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November 2014

Rtd208

By Rtd208,
in New York City Metro

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

The first 8 days of November 1976 average about 45.2 degrees. So far we are averaging 50.1 degrees. A difference of 4.7 degrees. Its still very early in the game. The month of November 1976 average 41.7 degrees.

 

I think with the November temperature rise at NYC since the late 1800's that we would need a major volcanic

assist to have another November reading that cold here.

 

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Doorman

Doorman

Posted
Posted

Snow?

Upton .....

 

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

MAIN STORY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT

WITH AO BECOMING STRONGLY NEGATIVE OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS ALLOWING

ARCTIC AIR TO SEEP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NE 2/3RD OF THE US BY THE

END OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN TEMPS DOWN TO 2 STANDARD

DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A PIECE OF PAC ENERGY THEN GRADUALLY PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN

STREAM ON TUE AND THEN INTENSIFIES A CLOSED LOW NORTHEAST THROUGH

SOUTHERN QUEBEC ONTARIO WED/THU. THE RESULTANT SURFACE LOW WILL

TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK...WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE

REGION WED. JUST SOME DRIZZLE OR ISOLATED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS

FRONT TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...BUT MAIN STORY WILL BE THE

AFOREMENTIONED BEGINNING OF A PROLONGED PERIOD OF CAA IN THE WAKE

OF THIS FRONT AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS IN SE CANADA AND ARCTIC

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SE FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL US.

FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE FOR LATE WEEK PERIOD...AS A PIECE OF

SUBTROPICAL ENERGY FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC MIGRATES NE THROUGH

THE GULF STATES EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHERN LOW

DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SE SINKING ARCTIC FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK.

UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST AND FAR NORTH THIS

FEATURE TRACKS...WHICH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON AMPLIFICATION OF A

NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND UPSTREAM BLOCKING. NO CLEAR SIGNAL

WITH THE NAO. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS DUE TO LOW

POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL STORM...WITH THERMAL PROFILES CONDITIONALLY

SUPPORTING SNOW. IF THIS SYSTEM STAYS WELL SE OF THE REGION...JUST

SOME SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONTAL

PASSAGE.

IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY...UNSEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY DRY

CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPS EXPECTED TO RUN GENERALLY 10 TO

15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THU THROUGH SUN.

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

 

 

 

http://204.2.104.196/gfs/WINTER_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_120HR.gif

 

 

 

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=5&fcolor=wbg

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted

First and last freeze dates in Central Park...
season....first.freeze....last.freeze..
1876-77.......10/15.......4/08
1877-78.......11/07.......3/26
1878-79.......11/05.......4/06
1879-80.......10/25.......4/12

1880-81.......11/18.......4/07
1881-82.......11/22.......4/12
1882-83.......11/03.......4/03
1883-84.......11/12.......4/06
1884-85.......11/19.......4/14
1885-86.......11/01.......4/04
1886-87.......11/07.......4/19
1887-88.......10/30.......4/25
1888-89.......11/17.......3/31
1889-90.......10/24.......4/19

1890-91.......11/21.......5/06
1891-92.......11/04.......4/25
1892-93.......11/11.......3/30
1893-94.......11/15.......4/09
1894-95.......11/07.......4/05
1895-96.......11/12.......4/08
1896-97.......11/23.......4/20
1897-98.......11/18.......4/07
1898-99.......11/24.......4/06
1899-00.......11/12.......4/11

1900-01.......11/15.......3/31
1901-02.......11/10.......3/20
1902-03.......12/05.......4/05
1903-04.......11/07.......4/20
1904-05.......10/31.......3/15
1905-06.......11/14.......4/01
1906-07.......11/29.......4/03
1907-08.......12/03.......4/05
1908-09.......11/04.......4/11
1909-10.......11/30.......3/18

1910-11.......11/20.......4/03
1911-12.......11/03.......4/04
1912-13.......11/03.......3/28
1913-14.......11/11.......4/13
1914-15.......11/10.......4/04
1915-16.......11/18.......4/09
1916-17.......11/15.......4/10
1917-18.......10/31.......4/12
1918-19.......11/24.......4/26
1919-20.......11/14.......4/11

