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November 2014


Rtd208

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I love how everyone was saying what a cool and refreshing summer we had this year and yet the JJA average came in at -0.1 degrees, and that's when compared to the warmest 30 year climate block on record.

 

This summer felt so cool and pleasant due to the lack of any real humidity more than anything else in my opinion.

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I like to look at the European Ensembles at 500 when looking 10 days out and it`s no secret that  last year the Japanese weeklies ruled the LT .

 

Many times last year I would peak at the European 850s on it`s Control run to see where some of the colder anomalies were showing up in Canada .

Snow cover over throughout Eurasia and Canada have been posted ad nauseam here but it may be working and by this time next week there is Minus 25 air over the Canadian prairies and Day 10 - 15 is starting to look Colder .

So the Snow cover is working early . 

 The 500 MB below will look colder in the east , this is obv a JB idea for those who watch him , but I beat him to it this AM . Look at the trough Alaska and that ridge off the west coast . So expect the tough in the East to get deeper day 10 through 15

post-7472-0-81776900-1414844981_thumb.pn

post-7472-0-76009900-1414845053_thumb.pn

post-7472-0-13919000-1414845069_thumb.pn

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Awesome looks like we're gonna start to see things finally propagate from above and change our weather pattern. It will also increase the snow threats especially if the cooler than normal weather is present by the second half of November. 

 

It's also really chilly but our high temps are skewed higher because they were closer to 50 around 1am even though it's only 43-44F right now and likely to stay that way. 

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The warm November that people were predicting might be in trouble.

I went slightly above but the 2010's Novembers are averaging cooler than previous decades...I'd like to see a cold November but that doesn't mean December will be...I hope both are cold...the 2010's November's are averaging 47.2 despite a warm 2011 November...another cold November will make the average the coldest since the 1950's...the 2000's had the warmest average...

....Temperature..........................

decade....Nov...

1870's...42.2...

1880's...43.2...

1890's...45.1...

1900's...45.7...

1910's...45.0...

1920's...45.6...

1930's...46.2...

1940's...47.5...

1950's...47.1...

1960's...47.3...

1970's...47.6...

1980's...47.7...

1990's...47.6...

2000's...48.6...

2010's...47.2...

1870-.

2009.....46.2...

1980-

2009.....48.0...

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If we can maintain a +PDO above +1 for November, then there are 7 analog years for NYC.

I left 1976 off the list since that was such an unusually cold fall.

 

2002....-1.1

1997....-3.1

1993....+1.2

1987....+0.5

1986....-1.5

1983....+1.7

1959....-0.8

 

-0.4 average November temperature departure at 47.3 degrees.

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I went slightly above but the 2010's Novembers are averaging cooler than previous decades...I'd like to see a cold November but that doesn't mean December will be...I hope both are cold...the 2010's November's are averaging 47.2 despite a warm 2011 November...another cold November will make the average the coldest since the 1950's...the 2000's had the warmest average...

....Temperature..........................

decade....Nov...

1870's...42.2...

1880's...43.2...

1890's...45.1...

1900's...45.7...

1910's...45.0...

1920's...45.6...

1930's...46.2...

1940's...47.5...

1950's...47.1...

1960's...47.3...

1970's...47.6...

1980's...47.7...

1990's...47.6...

2000's...48.6...

2010's...47.2...

1870-.

2009.....46.2...

1980-

2009.....48.0...

It's honestly awesome what you contribute to this forum. Crazy the uptick over the decades. 6 degrees of increase is remarkable given the relatively short time (in Earth's life). Cool to see how dramatically it's gone the other way despite one warm year already. Cheers!
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It's honestly awesome what you contribute to this forum. Crazy the uptick over the decades. 6 degrees of increase is remarkable given the relatively short time (in Earth's life). Cool to see how dramatically it's gone the other way despite one warm year already. Cheers!

I think a lot has to do with the development of the city...in the 1800's most of the outer boroughs were farms and forests...building booms in the 1890's, 1930's and 1970's...Now it's tar mostly and cement...on clear windless nights it doesn't get as cold as it used to because of that...the cities coldest days are windy...since the 1940's the average has been in the 47's...the 1930's had some cold Novembers for a warm decade...

max/min 27/15 on 11/28/30...28/12 on 11/27/32...30/17 11/16/33...18 min 11/18-19/36...29/16 11/26/38...2" snow 11/27/31...8" snow 11/24/38...

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I hope this November's average departure for NYC turns out to be -2.5 like last November. It would be great to see a repeat of that. And what would even be more encouraging is if we start December with high temps staying in the mid-30s for 4-5 consecutive days like last year. That to me is a precursor to a great winter since 2010-2011 featured a December like that as well.

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I hope this November's average departure for NYC turns out to be -2.5 like last November. It would be great to see a repeat of that. And what would even be more encouraging is if we start December with high temps staying in the mid-30s for 4-5 consecutive days like last year. That to me is a precursor to a great winter since 2010-2011 featured a December like that as well.

2010-2011 was a blockbuster Hecs winter but not a prolonged one. Essentially just a 30 day winter.

Last year was the 1st true winter since the 2002-2005 stretch.

I'm rooting for strong -epo and -ao.

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2010-2011 was a blockbuster Hecs winter but not a prolonged one. Essentially just a 30 day winter.

Last year was the 1st true winter since the 2002-2005 stretch.

I'm rooting for strong -epo and -ao.

the snowcover is def. gonna help the -AO for sure. not sure about a -EPO change right now.....

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I think a lot has to do with the development of the city...in the 1800's most of the outer boroughs were farms and forests...building booms in the 1890's, 1930's and 1970's...Now it's tar mostly and cement...on clear windless nights it doesn't get as cold as it used to because of that...the cities coldest days are windy...since the 1940's the average has been in the 47's...the 1930's had some cold Novembers for a warm decade...

max/min 27/15 on 11/28/30...28/12 on 11/27/32...30/17 11/16/33...18 min 11/18-19/36...29/16 11/26/38...2" snow 11/27/31...8" snow 11/24/38...

Agree, and even in areas that haven't experienced much growth... how much more land is developed upwind of these places, so that the wind trajectory that was once over undeveloped land for maybe hundreds of miles now passes over towns and cities... this may explain the warming of stations that haven't changed much over the years.

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Its unlikely that November temperatures will end up being above normal - as we step down to normal to below normal temps for a good portion of the first half of the month and with increasing snow cover in Canada a trough in the east and ridging out west would also expect the first accumulating snowfall of the season for at least part of the region by months end. Also next weekend looks to be below normal

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014110200/ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_8.png

Also the indicies all might be in a favorable position together to promote a cold weather pattern in the region as we approach mid month

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml

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