IsentropicLift Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Too bad the 18z GFS Parallel won't verify, that would be like a cane over land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 I am so eager for our first big snow (if we even have one) of the year. Just the model watching etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 The big picture here is that we are even tracking something like this in November. The conversations will be the same in January but we should be thrilled to be looking at even fantasy solutions like this so early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 fog event antoinette begins tonight ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY. * LOCATIONS...LONG ISLAND...NEW YORK CITY AND THE NORTHERN SUBURBS...AND ALL OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY. * HAZARDS...DENSE FOG. * VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. * TIMING...AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. * IMPACTS...REDUCED VISIBILITIES...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 fog event antoinette begins tonight ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY. * LOCATIONS...LONG ISLAND...NEW YORK CITY AND THE NORTHERN SUBURBS...AND ALL OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY. * HAZARDS...DENSE FOG. * VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. * TIMING...AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. * IMPACTS...REDUCED VISIBILITIES...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 GFS has the Monday storm slightly west of the benchmark now with cold temps around. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 NAM and GFS both appear to show snow showers on Thursday night/Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 GFS for Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhillyBlizzard17 Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Monday system much more interesting on the 00z GFS. Looks colder especially at 850mb as well. Seems like maybe a rain to snow solution on GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 0z GGEM for Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 0z GFS snowmap from the little wave on Friday and the storm on Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 GFS for Monday looks great. The only thing we would want it to do to produce a snowstorm is come in at nighttime and be stronger. I would think that as the precipitation comes in it will initially be dry, and have verga before it finally moistens the atmosphere. As it gets more humid the pressure will drop and strengthen the system. Our problem is that's 130 hours away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 looks great. The only thing we would want it to do to produce a snowstorm is come in at nighttime and be stronger. I would think that as the precipitation comes in it will initially be dry, and have verga before it finally moistens the atmosphere. As it gets more humid the pressure will drop and strengthen the system. Our problem is that's 130 hours away. Edit: I also like the idea that global warming and/or climate change could make it an extreme storm since this fall will be especially cold. Nights are long results a perfect mix for a winter storm. Its not December but it'll be mid November. We might have a storm in our hand though because of climate change. Yup u called it ❄❄❄❄❄❄❄ :huh: :huh: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 I wouldn't want a snowstorm this early. Trees still have leaves, plus any snowstorm would most likely be comprised of wet snow. Not a good scenario. I'd be happy with an inch or two. There is nothing more magical than the season's first snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 looks great. The only thing we would want it to do to produce a snowstorm is come in at nighttime and be stronger. I would think that as the precipitation comes in it will initially be dry, and have verga before it finally moistens the atmosphere. As it gets more humid the pressure will drop and strengthen the system. Our problem is that's 130 hours away. Edit: I also like the idea that global warming and/or climate change could make it an extreme storm since this fall will be especially cold. Nights are long results a perfect mix for a winter storm. Its not December but it'll be mid November. We might have a storm in our hand though because of climate change. Yup u called it ❄❄❄❄❄❄❄ Oh dear God, who let this weenie out of the playpen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Well, all I can say is that "Watching models is fun" BUT...(IMO) at the end of the day for people at the coast/city I would not count on anything more than a few wet snow flakes. anything more a BONUS,,I look forward to the month of December by then "CLIMO" will be our on side (for the most part) and then all we have to worry about is storm track etc etc etc.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 EURO 0z was warmer (west) than GFS, still plenty of time to change. Didn't really like the setup but I'm sure we could squeeze rain to snow event with maybe an inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 looks great. The only thing we would want it to do to produce a snowstorm is come in at nighttime and be stronger. I would think that as the precipitation comes in it will initially be dry, and have verga before it finally moistens the atmosphere. As it gets more humid the pressure will drop and strengthen the system. Our problem is that's 130 hours away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 What kind of response is that with climate change? Quite possibly one of the worst responses ive read on here in a longggg time. Straight up delusional I don't think he even knows what he said.