bluewave Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 here is an additional link detailing that event http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1996/29-Nov-95-500MillibarMaps.html Yeah, you thing things to work out perfectly to get more than a coating to inch this time of year with an east based -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 The thread the needle scenario that worked with and east based NAO was 11-29-95. That situation didn't have the primary over the lakes like the models are showing for the 144 hr threat. There was an earlier low right ahead of the storm that acted as the 50/50 which allowed the second storm to come out cold. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1995/us1129.php I like the one that trails the 1st. I would almost rather that one rum to the lakes then drag the cold front to the coast and have something develop around the back side and deeper off Hatteras Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 The CFSV2 Dec temps. The warmth right along the coast looks wrong as the model seems to do that for every 5 day period . As it may be overestimating the Atlantic influence . Even though we may pull back . It`s very hard to expect wire to wire cold. However with a favorable Pacific SST look I think we will just re fire this . ala 03- 04 . That is not a bad look for Dec and would expect that cold to carry all the way to the coast . It looks like the CFS is going with a -EPO pattern which is common for December with such a strong +PDO signal. The October signal could also let the ridge build over toward Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 It looks like the CFS is going with a -EPO pattern which is common for December with such a strong +PDO signal. The October signal could also let the ridge build over toward Greenland. PDO.gif Yeh the CFSV2 Dec Jan Feb 500 MB goes right to that look . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 It looks like the pattern will relax a bit by Thanksgiving on the Euro Ensembles...you can see the same on the GEFS. But the -EPO looks likely to continue so we won't exactly be breaking out the shorts. Can't wait for the panic to begin as we start December with a less than perfect pattern... http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/f252.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 It looks like the pattern will relax a bit by Thanksgiving on the Euro Ensembles...you can see the same on the GEFS. But the -EPO looks likely to continue so we won't exactly be breaking out the shorts. Can't wait for the panic to begin as we start December with a less than perfect pattern... http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/f252.gif With the trough S of the Aleutians like that the trough in the East should be deeper . Even the day 15 on the Euro ensembles looking on the Hemispheric you can see the blocking over the top, makes me think if the trough pulls out its really just a quick reversal . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 It looks like the pattern will relax a bit by Thanksgiving on the Euro Ensembles...you can see the same on the GEFS. But the -EPO looks likely to continue so we won't exactly be breaking out the shorts. Can't wait for the panic to begin as we start December with a less than perfect pattern... http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/f252.gif I actually dont think that is an overall bad pattern. Split flow, so maybe some storm chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 With the trough S of the Aleutians like that the trough in the East should be deeper . Even the day 15 on the Euro ensembles looking on the Hemispheric you can see the blocking over the top, makes me think if the trough pulls out its really just a quick reversal . The long-range Euro ensembles have tried to dissipate -EPO/+PNA ridge for good since last winter. Didn't happen this week either. Not buying it, as long we have +PDO and stratosphere in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 It looks like the pattern will relax a bit by Thanksgiving on the Euro Ensembles...you can see the same on the GEFS. But the -EPO looks likely to continue so we won't exactly be breaking out the shorts. Can't wait for the panic to begin as we start December with a less than perfect pattern... http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/f252.gif It's still not a good sign when we're already talking about getting out of the pattern before we even get into the pattern. Last time I checked the forecast still calls for 60s the next two days and we will be above average overall with over a third of the month gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 I actually dont think that is an overall bad pattern. Split flow, so maybe some storm chances. Never said it was bad. I said it would relax...which is exactly what most medium range ensembles are hinting at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 anyone who panics over a long range model run should not look at them...the expectations this year are very high...to high by some...It's November 11th not December 11th... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Never said it was bad. I said it would relax...which is exactly what most medium range ensembles are hinting at.I know, just saying At this point, I'll take my chances with cold air near by and storm chances. The "relax" pattern might end up better for us anyway. Overall I am pleased on how things are progressing moving into the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 anyone who panics over a long range model run should not look at them...the expectations this year are very high...to high by some...It's November 11th not December 11th... Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 It's still not a good sign when we're already talking about getting out of the pattern before we even get into the pattern. Last time I checked the forecast still calls for 60s the next two days and we will be above average overall with over a third of the month gone. I don't understand your point.. Were you expecting a -5 for the month of November? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Hello all ; this is my first post on this board I have been lurking for past few years ; finally decided to join ..anyhow my thoughts yes for the person like me snow anytime I would like to see but reality is by December we can truly watch models and climo will be on our side.which helps a great deal , until then I would be happy to see a few snow flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 It looks like the pattern will relax a bit by Thanksgiving on the Euro Ensembles...you can see the same on the GEFS. But the -EPO looks likely to continue so we won't exactly be breaking out the shorts. Can't wait for the panic to begin as we start December with a less than perfect pattern... http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/f252.gif The pattern still looks good with blocking over the top. A relaxation period should be expected as we will probably reload sometime in mid Dec. it's way too early folks, no need for anyone to panic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Pattern transitions could be a good time to look out for something too. Coming and going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 The pattern still looks good with blocking over the top. A relaxation period should be expected as we will probably reload sometime in mid Dec. it's way too early folks, no need for anyone to panic. I agree with this. The wave progression is classic. The post was more tongue-in-cheek as to the panic that will ensue when the pattern becomes less anomalous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 GFS is coming in with a much more favorable setup aloft late this weekend into early next week compared to earlier runs. Still generally unfavorable/likely to be warm. Just some eye candy at this point.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Not terrible . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 The parallel GFS has a wildly different solution aloft...a piece of southern stream energy trailing the lead disturbance and now the northern stream dropping through the Great Lakes. Disjointed, probably won't produce much...but miles away from the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 The parallel GFS hangs up the energy in the southwest and then attempts to phase in a piece of the PV dropping in on the backside. Interesting scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 The parallel GFS has a wildly different solution aloft...a piece of southern stream energy trailing the lead disturbance and now the northern stream dropping through the Great Lakes. Disjointed, probably won't produce much...but miles away from the OP. Close to an inch of QPF out of it for NYC. In any event, it was close to bombogenisis as we call it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Wonder if that Day 10 setup has legs with the energy coming out of the Pac into the SW US...looks like a SWFE/Overrunning type setup. If that's the case we want the prior system to be strong enough to keep cold air well entrenched.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Wonder if that Day 10 setup has legs with the energy coming out of the Pac into the SW US...looks like a SWFE/Overrunning type setup. If that's the case we want the prior system to be strong enough to keep cold air well entrenched.. GFS op coming in with a classic Miller A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 GFS op coming in with a classic Miller A. yeah. that's a nice look. far away, but to see that in Nov is nuts. I am intrigued by the sun/mon ditty --- especially living way up here in the great NW of NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 GFS op coming in with a classic Miller A. GFS op coming in with a classic Miller A. It is weaker and further east - 6Z was stronger and hugging the coast - still doesn't look right with that LP north of Lake Superior - would rather have HP to the north http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014111112/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_23.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Dec 3- 6 would be a nice way to open DEC if true the it`s 3 days of close to MINUS 15 C in NYC . Just judging by the negative depatures in the Midwest and northeast you can see that's a classic -EPO/+PNA configuration. The warm anomalies in the Atlantic would be indicative of a -NAO as well. Nobody expects wall to wall cold from Nov to Feb but I will say the pattern sure likd exciting the next several weeks at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 It is weaker and further east - 6Z was stronger and hugging the coast - still doesn't look right with that LP north of Lake Superior - would rather have HP to the north http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014111112/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_23.png 12z was about as classic of a miller A setup as you can get. Energy drops down through the four corners region. Phase occurs while the system is over the MS delta. Bombs away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 It is weaker and further east - 6Z was stronger and hugging the coast - still doesn't look right with that LP north of Lake Superior - would rather have HP to the north http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014111112/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_23.png He's talking about the event beyond that I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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