SnoSki14 Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Why would anyone analyze a Day 10 storm when a Day 5 storm is already difficult enough to forecast. One at a time please. I'm all for analyzing a pattern up to 10 days out because it's far more stable but analyzing a storm that far out proves impossible. The fact that snow threats exist already is good enough for me. If I had to guess then the real fun begins after the relaxation period. Everything favors blocking developing as we go further in so things should be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 The 144 hr low on the Euro is going to come too far west for the coast and city without much blocking near the Davis Strait. Interior Northeast looks to have the best chance of frozen unless the blocking increases in later runs. ecmwf_z500a_nhem_7.png Snow in november is a bonus, that is an awesome pattern setting up and that's what should count. We still have 4-5 weeks to go before winter sets in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Take a look at the difference at 500 at 240 on the OP vs the Ensembles . Notice how on the OP the Euro drags it feet with the SW feature and slows the PV in through Central Canada allowing the ridge to bulge on the EC . The Ensembles are deeper and displaces the PV further East allowing more cold air to get entrained .When we look at the 850`s you can how much colder they are to the coast . 10 days out so its just worth noting watch the ensembles this far out I think they have a better handle than Op run to OP run . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Take a look at the difference at 500 at 240 on the OP vs the Ensembles . Notice how on the OP the Euro drags it feet with the SW feature and slows the PV in through Central Canada allowing the ridge to bulge on the EC . The Ensembles are deeper and displaces the PV further East allowing more cold air to get entrained .When we look at the 850`s you can how much colder they are to the coast . 10 days out so its just worth noting watch the ensembles this far out I think they have a better handle than Op run to OP run . Paul, It's amazing how this pattern is setting up for us this early in the season. I think we may get a burst of snow Friday. Heavy rain Sunday night when it could change to some patchy snow showers and get cold setting up the stage for next Thursdays storm. Too early but so far I like the setup for the day 10 storm. Notice the setup for Sunday night into Monday system, it's cold but the high pressure is too Far East and we have extra low by the lakes which will screw up our chances for a full blown snowstorm. Could change just don't think that setup will do it. Next Thursday I'm in for that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Paul, It's amazing how this pattern is setting up for us this early in the season. I think we may get a burst of snow Friday. Heavy rain Sunday night when it could change to some patchy snow showers and get cold setting up the stage for next Thursdays storm. Too early but so far I like the setup for the day 10 storm. Notice the setup for Sunday night into Monday system, it's cold but the high pressure is too Far East and we have extra low by the lakes which will screw up our chances for a full blown snowstorm. Could change just don't think that setup will do it. Next Thursday I'm in for that! The ensembles look more like day 10 into 11. They are tad slower than the OP. The ensembles have been leaning on the 22nd for a few days That's the following Sat . But one at a time. I Just wanted to point out the differences between the OP and the Ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Paul, It's amazing how this pattern is setting up for us this early in the season. I think we may get a burst of snow Friday. Heavy rain Sunday night when it could change to some patchy snow showers and get cold setting up the stage for next Thursdays storm. Too early but so far I like the setup for the day 10 storm. Notice the setup for Sunday night into Monday system, it's cold but the high pressure is too Far East and we have extra low by the lakes which will screw up our chances for a full blown snowstorm. Could change just don't think that setup will do it. Next Thursday I'm in for that! The PGFS is closer to the correct solution for day 10 then the GFS. The reason the PGFS was created was to correct the flaw in the GFS of its over emphahsis of the northern stream which many times gives it a southeast bias for east coast storms and it finally finds the correct solution closer to the event - thats why it is showing a snowstorm at day 10 - the new PGFS is closer to the Euro solution...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Waiting till monday to actually start taking the nov. 22-23 threat seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 The PGFS is closer to the correct solution for day 10 then the GFS. The reason the PGFS was created was to correct the flaw in the GFS of its over emphahsis of the northern stream which many times gives it a southeast bias for east coast storms and it finally finds the correct solution closer to the event - thats why it is showing a snowstorm at day 10 - the new PGFS is closer to the Euro solution...... The Euro is much closer to the GFS op, not sure why you think it's close to the PGFS, I don't see that at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 The Euro is much closer to the GFS op, not sure why you think it's close to the PGFS, I don't see that at all. Agree with Isentropiclift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Snow in november is a bonus, that is an awesome pattern setting up and that's what should count. We still have 4-5 weeks to go before winter sets in. That's the way I look at it since 30 year means are only 0.3 snow at NYC for November. You need to get lucky for an early record snow like we saw right after Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Agree with Isentropiclift With the state of flux this pattern is shaping up to be, to be honest with you I wouldn't take any model seriously until we're under 100 hours. That being said, we need to watch for the possibility of an early season winter storm within the next ten days or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Waiting till monday to actually start taking the nov. 22-23 threat seriously. Keep us informed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 18z GFS says uhh yeah 12z was on crack. Much warmer system, like the EURO. No snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Also the 18z P GFS looks identical to the EURO cutter and WARM WARM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Also the 18z P GFS looks identical to the EURO cutter and WARM WARM. if the storm cuts of course it will flood with warm air, i dont think anyone is arguing to the contrary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane11 Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 18z New GFS says rain changing to heavy, wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 if the storm cuts of course it will flood with warm air, i dont think anyone is arguing to the contrary. No...your kidding me wow, thanks for that didn't know that, I thought if a low cut to the west it would be freezing, maybe even sub 0 lol.jk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 18z New GFS says rain changing to heavy, wet snow. Haha, what model are you looking at lmao. No it doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 No...your kidding me wow, thanks for that didn't know that, I thought if a low cut to the west it would be freezing, maybe even sub 0 lol.jk Maybe not everyone knew that? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Maybe not everyone knew that? Lol Hence the JK part of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane11 Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Haha, what model are you looking at lmao. No it doesn't. GFS-PARA > hr 162. Have a closer look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 GFS-PARA > hr 162. Have a closer look. That's a different period we are talking about right now. We are talking about the day 9-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane11 Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 That's a different period we are talking about right now. We are talking about the day 9-10. Ohhh gotcha. Ok. Why? lol. Isn't this one a sooner threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Ohhh gotcha. Ok. Why? lol. Isn't this one a sooner threat? Yes, I just really don't see it being much other than rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 The Euro is much closer to the GFS op, not sure why you think it's close to the PGFS, I don't see that at all. what is this close too ? I don't believe I have ever seen this on Nov 18th - another extreme if this verifies http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111118/gfsp_asnow_us_28.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Also the 18z P GFS looks identical to the EURO cutter and WARM WARM. It will change a million times if your talking about Day 10. Also worry about the pattern and not every model run. I see the chance at some snow before the pattern relaxes but I wouldn't expect more than that. It's not a favorable blocking pattern that would yield snow right now and a lot of things are still falling into place. The models will change rapidly and I hate model watching. If it's rain then so be it, a couple weeks ago November was supposed to torch and models failed on that idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 NCEP Ensemble 850 mb Temperature Anomaly Probability http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850std_us_alltimes.html I think this loop speaks for itself ..... Broom Worthy Weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 what is this close too ? I don't believe I have ever seen this on Nov 18th - another extreme if this verifieshttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111118/gfsp_asnow_us_28.png You will not find that on many Dec 18th weather maps either. Crazy that the model sees the country that cold as a whole and that it's even modeled to do that in mid Nov Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 The potential storm's 10 days away and we're deciphering para-this and NAV-that to find the rain/snow line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 The potential storm's 10 days away and we're deciphering para-this and NAV-that to find the rain/snow line? Like clockwork this time of year the NYC Metro Forum never disappoints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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