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 What kind of response is that with climate change? Quite possibly one of the worst responses ive read on here in a longggg time. Straight up delusional your right it was a bad post but I'm trying to say that most storms will be overachievers because IMO climate change will cause storms to be more violent not this particular one but generally speaking in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 6z (regular, not parallel) GFS continues to look interesting for overnight Thursday night into Friday morning. Some 700mb frontogenesis and even a bit of omega has snuck in this run. 00z GEFS mean was also pretty interesting, with even a few solid (for this time of year) hits on the individuals. I do wonder if the GFS's coarse resolution is affecting its QPF, as it could be broadening some of the lift and thus extending QPF further north than other guidance. We'll see. It's not a bad setup for a pseudo post-frontal overrunning with some PVA working in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 As John was alluding to yesterday we can see a pullback coming as we go from mid Thanksgiving week into the 1st week of Dec . Some of these departures from normal in the Midwest are just absurd so some moderation had to be expected . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 From here on I am going to believe the PGFS rather then the GFS because it is going to replace the flawed GFS in 5 weeks and from what I have read from some METS around the internet it is performing quite well so far. The 6Z PGFS gives 0 snow accumulation for the Thursday night event BUT the early next week event around the 17 -18th gives the region its first snow accumulation of the season and the last few cycles of model runs has shown this - we start as rain or a mix BUT change over to snow and just a couple miles inland from the immediate coast gets 1 -3 inches with 3 - 6 inches interior NJ and points N and W. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111206/gfsp_asnow_eus_26.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 As John was alluding to yesterday we can see a pullback coming as we go from mid Thanksgiving week into the 1st week of Dec . Some of these departures from normal in the Midwest are just absurd so some moderation had to be expected . During any cold snap/pattern a relaxation is going to happen. Next question is how long it will take for the cold to reload and can we get some better blocking for better EC cyclogensis, something we have been lacking of late. Cold air is here paul and the pacific side is cooperating, have to kick the atlantic near greenland in the ass into gear now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 During any cold snap/pattern a relaxation is going to happen. Next question is how long it will take for the cold to reload and can we get some better blocking for better EC cyclogensis, something we have been lacking of late. Cold air is here paul and the pacific side is cooperating, have to kick the atlantic near greenland in the ass into gear now It`s Nov 12 . Patience buddy . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 I thought this turn to cold would last longer but it's far more temporary than I thought and we actually go above normal after the 20th or so. That's a significant relaxation or even pattern shift in less than 10 days. The month should still end up below normal because the negative departures are going to be too difficult to displace even if we flip to milder again but it'll be warmer than last November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 It`s Nov 11 . Patience buddy . And our snowiest recent Decembers got started late in 2009 on the 19th and 2010 on the 26th. Some years like 2004-2005 we hardly had any December snow and went on to a 40" season. Too me November is a bonus month if we get snow and has very little bearing on the winter pattern. The rare instances like November 17, 33, and 76 where we got the very cold signal ahead of record breaking winter cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 It`s Nov 12 . Patience buddy . exactly - these cold outbreaks do not have the same effect on the lower levels of the atmoshere closer to the coast including where we are walking around in November as they would 1 month from now so don't expect to much from this first round except a couple inches of snow in most places - but from all indications by mid December we should get the reload and that one will be more impressive... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 And our snowiest recent Decembers got started late in 2009 on the 19th and 2010 on the 26th. Some years like 2004-2005 we hardly had any December snow and went on to a 40" season. Too me November is a bonus month if we get snow and has very little bearing on the winter pattern. The rare instances like November 34, 17, and 76 where we got the very cold signal ahead of record breaking winter cold. I just think people need to have a reasonable expectation of what Nov should yield you at 40 N. If we manage a few inches of Snow and finish Minus 2 out of this 10 day pattern that`s not a bad start . ( And if we don`t it`s Nov ) . So I definitely agree with you . Looking down the road the pattern is favorable for the winter to be colder than normal I have seen far worse set ups that have given me great angst in the past that my Dec - Feb were going to stink . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 I just think people need to have a reasonable expectation of what Nov should yield you at 40 N. If we manage a few inches of Snow and finish Minus 2 out of this 10 day pattern that`s not a bad start . ( And if we don`t it`s Nov ) . So I definitely agree with you . Looking down the road the pattern is favorable for the winter to be colder than normal I have seen far worse set ups that have given me great angst in the past that my Dec - Feb were going to stink . I agree. The early +PDO signal will provide the cold with -EPO intervals. The October Greenland blocking signal will enhance the potential for another above normal snowfall season by the time the winter is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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