DiehardFF Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 11/20 to 11/25 time frame looks to be our possible shot at first wintry weather. NAO looks to go negative as well. As yanks stated, the 12z GFS painted a classic look. Of course, as always, its too far out to look into the details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 He's talking about the event beyond that I think I'm talking about this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 I'm talking about this That looks much better with the HP to the north - BUT its 240 out let's see if it starts changing as we get closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 FWIW at this range, the 12z GEFS do support the idea of a low near the East coast in the day 9-10 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Navgem looks a bit wetter for Friday than the other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Navgem looks a bit wetter for Friday than the other models Time to give that one up. But you have at least two better setups to look forward to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Ah the infamous Day 10 gfs snow threats but they're starting early this year and this run managed to push back the relaxation of the pattern a few days from the last run. We're probably going to see the relaxation keep getting pushed back but it will happen. I definitely don't expect a -5 November. I think somewhere from a -2 to -3 is very reasonable though given the upcoming pattern if not a bit lower. I saw the departures thus far and they're still negative but by tomorrow I believe they'll be either near 0 or just above and will push a bit further up from Wednesday's departures before starting to drop again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Ah the infamous Day 10 gfs snow threats but they're starting early this year and this run managed to push back the relaxation of the pattern a few days from the last run. We're probably going to see the relaxation keep getting pushed back but it will happen. I definitely don't expect a -5 November. I think somewhere from a -2 to -3 is very reasonable though given the upcoming pattern if not a bit lower. I saw the departures thus far and they're still negative but by tomorrow I believe they'll be either near 0 or just above and will push a bit further up from Wednesday's departures before starting to drop again. what 10 day snow threat ? 12Z PGFS http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111112/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 what 10 day snow threat ? 12Z PGFS http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111112/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40.png I'm looking at the OP gfs from now until things officially change. Either way it's pure fantasy so it might as well be the PGFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Euro is warm and wet for the Sunday-Monday system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 I'm looking at the OP gfs from now until things officially change. Either way it's pure fantasy so it might as well be the PGFS. isn't that PGFS an updated version of the current GFS and is supposed to be an improvement ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Euro is warm and wet for the Sunday-Monday system. how warm wet and for who. Pattern is ripe for a powder keg storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 isn't that PGFS an updated version of the current GFS and is supposed to be an improvement ? The GGEM had a major upgrade last year and it's just as awful. Point being, we don't have enough data yet to determine if the new GFS has better verification scores. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 how warm wet and for who. Pattern is ripe for a powder keg storm! It's warm and wet for everyone is this sub-forum. You would need to be in the Albany or Boston CWA to have a chance at frozen verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 how warm wet and for who. Pattern is ripe for a powder keg storm! Day 6 warm where the precip falls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 As far as the day 8-10 system is concerned, the southern stream energy that's involved first shows up 5 days from now, so while it may seem like it's complete clown range, some of the pieces to the puzzle are not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 ggem looks like at least first snow for most thursday night and friday, nothing big, but it's there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 12z ECMWF in good agreement with the 12z GFS OP day 8-10. Classic Miller A setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Time to give that one up. But you have at least two better setups to look forward to. Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 12z ECMWF in good agreement with the 12z GFS OP day 8-10. Classic Miller A setup. all the caveats about it being early in the season and N and W favored, but there is definitely a nice signal for a storm in that time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Time to give that one up. But you have at least two better setups to look forward to. Why? it depends on expectations, there is no way that it is anything big but, if the expectations are the possibility of seeing the first snow of the year, then i think thursday night/friday is still worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 It's hard to resist the temptation to not completely weenie out over a day 10 op run when they look like this... Storm or no storm, i'll take the porn for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 it depends on expectations, there is no way that it is anything big but, if the expectations are the possibility of seeing the first snow of the year, then i think thursday night/friday is still worth watching. I would not give up yet on the Friday possibility, last winter we saw many cases of events close in ending up more west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 It's hard to resist the temptation to not completely weenie out over a day 10 op run when they look like this... Storm or no storm, i'll take the porn for now. That would be a hefty rain storm. To warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 It depends if you are looking for a snowstorm or rainstorm ..The ECM is not what i would want to see if I was looking for a snowstorm on Day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 The ECMWF would start off as a cold rain that's for sure, but I'm not sure it would end that way, especially just inland. The GFS is plenty cold, outside of Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 We need higher heights near Greenland to prevent the PV from moving back northward too quickly. Otherwise, an inland runner could still be a risk. What would also help is a faster energy ejection. But from a broad perspective, that's still a pretty good setup with the split-flow and at least initial confluence from the strong PV. That airmass may be tough to scour out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 If I could post the 500mb vorticy maps of the Euro, you would see that at 240 hours you have another piece of energy dropping into the backside of the trough. In other words, H5 was about to go off the charts when the run ended. So besides the fact that we're in clown range, way too many variables at this point to say what precip type might be. I can't believe that we're putting this much discussion into a day 10 op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 We need higher heights near Greenland to prevent the PV from moving back northward too quickly. Otherwise, an inland runner could still be a risk. What would also help is a faster energy ejection. But from a broad perspective, that's still a pretty good setup with the split-flow and at least initial confluence from the strong PV. That airmass may be tough to scour out. I think you will see 5 days of a flexing and relaxing of the Vortex on the OP runs . The runs are going to range from fantasy fluff to 40 degrees and driving rain . I like the Euro ensembles ejecting a piece behind the 1st center that comes to the coast early next week . It`s a timing issue in my mind and I will only be interested to see if the piece does not show up at all Every other solution IMO is just OP run to OP run variance . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 The 144 hr low on the Euro is going to come too far west for the coast and city without much blocking near the Davis Strait. Interior Northeast looks to have the best chance of frozen unless the blocking increases in later runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.