Rjay Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Nearly impossible to get such departures with the modifying influence of the Atlantic and airmass modification via the lakes/downsloping. This sounds right and I agree. Need one of our stat guys to post NYC's biggest monthly departures (by month). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Nearly impossible to get such departures with the modifying influence of the Atlantic and airmass modification via the lakes/downsloping. A few upper Midwest stations had their coldest winter on record last year... a -12 degree monthly departure here would be close to a monthly record for cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 A few upper Midwest stations had their coldest winter on record last year... a -12 degree monthly departure here would be close to a monthly record for cold. -7 is doable, -12 is impossible here, especially in winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 NYC is 25.8" on the NWS page. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/nycnormals.htm my stats for KNYC........Oct.....Nov.....Dec.....Jan.....Feb.....Mar.....Apr.....Ave..... 2010-11 to 2013-14......0.6.....1.2.....7.3....15.4.....11.5.....2.1........T......38.1 1870-71 to 2009-10........T......0.8.....5.4......7.5......8.9.....4.9......0.8.....28.3 1980-81 to 2009-10........T......0.3.....4.3......7.1......9.2.....4.0......0.6.....25.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 That's insane. I would bet my 100 bucks that the core of the cold will be centered over the Northeast this year instead of the Midwest like last year. After all, no two winters are exactly the same in terms of synoptic patterns, right? If NYC would have those departures this winter, then it would be certain that we would come close to breaking NYC's all-time record low. We were between -7 and -8 in January 2004, and that was with a really warm first week of the month and a monthly low of 1 degree. Our all time record low is -15. I'd bet none of us see that temperature in the city ever again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 my stats for KNYC........Oct.....Nov.....Dec.....Jan.....Feb.....Mar.....Apr.....Ave..... 2010-11 to 2013-14......0.6.....1.2.....7.3....15.4.....11.5.....2.1........T......38.1 1870-71 to 2009-10........T......0.8.....5.4......7.5......8.9.....4.9......0.8.....28.3 1980-81 to 2009-10........T......0.3.....4.3......7.1......9.2.....4.0......0.6.....25.4 We had 3 crap decadal snowfall averages in a row. The 70s, 80s and 90s all had below average numbers with a couple of big winners mixed in. But they weren't enough to overcome all the dud years. So I'm not surprised to see our average still clearly below the long term average when we are still including the 80s and 90s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 some very cold periods don't show up in monthly records...most cold periods started in one month and ended in another... coldest 30 day periods... since 1917...I don't have the dates on hand...1917-18 was fromlate December to late January...1933-34 was mostly February and two days in January...1917-18 19.01933-34 19.61935-36 20.41947-48 21.51976-77 21.91980-81 22.21919-20 22.42003-04 22.51993-94 23.51944-45 23.81969-70 24.01970-71 24.21934-35 24.31960-61 24.61939-40 24.91967-68 25.11981-82 25.21989-90 25.32006-07 25.81962-63 25.92002-03 25.91978-79 26.01983-84 26.11977-78 26.21999-00 26.21975-76 27.11984-85 27.51955-56 27.61995-96 27.71956-57 27.82008-09 27.91964-65 28.01957-58 28.12010-11 28.1..............................................................................................................................................................................The warmest...season....coldest 30 day ave...1997-98.....37.3.2011-12.....37.0.1948-49.....36.3.1931-32.....35.8.2007-08.....35.7.1952-53.....35.5.2001-02.....35.4.1936-37.....34.9.1990-91.....34.5.1932-33.....33.9.1950-51.....33.0.1974-75.....33.0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 I would piss on a sparkplug some winter seasons for a snowshower easy does it boys.Last year was just fine kept the cabin fever at bay or the blues from singing.see ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 -7 is doable, -12 is impossible here, especially in winter NYC had a Feb. average temp of 19*F in 1934, which is about a 15-degree negative departure from the normal Feb. long-term average of 34*F. Plus, there are other similar cases of double-digit Feb. negative temp departures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 I would piss on a sparkplug some winter seasons for a snowshower easy does it boys.Last year was just fine kept the cabin fever at bay or the blues from singing.see ya if you're still in the tire business it should be another good year...be well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Coast changes to snow on the GFS parallel for November 16-17 storm http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111100/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_26.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111100/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_27.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Coast changes to snow on the GFS parallel for November 16-17 storm http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111100/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_26.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111100/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_27.png Starting to look interesting for interior elevated areas. Should be a fun 5 days of tracking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Starting to look interesting for interior elevated areas. Should be a fun 5 days of tracking OP GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 maybe we should start a thread to track this storm threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 0z GGEM and 0z Navgem has precip in the area for Friday's Event. GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Would be something if we could pull off 2 snows before thanksgiving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 0z GGEM and 0z Navgem has precip in the area for Friday's Event. GGEM GGEM precip maps show rain for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 maybe we should start a thread to track this storm threat? OZ GFS came in with a colder solution and better storm track here for frozen early next week - BUT it looks suspicious - don't like the placement of that LP over Lake Superior........ http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014111100/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_26.png Also when is the last time anyone here has seen this much snowcover in mid November ? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014111100/gfs_asnow_us_29.