1920-21.......11/12.......4/11
1921-22.......11/06.......4/21
1922-23.......11/21.......4/14
1923-24.......11/09.......4/03
1924-25.......11/16.......4/21
1925-26.......10/29.......4/20
1926-27.......11/04.......3/28
1927-28.......11/07.......4/16
1928-29.......10/30.......3/18
1929-30.......11/22.......4/24

1930-31.......11/05.......3/14
1931-32.......11/07.......4/13
1932-33.......11/20.......3/25
1933-34.......10/26.......3/29
1934-35.......11/14.......4/16
1935-36.......11/23.......4/08
1936-37.......10/26.......3/31
1937-38.......11/21.......4/07
1938-39.......11/24.......4/13
1939-40.......11/13.......4/15

1940-41.......10/19.......3/31
1941-42.......11/25.......2/28
1942-43.......11/13.......4/16
1943-44.......11/15.......4/06
1944-45.......11/23.......3/11
1945-46.......11/21.......3/12
1946-47.......11/23.......3/31
1947-48.......11/19.......4/04
1948-49.......12/11.......3/20
1949-50.......11/22.......4/14

1950-51.......11/16.......3/27
1951-52.......11/03.......3/17
1952-53.......11/29.......3/11
1953-54.......11/06.......4/04
1954-55.......11/10.......3/29
1955-56.......11/19.......3/28
1956-57.......11/10.......3/25
1957-58.......11/11.......4/09
1958-59.......11/28.......3/29
1959-60.......11/17.......3/27

1960-61.......11/07.......3/21
1961-62.......11/10.......3/09
1962-63.......11/07.......3/23
1963-64.......12/01.......4/05
1964-65.......11/21.......4/01
1965-66.......10/29.......3/29
1966-67.......11/04.......4/12
1967-68.......11/08.......4/06
1968-69.......11/21.......4/01
1969-70.......10/23.......4/11

1970-71.......11/23.......3/27
1971-72.......11/08.......4/09
1972-73.......10/20.......3/21
1973-74.......11/10.......4/10
1974-75.......10/19.......4/10
1975-76.......10/31.......4/12
1976-77.......10/27.......4/10
1977-78.......11/14.......4/03
1978-79.......11/25.......4/08
1979-80.......11/30.......4/17

1980-81.......11/16.......3/21
1981-82.......11/25.......4/08
1982-83.......11/13.......3/30
1983-84.......11/13.......3/18
1984-85.......11/19.......4/10
1985-86.......12/02.......3/22
1986-87.......11/13.......4/01
1987-88.......11/11.......3/23
1988-89.......10/31.......3/22
1989-90.......11/18.......3/28

1990-91.......11/09.......4/13
1991-92.......11/26.......4/13
1992-93.......11/08.......3/20
1993-94.......11/21.......3/19
1994-95.......11/23.......4/06
1995-96.......11/09.......3/29
1996-97.......11/12.......4/10
1997-98.......11/13.......3/23
1998-99.......12/22.......3/16
1999-00.......11/30.......4/09

2000-01.......11/20.......3/28
2001-02.......12/16.......4/07
2002-03.......11/27.......4/08
2003-04.......11/09.......4/06
2004-05.......11/09.......3/16
2005-06.......11/18.......3/22
2006-07.......12/04.......4/09
2007-08.......11/11.......3/30
2008-09.......11/18.......3/24
2009-10.......12/07.......3/27

2010-11.......12/04.......3/29
2011-12.......12/10.......3/27
2012-13.......11/06.......3/23

2013-14.......11/12.......4/16


NYC's latest 1st 32 day since 1876...
1998...12/22
2001...12/16
1948...12/11
2011...12/10
2009...12/07
1902...12/05
2010...12/04
2006...12/04
1907...12/03
1985...12/02
1963...12/01

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted

GFS is really cold in the long range. Looks like December instead of November.

Also has it snowing here at 114 -120 hours

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=11&model_dd=09&model_init_hh=12&fhour=120&parameter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

and snowing again at 180 - 192 hours

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=11&model_dd=09&model_init_hh=12&fhour=192&parameter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KNYC

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

The second low behind it forms and is colder.

 

I guess we have to watch for the Euro potentially holding back too much energy over the SW. A faster ejection

could lead to an earlier phase and warmer low track closer to the area. But it's still to far out in time to guess

how this will verify.

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TauntonBlizzard2013

TauntonBlizzard2013

Posted
Posted

These threats are ones we see a month from now but not this year. The pattern will be like December and I would be shocked if we don't see snow at some point this month.

