SnoSki14 Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Confidence is increasing for at least a good ole storm late next weekend into early next week. Looks like a strong cutter with a possible front end dump well north and west of the city before flipping to heavy rain. Good blocking over Greenland doesn't really develop until after this storm passes, so we'll likely have to wait and see what happens behind it as the ridge reloads and the core of the PV gets sucked back up towards Hudson Bay. It's not really a cutter and certainly wouldn't be a strong one given the strength of the low and the weak WAA ahead of it. Looks more like an arctic like front that gets gulf moisture enhancement. Also gfs placing more emphasis on a low developing offshore which could make things a lot more interesting for some if that trend continues. I'll certainly keep an eye on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 GGEM has some light snow for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 It's not really a cutter and certainly wouldn't be a strong one given the strength of the low and the weak WAA ahead of it. Looks more like an arctic like front that gets gulf moisture enhancement. Also gfs placing more emphasis on a low developing offshore which could make things a lot more interesting for some if that trend continues. I'll certainly keep an eye on it. Not a strong cutter? The 12z GFS parallel version is sub 990mb next Monday near Lake Huron. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 GGEM has some light snow for Friday. Not quite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Not a strong cutter? The 12z GFS parallel version is sub 990mb next Monday near Lake Huron. What exactly is the gfs parallel version and how valid is it really.Regardless of what happens it brings down real cold behind it and probably even below climo for January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 The Euro ensembles looks interesting for the weekend of the 22- 23. I would not mind if the storm early next week ran to the lakes and dragged the cold front to the coast just in time to see some piece come around the backside and run the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 One of these storms will go boom. We. Have to remember its nov 10 th. I know were all antsy already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 What exactly is the gfs parallel version and how valid is it really. The GFS parallel version is an upgraded version of the GFS which will eventually replace the current operational version. So while we don't have much in the way of verification scores to currently observe, it should certainly be taken seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 The GFS parallel version is an upgraded version of the GFS which will eventually replace the current operational version. So while we don't have much in the way of verification scores to currently observe, it should certainly be taken seriously. I believe it's the PRHW14 to the right. If that's the case, then it has slightly better skill scores that the OP GFS but still behind the Euro and UKMET. It may be going operational on December 17th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 The Euro ensembles looks interesting for the weekend of the 22- 23. I would not mind if the storm early next week ran to the lakes and dragged the cold front to the coast just in time to see some piece come around the backside and run the EC. Yeah, the 12Z OP moves those festivities up to the 20th with a nice banana high/CAD sig to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Yeah, the 12 OP moves those festivities up to the 20 th with a nice banana high to the north. yeh check out the day 10 op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 This is starting to look like last year where the next blockbuster system was always 8-10 days away. How could you not love the look on the Euro though? Phased southern system redeveloping. WAA followed by coastal. At least it keeps the interest level up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 The disturbance that the euro picked up on was actually present to some degree on the 12 model suite (save for UKMET which I didn't see/not sure if it goes out that far) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 yeh check out the day 10 op lol That's probably the best Euro OP day 10 solution ever for November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 That's probably the best Euro OP day 10 solution ever for November. Right . Would crush Thanksgiving travel plans from the Panhandle on East . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 10, 2014 Author Share Posted November 10, 2014 Right . Would crush Thanksgiving travel plans from the Panhandle on East . Thanksgiving is not until the 27th lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Thanksgiving is not until the 27th lol Right so the weekend before ( if 1 crazy run like that was remotely true ) and you drop 1 to 2 feet of snow from the Panhandle to the east coast, no effect ? lol silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 10, 2014 Author Share Posted November 10, 2014 Right so the weekend before ( if 1 crazy run like that was remotely true ) and you drop 1 to 2 feet of snow from the Panhandle to the east coast, no effect ? lol silly. I certainly didn't say there would be no effect. Your post made it seem like you were implying that Thanksgiving was around the 20th (which it usually is), that is at least how I took it. Plus the biggest travel day of the year is usually the day before Thanksgiving at least for flying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 I certainly didn't say there would be no effect. Your post made it seem like you were implying that Thanksgiving was around the 20th (which it usually is), that is at least how I took it. Ok fair . Was only taking it from an air travel point of view the weekend before , if something that wide spread took place . