ag3 Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 The source I have indicates that Central Park averages 21.5" per season. LMAO. KNYC averages about 28" of snow per year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Its def higher than that lol... Closer to 26-28" range. I would think areas of the north BX avg close to 30" while areas on the south shore average closer to 22-25" This. Northern Manhattan averages about 30" as well. As does Northern Nassau County and NE Queens/Bronx. Upper Bronx is probably closer to 32". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 A great pattern so early in November is great and all but it's slightly concerning cause more then likely this great pattern is going to relax and reload and unfortunately it will probably be in December when It's much easier to pull off a snow storm. Also nobody knows if and when the pattern will switch back to a good one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 KNYC's 30 year average '(81-'10) is 25.3". KEWR: 27.9" KLGA: 26.6" KJFK: 23.3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Yeah probably saved by that one two part system that really ripped across the LHV. Also had that one system where everyone was really worried about freezing rain. Was a solid front end dump before most flipped to sleet. LHV stayed mostly snow. You really have four major zones for snowfall. 1) The strip that runs from LGA through the south shore of LI. 2) The strip that runs from Philly through CNJ, the city and the north shore of LI. 3) Areas just NW of the major cities that run to the foot of the mountains in NW NJ and up into the LHV 4) Areas west of KSWF including the Poconos and Sullivan County where the real elevation begins LGA average several inches more then the south shore of LI, which is obvious since it's further north and has less of an ocean influence. JFK to south shore of LI is a zone. Especially in a 30 year cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 A great pattern so early in November is great and all but it's slightly concerning cause more then likely this great pattern is going to relax and reload and unfortunately it will probably be in December when It's much easier to pull off a snow storm. Also nobody knows if and when the pattern will switch back to a good one... I doubt that will happen. December consists of the lowest sun angle and this is why the cold usually relaxes early January as the sun angle starts to strengthen and days start getting a bit longer. I think we are looking at one of the best winters we have ever experienced. That cold air is only going to build it will not relax until about January 15th or so. So yeah I'd have to respectfully disagree. I just hope we don't get cold and dry and than rainy and warm, only to flip back to cold and dry. The thing about this winter I think will consist of many paste snow events ending as some light rain or drizzle and one or two KU's since the blocking will help slow down events and build up bigger by phasing both jet streams. I'm telling you in my opinion this winter will be historic! Climate change is not just warming, it is about how eeather will be extreme, e.g when it's hot it'll be darn hot, cold will be record cold. Snowy very snowy and windy we'll u get the point very windy. This is why I think we may get a nor'easter that could approach 960 millibars that would be awesome. Have a great day... Happy Veterans Day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 LGA average several inches more then the south shore of LI. Especially in a 30 year cycle. I'm not sure that averages are completely representative considering the fact that one big deformation band can greatly increase totals in one location with much lesser amounts nearbye thanks to subsidence. This is particularly true for the south shore of Long Island where most of the higher end seasons are dominated by favorable tracks of coastal systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 A great pattern so early in November is great and all but it's slightly concerning cause more then likely this great pattern is going to relax and reload and unfortunately it will probably be in December when It's much easier to pull off a snow storm. Also nobody knows if and when the pattern will switch back to a good one... Its likely going to break down somewhere around December 1-5 if I had to guess...the GFS has been trying to break the pattern down beyond Day 12 now for about 5 days and it keeps getting pushed back, eventually though it will likely be right but given how favorable everything is by the 2nd half of December we'd likely revert right back to a favorable pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 KNYC's 30 year average '(81-'10) is 25.3". KEWR: 27.9" KLGA: 26.6" KJFK: 23.3" I would think Central Park averages around 26-28 inches. Pretty sure it's 26. Something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 KNYC's 30 year average '(81-'10) is 25.3". KEWR: 27.9" KLGA: 26.6" KJFK: 23.3" This method is excluding the great 2010-2011 winter, the above average 2012-2013 winter and the historic 2013-2014 winter. I'll add up 1983/84 to 2013/2014 when I have time tomorrow. Unless someone does it before me. I'm betting it's about 27"-28", when including the bad 2011-2012 winter as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 I think some stats are a yearly snowfall and some are a winter seasonal snowfall. Some winter seasonal snowfalls do not include November or March/April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 The 12z Euro Ensembles still like the 21-23 period for a storm. The PV is elongating, we split flow, and STJ disturbance. But we are moderating and there be too much phasing to our west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/monthseasonsnowfall.html Since 2000, 40"+ seasons have been the new normal, but if you take the previous 25 years, you can count them on one hand. Clearly we have seen a large increase in season snowfall which has led to the overall mean being skewed in a positive direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 The 12z Euro Ensembles still like the 21-23 period for a storm. The PV is elongating, we split flow, and STJ disturbance. But we are moderating and there be too much phasing to our west. The tendency in November is for inland runners to want to happen, even when all the indices are right...after about the 20th-22nd it seems the odds really start going up for coastal tracks...even in 1995 with a -NAO all month we continually got systems that were too far west for the coast, even the one on the 29th was a product more of perfect timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 The 