SnoSki14 Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 GFS/GFS Parrarel and Euro agree on a heavy rain threat for the east. It's like an inch of rain. A miserable cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Thats more typical of november. Rain coastal sections and inland well N&W of NYC mix and snow predominently. the parallel GFS hasnt done half bad of late, looks like the EURO may actually have some competition now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 I think you mean a record high minimum. Duh..yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 I thought the colder anomalies would shift further east this winter due to the warmer waters off the west coast being confined further east. We would see a bunch of cutters if this pattern continued during the winter months if blocking is absent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 12z RGEM is warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 on this date in 1968 there was a noreaster that brought rain mixed with sleet at times...There was one on the 10th also...I was at a Jet game at Shea stadium and it was sleeting during the game...No record of snow or sleet in Central Park...November 1968 had two or three noreasters after a warm start to the month...I believe the next time we got a noreaster that year was on February 9-10th 1969...this year the coastal storms started earlier like in 2002... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 I thought the colder anomalies would shift further east this winter due to the warmer waters off the west coast being confined further east. We would see a bunch of cutters if this pattern continued during the winter months if blocking is absent. Thats what i aluded to earlier, when the pattern relaxes and reloads with more cold later in december. if we dont start showing signs of any established blocking east or west based around greenland it will be cold, rain, wash, rinse, repeat save for occasional transient blocking. This isnt our month for snow, however in december our chances even for coastal locals increase dramatically. Blocking and +PNA will be crucial if we want to see snow with the cold air that will be available Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Another warm day today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Another warm day today I know its awesome outside today. Wouldnt mind having a stretch of these days during a cold winter to break it up. I for one look forward to those toasty temps in january during the break between cold snaps. Last winter never really had warm temps post mid december Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Another warm day today Wearing short sleeves in November ftl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 A few tenths for Friday on the 12z ECWMF. It's a tick more amplified than 00z. Could be a car topper NW of 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 A few tenths for Friday on the 12z ECWMF. It's a tick more amplified than 00z. Could be a car topper NW of 95. Maybe our first flurries of season city east between 42-48 if the moisture lingers long enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Maybe our first flurries of season city east between 42-48 if the moisture lingers long enough. Yeh Minus 8 at 850 . Upper 30`s and falling , so prob a few snow showers around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 The ECMWF is slower with the southern energy for the second system and it results in a much cleaner phase. Should be a very wet run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Yeh Minus 8 at 850 . Upper 30`s and falling , so prob a few snow showers around Yeah, should be frozen if the precip verifies and we don't dry out faster than the models show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Roughly an inch and a half of rain. Temps in the 50/60's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Ridge axis to far West , that ridge off the EC really flexes it`s muscle . No choice but on this run to track up the APPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 I thought the colder anomalies would shift further east this winter due to the warmer waters off the west coast being confined further east. We would see a bunch of cutters if this pattern continued during the winter months if blocking is absent. Yeah, this thinking shouldn't make anyone a weenie either, its a legit gripe. Its hard to get snow in November, I dont think really anyone is expecting it. However when and if we reload the pattern in early December or whatever, if we dont feature some sort of blocking, its going to be cutter after cutter. That doesn't mean it won't snow, but more than likely there wouldn't be much, and the systems wouldn't be all that impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Roughly an inch and a half of rain. Temps in the 50/60's Oh good a warm miserable rain versus a cold one. I thought we wouldn't see 60s for a while but guess not. I'll be happy if we get our first snowflakes Friday though as it shows progress towards winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Oh good a warm miserable rain versus a cold one. I thought we wouldn't see 60s for a while but guess not. I'll be happy if we get our first snowflakes Friday though as it shows progress towards winter. Why does it have to be miserable? I love a good rainstorm. Especially if it ends up being really wrapped up like the GFS parallel indicates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Why does it have to be miserable? I love a good rainstorm. Especially if it ends up being really wrapped up like the GFS parallel indicates. 60's with rain over 30's with rain is ALOT better, if its gonna rain atleast let it be warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Yeah, this thinking shouldn't make anyone a weenie either, its a legit gripe. Its hard to get snow in November, I dont think really anyone is expecting it. However when and if we reload the pattern in early December or whatever, if we dont feature some sort of blocking, its going to be cutter after cutter. That doesn't mean it won't snow, but more than likely there wouldn't be much, and the systems wouldn't be all that impressive It's interesting that the record October record blocking beginning in 2002 usually featured a relaxation in November before reloading for DJF. So what we are seeing now is going according to script. The shift in blocking this month to the Pacific is also textbook. The strong +PDO pattern is just focusing the blocking over NW Canada/ Alaska instead of the Bering Sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Oh good a warm miserable rain versus a cold one. I thought we wouldn't see 60s for a while but guess not. I'll be happy if we get our first snowflakes Friday though as it shows progress towards winter. Dude it's november, be happy the pattern is getting active. We have a long way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Dude it's november, be happy the pattern is getting active. We have a long way to go. Bam. People are getting too nervous way to early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Bam. People are getting too nervous way to early. The greatest November cutter of the last 30 years was 11-11-95 with severe thunderstorms and gusts to 75 mph in Long Beach. Trees were downed everywhere and the western half of Long Beach lost power for the better part of a day. We all know how that winter turned out. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1995/us1112.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 The greatest November cutter of the last 30 years was 11-11-95 with severe thunderstorms and gusts to 75 mph in Long Beach. Trees were downed everywhere and the western half of Long Beach lost power for the better part of a day. We all know how that winter turned out. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1995/us1112.php The NAO was negative that entire month too and we could not get any of those storms in the first couple of weeks to take favorable tracks...November is a different world, especially before the 20th-25th to get a coastal system even when the NAO is negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 The greatest November cutter of the last 30 years was 11-11-95 with severe thunderstorms and gusts to 75 mph in Long Beach. Trees were downed everywhere and the western half of Long Beach lost power for the better part of a day. We all know how that winter turned out. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1995/us1112.php The cutter of cutters! But seriously we should all be looking at the pattern and agree with what you said about blocking in october 2002 fading in november only to come back DJF. Whether that happens again according to plan has obviously yet to be seen but no panic should happen right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Euro ensemble mean is warm and wet for the Sunday/Monday system. Matches up with the op pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Euro ensemble mean is warm and wet for the Sunday/Monday system. Matches up with the op pretty well. I thought we were entering a very cold period. All I see and read is about the coming cold. Warm & Rain does not look to be a good set up for an epic November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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