BLIZZARD REACHED ITS WORST SEVERITY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS WINDS AT THE BUFFALO AIRPORT AVERAGED 46 MPH AND GUSTED TO 69 MPH. GUSTS OF 75 MPH WERE RECORDED AT THE NIAGARA FALLS AIRPORT. WIND CHILLS REACHED FIFTY TO SIXTY DEGREES BELOW ZERO. THOUSANDS WERE STRANDED IN OFFICE BUILDINGS, SCHOOLS, POLICE STATIONS, FIRE HALLS, AND FACTORIES. CARS WERE STALLED EVERYWHERE AND ROADS BECAME IMPASSABLE. WHEN A FIRE BROKE OUT ON WHITNEY PLACE, FIRE FIGHTING EQUIPMENT WAS UNABLE TO GET THROUGH. SIX HOMES WERE COMPLETELY DESTROYED AND FIFTY PEOPLE WERE LEFT HOMELESS. NEARLY ALL TRANSPORTATION IN AND OUT OF BUFFALO STOPPED. IN ADDITION TO ERIE COUNTY, STATES OF EMERGENCY WERE DECLARED IN NIAGARA, ORLEANS AND GENESEE COUNTIES. ALL ROADS WERE CLOSED IN WYOMING AND LIVINGSTON COUNTIES AS WELL. BLIZZARD OR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS PREVAILED ON AND OFF FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS, ENDING AROUND MIDDAY ON FEBRUARY 1ST. DAILY PEAK GUSTS OF 51, 52, 58, AND 46 MPH WERE RECORDED FROM THE 29TH THROUGH THE 1ST. ON SATURDAY THE 29TH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS PREVAILED. FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 143 YEARS, THE BUFFALO COURIER EXPRESS COULD NOT PUBLISH ITS MORNING PAPER. THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ISSUED A DECLARATION OF EMERGENCY WHICH ALLOWED THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT TO COME IN AND PROVIDE WHATEVER WAS NEEDED TO RESTORE NORMALCY TO THE REGION. BY THE 30TH, FEDERAL OFFICIALS HAD TAKEN OVER SNOW REMOVAL OPERATIONS AND BEFORE THE END OF THE STORM OVER 500 NATIONAL GUARDSMEN WERE HELPING IN THE DISASTER. IT WAS ESTIMATED THAT SNOW REMOVAL COSTS EXCEEDED 20 MILLION DOLLARS. SNOWMOBILERS AND THOSE WITH FOUR WHEEL DRIVE BECAME INVALUABLE AS THEY DELIVERED EMERGENCY FOOD AND MEDICAL SUPPLIES. SADLY, 29 DEATHS WERE BLAMED ON THE STORM--MANY FOUND FROZEN IN THEIR HALF BURIED CARS DURING THE FOUR DAY ORDEAL. IN ADDITION, LOOTING OF BUSINESSES AND STRANDED CARS ALSO TOOK PLACE BEGINNING ON THE 29TH WITH NEARLY ONE HUNDRED ARRESTED.WHEN THE SUN FINALLY CAME OUT FOR GOOD ON THE 1ST OF FEBRUARY, ITS COLD LIGHT REVEALED A SCENE OF INCREDIBLE DESOLATION IN THE BUFFALO AREA AND OVER THE SEVEN WESTERN COUNTY AREA. THE CITY AS WELL AS MOST OTHER COMMUNITIES BANNED TRAFFIC FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE ARMY WAS CALLED IN FROM FORT BRAGG, NC TO AUGMENT THE NATIONAL GUARDSMEN. SOME OF THE EASTERN SUBURBS OF BUFFALO, PARTICULARLY LANCASTER, WERE BURIED TO THE ROOFS OF HOMES IN SOME CASES. THE STORMS TOLL WAS FELT BY ALL. FACTORIES AND INDUSTRIES WERE CLOSED FOR OVER A WEEK. RETAILERS REPORTED MILLIONS IN LOST SALES AS STORES REMAINED CLOSED. AT THE BUFFALO ZOO, OVER 20 ANIMALS PERISHED IN THE STORM AND DAMAGE WAS ESTIMATED AT NEARLY A HALF A MILLION DOLLARS.FOUR BUFFALO BRAVES PROFESSIONAL BASKETBALL GAMES WERE POSTPONED AS WELL AS TWO BUFFALO SABRES HOCKEY GAMES. MAIL DELIVERY WAS SUSPENDED FOR NEARLY A WEEK ALSO.PRESIDENT CARTER DECLARED SEVEN WESTERN COUNTIES FEDERAL DISASTER AREAS -- THE FIRST TIME EVER FOR A SNOWSTORM IN THE UNITED STATES.THE SNOW AT BUFFALO TOTALLED ABOUT 12 INCHES FROM JANUARY 28TH TO FEBRUARY 1ST BUT MUCH OF THIS IS BELIEVED TO BE FROM EXISTING SNOW LYING ON THE FROZEN SURFACE OF LAKE ERIE BEING BLOWN INTO THE BUFFALO AREA AND REDEPOSITED.LEVAN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 I heard 96 blizzard was even more intense and definitely more widespread but didn't live in NYC than. I used to live in Luxembourg back than. 96' was more widespread. 12/26/10 was very intense over this immediate area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Can we talk about november here? Take the 96, 2000's else where. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Gfs came in slightly wetter and colder for Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Gfs came in slightly wetter and colder for Fridayso did nam. Could this be the surprise of this cold pattern setting up. Heck maybe we could squeeze a car topper right here in nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 18z GFS OP is somewhat interesting for Monday night, especially north and west. Many areas would likely flip to wet snow on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Gfs came in colder and further east for Mondays storm. It takes a coastal track. I wouldn't be shocked to see this trend colder with the abundance of cold air aroundn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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