Its still so hard though. I mean it still takes almost a perfect setup, which is why the events seem to always be a week + away. As we get closer it just doesn't materialize.

Its still more likely to be rain than snowb

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SnoSki14

SnoSki14

Posted
Posted

Its still so hard though. I mean it still takes almost a perfect setup, which is why the events seem to always be a week + away. As we get closer it just doesn't materialize.

Its still more likely to be rain than snowb

A perfect setup is required nearly all winter though. Most winter systems are more likely to be rain versus snow.

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted

4" of snow in November usually means less snow in December...Just in case we do get 4" of snowfall this month the record shows six of the seven Decembers had less snowfall...

year...Nov...Dec...Season

1882...14.0".....T.....44.0"

1892.....6.3"...3.0"..49.7"

1896.....5.0".13.0"..43.6"

1898...19.0"...1.5"..55.9"

1938...12.8"...1.7"..37.3"

1989.....4.7"...1.4"..13.4"

2012.....4.7"...0.4"..26.1"

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Stormlover74

Stormlover74

Posted
Posted

4" of snow in November usually means less snow in December...Just in case we do get 4" of snowfall this month the record shows six of the seven Decembers had less snowfall...

year...Nov...Dec...Season

1882...14.0".....T.....44.0"

1892.....6.3"...3.0"..49.7"

1896.....5.0".13.0"..43.6"

1898...19.0"...1.5"..55.9"

1938...12.8"...1.7"..37.3"

1989.....4.7"...1.4"..13.4"

2012.....4.7"...0.4"..26.1"

89-90 was the only dud in there at least

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted

89-90 was the only dud in there at least

it was a very unusual winter...I think it was Joe Sobal from accuwx that said a big pattern change coming in January...December 1945 had 3.7" in late November and 15.6" in December...1995 had 2.9" in November and 11" in December...I can't think of many el nino years with a snowy November...maybe none?...

Biggest snowfalls...

10.0" 11/26-27/1898

9.5" 11/29/30/1882 est...

8.8" 11/24-25/1938

6.0" 11/30/1898

5.0" 11/29-30/1896

4.7" 11/07-08/2012

4.7" 11/22-23/1989

4.0" 11/29-30/1892

4.0" 11/26-27/1938

3.7" 11/26/1882 est...

3.7" 11/29-30/1945

3.0" 11/30/1967

2.9" 11/30/1995

..............................................

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Heisy

Heisy

Posted
Posted

This has all the signs of a major east coast storm around days 7 to 10 - going to take the models a few more days to figure this out

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014111000/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.png

 

Pattern really only supports a rain storm for most with this one. The ULL is set up shop in North-Central U.S. With no 50/50 or confluence this storm has no choice but to track inland (aka the high shoots out into the Atlantic) or at least start out with warm air out ahead of it. However, looking at the OP & Ensembles of the GFS/EURO I LOOOOOOVE the 11/20-26th period. By this point the PV will be located farther East. This would serve as a 50/50 holding the HP over the Lakes. The models are also showing a split flow developing with the STJ getting its act together. 

 

We're 10 days+ away from this period, but if things hold, this time-table is my call for the first true shot of a snowstorm. 

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SnoSki14

SnoSki14

Posted
Posted

This has all the signs of a major east coast storm around days 7 to 10 - going to take the models a few more days to figure this out

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014111000/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.png

It looks like a reinforcing arctic front actually considering the absurd amount of cold air coming in after it. Could see a rain to snow though as temps plummet behind it but no accumulations.

Cold air really locks in but a lot will depend on the NAO and recently it's been trending more towards the negative side which is good for a snow threat.

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

The very warm departures the next few days with temps rising into the 60's will

boost the -0.8 departure at Central Park to back above above normal

by Wednesday. But the colder readings later this week into next

will drop the departures back into negative territory.

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IsentropicLift

IsentropicLift

Posted
Posted

Confidence is increasing for at least a good ole storm late next weekend into early next week. Looks like a strong cutter with a possible front end dump well north and west of the city before flipping to heavy rain. Good blocking over Greenland doesn't really develop until after this storm passes, so we'll likely have to wait and see what happens behind it as the ridge reloads and the core of the PV gets sucked back up towards Hudson Bay.

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