12z Euro Ensembles still like the 21-23 period for a storm. The PV is elongating, we split flow, and STJ disturbance. But we are moderating and there be too much phasing to our west. The window is closer to day 10. You're never going to find a much better setup anytime of the year than the day 10 Euro op. It's just one run though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 This method is excluding the great 2010-2011 winter, the above average 2012-2013 winter and the historic 2013-2014 winter. I'll add up 1983/84 to 2013/2014 when I have time tomorrow. Unless someone does it before me. I'm betting it's about 27"-28", when including the bad 2011-2012 winter as well. 1984-2013 Averages: KEWR: 28.7" (+0.8") KLGA: 26.6" (+0.0") KNYC: 26.1" (+0.8") KJFK: 23.0" (-0.3") I honestly didn't expect JFK to see a decrease, and for LGA to remain the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYY_2 Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 1984-2013 Averages: KEWR: 28.7" (+0.8") KLGA: 26.6" (+0.0") KNYC: 26.1" (+0.8) KJFK: 23.0" (-0.3") I honestly didn't expect JFK to see a decrease, and for LGA to remain the same. I would assume it due to the proximity to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 I would assume it due to the proximity to the coast They moved the airport? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Last year was one of the best winters ever for NYC and the area. I hope this year follows it exactly. I can't believe some comments I'm reading. Not sure what he or anyone else is talking about. You can not get any better then last year, unless you are talking about a 1995-1996 type winter. Was it? With the exception of one storm that couldn't even generate a foot of snow in the city, all we really had were a bunch of nuisance storms and a moderate storm here and there. Sure it wasn't 2001-2002, 2006-2007, or even 2012-2013, but it really wasn't that amazing of a winter snowstorm wise. I would argue that 2010-2011 was better in terms of storminess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Was it? With the exception of one storm that couldn't even generate a foot of snow in the city, all we really had were a bunch of nuisance storms and a moderate storm here and there. Sure it wasn't 2001-2002, 2006-2007, or even 2012-2013, but it really wasn't that amazing of a winter snowstorm wise. I would argue that 2010-2011 was better in terms of storminess. Pretty sure knyc had a storm over a foot last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYY_2 Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 They moved the airport?JFK mixes more often than LGA and it's possible that in recent history JFK hasn't fared as well as LGA. Maybe I'm not understanding the question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Was it? With the exception of one storm that couldn't even generate a foot of snow in the city, all we really had were a bunch of nuisance storms and a moderate storm here and there. Sure it wasn't 2001-2002, 2006-2007, or even 2012-2013, but it really wasn't that amazing of a winter snowstorm wise. I would argue that 2010-2011 was better in terms of storminess. There have been winters with more snow but the combo of snow, cold and snowcover is why many think it was exceptional... also we had three snow events with temps near 10 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 NYC is 25.8" on the NWS page. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/nycnormals.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Was it? With the exception of one storm that couldn't even generate a foot of snow in the city, all we really had were a bunch of nuisance storms and a moderate storm here and there. Sure it wasn't 2001-2002, 2006-2007, or even 2012-2013, but it really wasn't that amazing of a winter snowstorm wise. I would argue that 2010-2011 was better in terms of storminess. It was a top 10 all time winter no matter what metric you use. I wouldn't argue that 2010-2011 wasn't better. That's a personal preference. It was a short winter but as we know it had 2-3 Hecs storms. Both last year, 2010-2011 and 2009-2010 were historic winters in NYC. All 3 in the top 10, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 It was a top 10 all time winter no matter what metric you use. I wouldn't argue that 2010-2011 wasn't better. That's a personal preference. It was a short winter but as we know it had 2-3 Hecs storms. Both last year, 2010-2011 and 2009-2010 were historic winters in NYC. All 3 in the top 10, IMO. The only type of snow extreme that has been missing since 95-96 is a great late season blizzard like 4-6-82. That's still near the top of my list of favorite snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Found this interesting from a stand point of how cold the upper midwest was last winter msp dec -7.3 jan -7.6 feb -12.3 mar -7.3 wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Found this interesting from a stand point of how cold the upper midwest was last winter msp dec -7.3 jan -7.6 feb -12.3 mar -7.3 wow That's insane. I would bet my 100 bucks that the core of the cold will be centered over the Northeast this year instead of the Midwest like last year. After all, no two winters are exactly the same in terms of synoptic patterns, right? If NYC would have those departures this winter, then it would be certain that we would come close to breaking NYC's all-time record low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 That's insane. I would bet my 100 bucks that the core of the cold will be centered over the Northeast this year instead of the Midwest like last year. After all, no two winters are exactly the same in terms of synoptic patterns, right? If NYC would have those departures this winter, then it would be certain that we would come close to breaking NYC's all-time record low. I guess we will see how it plays out….with the pv around anything is possible... Those depurates at MSP last winter are amazing, plus that is one of the coldest spots in the nation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 That's insane. I would bet my 100 bucks that the core of the cold will be centered over the Northeast this year instead of the Midwest like last year. After all, no two winters are exactly the same in terms of synoptic patterns, right? If NYC would have those departures this winter, then it would be certain that we would come close to breaking NYC's all-time record low. Nearly impossible to get such departures with the modifying influence of the Atlantic and airmass modification via the lakes/downsloping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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