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 This is starting to look like last year where the next blockbuster system was always 8-10 days away. How could you not love the look on the Euro though? Phased southern system redeveloping. WAA followed by coastal. At least it keeps the interest level up. Does have that feel a bit. I'll tell you what, if its cold and 2 or 3 weeks from now we have nothing but rain and day 10 phantom bombs to show for it, people are going to get ansty. I dont care what time of year it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 The Euro ensembles looks interesting for the weekend of the 22- 23. I would not mind if the storm early next week ran to the lakes and dragged the cold front to the coast just in time to see some piece come around the backside and run the EC. Agreed but i want to see what happens with the monday storm next weekend before even taking what models show at D 10+ seriously. i know you are just bringing it up because it would be a storm that has the best antedecent setup, just need the confluence up north to give this a chance IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 10, 2014 Author Share Posted November 10, 2014 Ok fair . Was only taking it from an air travel point of view the weekend before , if something that wide spread took place . See my edited previous post pertaining to air travel. But without a doubt a large winter storm would throw a wrench into travel plans going into that week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Does have that feel a bit. I'll tell you what, if its cold and 2 or 3 weeks from now we have nothing but rain and day 10 phantom bombs to show for it, people are going to get ansty. I dont care what time of year it is. Starting to feel that way quick. Worse thing for sensible people like me is seeing the first real arctic outbreak of the season happen and see weenies not even into the middle of november wanting snow already. Ill take cold, rain, cold, rain to get something hopefully by december worth noting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 I certainly didn't say there would be no effect. Your post made it seem like you were implying that Thanksgiving was around the 20th (which it usually is), that is at least how I took it. Plus the biggest travel day of the year is usually the day before Thanksgiving at least for flying. Not to drag this out any further, but the earliest thanksgiving can be is the 22nd. Its not "usually" any specific date but rotates between the 22-28th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Weather channel website has very cold temperatures for Monday and Tuesday next week with chance for snow showers. What are the chances we see snow on Tuesday based on current model run? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Does have that feel a bit. I'll tell you what, if its cold and 2 or 3 weeks from now we have nothing but rain and day 10 phantom bombs to show for it, people are going to get ansty. I dont care what time of year it is. Ah the weenie nightmare. Nothing scares weenies more then cold to rain to cold. Even constant mild weather would be better to them than that. If the pattern is right then it will eventually produce and things are already lining up better than anyone expected a couple weeks ago when November was supposed to "torch". I really hope we get some strongly negative NAO style blocking though as that essentially guarantees we won't see any cutters and often times is the precursor to a major snow event. Right now it looks like a neutral NAO will be the rule so it's very uncertain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Does have that feel a bit. I'll tell you what, if its cold and 2 or 3 weeks from now we have nothing but rain and day 10 phantom bombs to show for it, people are going to get ansty. I dont care what time of year it is. Last year was one of the best winters ever for NYC and the area. I hope this year follows it exactly. I can't believe some comments I'm reading. Not sure what he or anyone else is talking about. You can not get any better then last year, unless you are talking about a 1995-1996 type winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 There's a difference between tracking a storm in the the day 8-10 range when a pattern doesn't support it compared to when it does. I'm not saying today's EURO fantasy storm is going to happen, but the GFS/EURO have been showing a split flow developing for this time frame. With that we could also have a potential 50/50 in place, so a long ways to go, but the pattern would be better for this time frame IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Last year was one of the best winters ever for NYC and the area. I hope this year follows it exactly. I can't believe some comments I'm reading. Not sure what he or anyone else is talking about. You can not get any better then last year, unless you are talking about a 1995-1996 type winter. I would place 2002-03 above last winter. Last winter was great in regards to cold and snowpack retention but overall snowfall for the NW burbs it was no different than 09-10 or 04-05. As much as some of you do not include the NW areas part of the NYC area it very much is. Just like areas of Suffolk cty & Central NJ are included.. IMBY 2004-05 : 74" 2009-10 : 76" 2013-14 : 75" 2002-03 : 93" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Last year was one of the best winters ever for NYC and the area. I hope this year follows it exactly. I can't believe some comments I'm reading. Not sure what he or anyone else is talking about. You can not get any better then last year, unless you are talking about a 1995-1996 type winter Last Winter lacked a high end KU event that would have put the cherry on top. Want to call me greedy? So be it. It was a great Winter for the coast so given your location I'm not at all surprised. I can't help but wonder if you would have the same feelings if the axis was shifted 75 miles NW. Some people would rather get 10 5" events and others would rather have 2 25" events. Same result, just different preferences. Without digging that much, it would appear that last year was much closer to average the further away from the coast that you got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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