REDMK6GLI Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 It`s Nov 12 . Patience buddy . Paul wasnt referring to it snowing in november as its not a winter month for our area. Was referencing the lack of blocking so far with the cold expected, and after a relaxation and reload if we can finally get an established west or east based -NAO to give us some kind of atlantic blocking regime to work in tandem with the -AO, +PNA etc. Lacking any kind of blocking, save for a rogue 50/50 or any kind of confluence in SE canada storms can just cut. November is known for cold, rain, cold patterns i know. This is just a reference into a scenario post-reload of cold air after pattern relaxes end of this month beginning of december. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 exactly - these cold outbreaks do not have the same effect on the lower levels of the atmoshere closer to the coast including where we are walking around in November as they would 1 month from now so don't expect to much from this first round except a couple inches of snow in most places - but from all indications by mid December we should get the reload and that one will be more impressive... Read my response, this wasnt made in hopes of nailing a november snowfall but rather blocking being established after the cold reloads in december Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Read my response, this wasnt made in hopes of nailing a november snowfall but rather blocking being established after the cold reloads in december Agree - plus those NAO and other indicie forecast charts have not been accurate lately http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 The 00z GGEM has a bit of a mix and or snow NW of the city for Thursday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Agree - plus those NAO and other indicie forecast charts have not been accurate lately http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif No they havent and thats where pattern analysis over relying on a computer models forecast comes into play. like i stated although we may possibly pull a couple of inches of snow out of this cold snap. more should not be expected climatologically speaking and what the pattern is showing with the lack of blocking, any sort of blocking established or transient in matter of fact. Still watching the following weekend (22-23) but thats wayyyy in the future Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 The 00z GGEM has a bit of a mix and or snow NW of the city for Thursday night its going to take a moderate to heavy burst of snow to whiten the ground in the immediate metro area - those inland locations around I 80 north and west should see at least a trace to an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 its going to take a moderate to heavy burst of snow to whiten the ground in the immediate metro area - those inland locations around I 80 north and west should see at least a trace to an inch I'll let you know if I get anything. Not expecting anything more than a car topper, if anything at all. We're past peak here in the foliage department but we still have another two weeks or so until we're completely bare, so hopefully it's not enough to cause much damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 I know temps are set to plummet later on but we would've achieved a record low minimum this morning as temps stayed in the upper 50s all night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 As John was alluding to yesterday we can see a pullback coming as we go from mid Thanksgiving week into the 1st week of Dec . Some of these departures from normal in the Midwest are just absurd so some moderation had to be expected . The GEFS doesn't break down the -EPO/+PNA pattern as much in the long range. We will moderate somewhat before Thanksgiving day, before another reload could be occurring at the end of this month: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 The 12z NAM still basically shows nothing for Thursday/Friday. The 09z SREF mean is < 0.10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongIslandWx Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 I know temps are set to plummet later on but we would've achieved a record low minimum this morning as temps stayed in the upper 50s all night I think you mean a record high minimum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 The 12z NAM still basically shows nothing for Thursday/Friday. The 09z SREF mean is < 0.10". After last winter, I will only use the NAM at 12 hours or less. Not really expecting much of anything Thursday night. Most reports indicate rain or snow showers possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Minus 6 at 850 - BL mid 30`s NW upper 30`s KNYC . Think some see some snow in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 After last winter, I will only use the NAM at 12 hours or less. Not really expecting much of anything Thursday night. Most reports indicate rain or snow showers possible. After last winter? The NAM is pretty much useless at any range, i cant even take that model seriously. Under 24 hours the Hi-Res models are the way to go. Outside of 24-48hrs i reference the GFS/ECMWF/GGEM etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 The 12z GFS OP is more organized down near OBX. This in turn results in most of the moisutre getting pulled OTS. I've personally always felt that this was nothing more than a few sprinkles with a few wet flakes mixed in well north and west. Where it's cold enough for snow, it has the least amount of dynamics to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 RGEM and the GFS shows rain and snow for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Still a few tenths of an inch on the Parallel GFS but it's real close to being dry. I'll believe it when I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 RGEM and the GFS shows rain and snow for the coast. Is there a special weenie version of the GFS that I've never heard of that shows snow for the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Is there a special weenie version of the GFS that I've never heard of that shows snow for the coast? Threat is dead, need to start looking at early next weeks storm now and possible ramifications from that storm down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 The GFS showing the first trace for the coast early Friday would come just two days later than last November 12th. NYC 11-12-13 52 31 42 -7 23 0 0.03 T http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/model/gfs048hr_sfc_ptyp.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Threat is dead, need to start looking at early next weeks storm now and possible ramifications from that storm down the road. Threat is dead? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111212/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_8.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 The GFS showing the first trace for the coast early Friday would come just two days later than last November 12th. NYC 11-12-13 52 31 42 -7 23 0 0.03 T http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/model/gfs048hr_sfc_ptyp.gif Would be nice to record an inch at 1201 AM Sat , so I win the contest . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 The secondary event for the Monday time frame should have a good amount of southern stream involvement and Gulf moisture to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 The secondary event for the Monday time frame should have a good amount of southern stream involvement and Gulf moisture to work with. A lot of rain for the coast and snow well inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 A lot of rain for the coast and snow well inland. The surface is still pretty warm. Again you run into the situation where the coldest air is displaced from the best dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 The surface is still pretty warm. Again you run into the situation where the coldest air is displaced from the best dynamics. I never said that the snow will stick. Any flakes this time of the year is a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 The surface is still pretty warm. Again you run into the situation where the coldest air is displaced from the best dynamics.Me and you both talked about the friday and monday storm being most if not all rain for coastal areas. the following weekend storm "currently" shows more promise for snow that these two but its still too early to dive into details something 8-10 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 The 12z GFS parallel has a more organized scenraio with more of a complete phase and an organized, deepening coastal hugger. Would make for one heck of a rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 The 12z GFS parallel has a more organized scenraio with more of a complete phase and an organized, deepening coastal hugger. Would make for one heck of a rainstorm. GFS/GFS Parrarel and Euro agree on a heavy rain threat for the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 The parallel GFS wraps some decent cold air in on the backside, but we all know that these things never typcially pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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