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 OZ GFS came in with a colder solution and better storm track here for frozen early next week - BUT it looks suspicious - don't like the placement of that LP over Lake Superior........ http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014111100/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_26.png Also when is the last time anyone here has seen this much snowcover in mid November ? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014111100/gfs_asnow_us_29.png Cold begets cold and snow begets cold. We are in for one hell of a ride this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Cold begets cold and snow begets cold. We are in for one hell of a ride this winter. one thing to consider is there will eventually be a relaxation in this pattern before it reloads again - this pattern we are entering would have been better off waiting about 2 - 3 weeks IMO - would have better results for us snow hounds in December then November near the coast......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Couldn't agree more NEG NAO I posted something to that effect earlier. Chances of getting snow are much better in December then November especially for the coast imo!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Today the models look to break down the pattern well before months end which is probably too fast. Models love breaking down patterns quickly but a relaxation after the cold will occur. We've yet to enter the colder air mass regardless so it doesn't make sense to plan so far ahead. Also the chance of snow is still out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Today the models look to break down the pattern well before months end which is probably too fast. Models love breaking down patterns quickly but a relaxation after the cold will occur. We've yet to enter the colder air mass regardless so it doesn't make sense to plan so far ahead. Also the chance of snow is still out there. The CFSV2 Dec temps. The warmth right along the coast looks wrong as the model seems to do that for every 5 day period . As it may be overestimating the Atlantic influence . Even though we may pull back . It`s very hard to expect wire to wire cold. However with a favorable Pacific SST look I think we will just re fire this . ala 03- 04 . That is not a bad look for Dec and would expect that cold to carry all the way to the coast . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 The CFSV2 Dec temps. The warmth right along the coast looks wrong as the model seems to do that for every 5 day period . As it may be overestimating the Atlantic influence . Even though we may pull back . It`s very hard to expect wire to wire cold. However with a favorable Pacific SST look I think we will just re fire this . ala 03- 04 . That is not a bad look for Dec and would expect that cold to carry all the way to the coast . its obvious the model is not handling warmer ocean temps early in the season correctly and their effect on land all up and down the east coast..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 the determining factor for the Miller A event next week will be the exact track of the storm up the east coast. The 0Z models were just far enough off the coast to support a more frozen scenario BUT the 6Z run of the PGFS has shifted to a just inland coast hugger and rain along the coast and more frozen well inland.... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111106/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_25.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 The key with the 144 hour storm will be the strength of the east based -NAO. We really need that ridge to build further west closer to the Davis Strait. Otherwise the SE Ridge will pump enough for the low to take a warmer track for the city and coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 The key with the 144 hour storm will be the strength of the east based -NAO. We really need that ridge to build further west closer to the Davis Strait. Otherwise the SE Ridge will pump enough for the low to take a warmer track for the city and coast. ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_7.png agree 100 % the problem is the models have not been handling the NAO position and strength correctly lately - so have to keep all options on the table for now.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 The key with the 144 hour storm will be the strength of the east based -NAO. We really need that ridge to build further west closer to the Davis Strait. Otherwise the SE Ridge will pump enough for the low to take a warmer track for the city and coast. ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_7.png I wrote last week that you are going to see variance from far away from OP run to OP run , if the Vortex presses you may see suppression .If it retrogrades too much the models will surge the warm air . I think when push comes to shove , the cold is there and an opening on the EC will occur and we will SNOW pre thanksgiving. I am focused on the pattern. The cold is close by the waters off the EC are warm and we have seen several storms already this fall run from OBX TO CC . If we get that I think the cold will win out . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 I wrote last week that you are going to see variance from far away from OP run to OP run , if the Vortex presses you may see suppression .If it retrogrades too much the models will surge the warm air . I think when push comes to shove , the cold is there and an opening on the EC will occur and we will SNOW pre thanksgiving. I am focused on the pattern. The cold is close by the waters off the EC are warm and we have seen several storms already this fall run from OBX TO CC . If we get that I think the cold will win out . The thread the needle scenario that worked with and east based NAO was 11-29-95. That situation didn't have the primary over the lakes like the models are showing for the 144 hr threat. There was an earlier low right ahead of the storm that acted as the 50/50 which allowed the second storm to come out cold. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1995/us1129.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 The thread the needle scenario that worked with and east based NAO was 11-29-95. That situation didn't have the primary over the lakes like the models are showing for the 144 hr threat. There was an earlier low right ahead of the storm that acted as the 50/50 which allowed the second storm to come out cold. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1995/us1129.php here is an additional link detailing that event http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1996/29-Nov-95-500MillibarMaps.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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