Rjay Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 This is a place to discuss weather Yup but how is discussing a fantasy storm at 240 hrs discussing weather?? It's totally different if the discussion is about the pattern though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Can't rule out the possibility of thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon with the extremely impressive mid-level lapse rates. With cold temps aloft, sleet or even a snow mix is possible well NW of the city, with graupel possible elsewhere. 8.gif The 0z NAM also has TTs in 50s and steep low-level lapse rates tomorrow afternoon. This worked out pretty well! Reports of graupel and sleet near-by with convective gusty showers (not sure if thunder occurred), and snow in NE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 This worked out pretty well! Reports of graupel and sleet near-by with convective gusty showers (not sure if thunder occurred), and snow in NE PA. No lightning strikes detected yet: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Raining here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Raining here Shocked you havent posted in the snowfall prediction thread yet with EPIC snowfall totals rivaling 95'-96' yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Everythings still just a bit too early even with well below average temps for real snow threats. If the cold pattern continues then I'm thinking last week of this month would be more favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 How's the euro looking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 How's the euro looking With regards to? If you're asking about the day 6-7 event, it does not have it this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 With regards to? If you're asking about the day 6-7 event, it does not have it this run. Indeed.. Still looks like a powder keg pattern post day 7. We'll see how things pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 The EURO looks very interesting at the end of the run, looks like something brewing down south about to ride up to the east coast. Longs ways out, but that is the real potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 First flakes / traces are likely to happen in this upcoming pattern; I agree with that. But in order to achieve accumulations, all the proverbial ducks need to be aligned perfectly. A conducive regime in December, January or February might produce a SECS, while that same pattern in November may not produce for various reasons. November of 1976 was one of the coldest Novembers on record for this area -- mean temp of 39.5F in New Brunswick -- yet only a trace of snow total. So having a major arctic outbreak certainly won't guarantee anything. We need favorable timing, strong blocking, antecedent sfc high pressure / cold air mass, and probably a Miller A low. The two most recent snowy Novembers -- 1995's late November event and 2012's early November event -- were both Miller A / southern origin surface lows. Northern stream Miller B's generally won't perform as well at this time of year due to the ML jet being too far north, and precip-type issues that arise for coastal areas during energy transfers (the warmer SST's play a role in this as well). Point being, the potential is there, but much needs to be accomplished in order to realize that potential in November. However, I'd say first flakes / trace are a virtual lock in the next couple weeks. good post...we'll probably see a few flakes and there are some in the Poconos as I type...If KNYC gets below 32 it's significant and the 20's would be near record cold for mid month... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 I like how we can pull off these mid-level lapse rates in November but can't buy anything even close during most potential severe events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 The EURO looks very interesting at the end of the run, looks like something brewing down south about to ride up to the east coast. Longs ways out, but that is the real potential. Where have I hard this before? Sounds like last winter with the great pattern that never occurred. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 This worked out pretty well! Reports of graupel and sleet near-by with convective gusty showers (not sure if thunder occurred), and snow in NE PA. Flakes mixing in here above 900'... Current temp of 39.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Where have I hard this before? Sounds like last winter with the great pattern that never occurred. I don't know about you, but here in west chester pa, we had one hell of a winter. So yes, last winter pattern rocked for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 I don't know about you, but here in west chester pa, we had one hell of a winter. So yes, last winter pattern rocked for me. Yeah i was going to say the same thing ..Last winter was pretty much rocking where I am located... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Yeah i was going to say the same thing ..Last winter was pretty much rocking where I am located... Last year was a top 5 all time winter for the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Last year was a top 5 all time winter for the NYC area. Yeah and the funny part is that we basically got nickled and dimed to death. Imagine if we had received just one 18"+ event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Squally shower changed almost entirely to grauple here a few minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Yeah and the funny part is that we basically got nickled and dimed to death. Imagine if we had received just one 18"+ event. No we didn't. We had 6 events of 4" or greater. 3 events 8" or greater and 2 events of 12" or greater. NYC: Dec. 14: 5" Jan. 2-3: 6" Jan. 21: 12" Feb. 3: 8" Feb. 4: 4" Feb. 13-14: 12.5" If that's considered "nickle and dime" then I'll take it every year for the rest of my life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 With a euro like depiction. Its highly unlikely we dont see some form of winter weather at some point this month. Thats if the pattern plays out similar to the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 No we didn't. We had 6 events of 4" or greater. 3 events 8" or greater and 2 events of 12" or greater. NYC: Dec. 14: 5" Jan. 2-3: 6" Jan. 21: 12" Feb. 3: 8" Feb. 4: 4" Feb. 13-14: 12.5" If that's considered "nickle and dime" then I'll take it every year for the rest of my life. Not to mention that most of these events had snow falling in the teens (and even single digits) and the snow pack lasted for 2+ months. Even in the NYC boroughs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 No we didn't. We had 6 events of 4" or greater. 3 events 8" or greater and 2 events of 12" or greater. NYC: Dec. 14: 5" Jan. 2-3: 6" Jan. 21: 12" Feb. 3: 8" Feb. 4: 4" Feb. 13-14: 12.5" If that's considered "nickle and dime" then I'll take it every year for the rest of my life. Well said. We snowed in the single digits twice and we snowed on a S wind last year. Over 70 in colts neck last year . Great winter , Great winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 No we didn't. We had 6 events of 4" or greater. 3 events 8" or greater and 2 events of 12" or greater. NYC: Dec. 14: 5" Jan. 2-3: 6" Jan. 21: 12" Feb. 3: 8" Feb. 4: 4" Feb. 13-14: 12.5" If that's considered "nickle and dime" then I'll take it every year for the rest of my life. It's nickled and dimed to me. And up here we only had one event > 12". Most of our snowier winters have had at least one > 18" event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 It's nickled and dimed to me. And up here we only had one event > 12". Then you have unrealistic expectations. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 At least early to mid next week will be mild again, could see readings in the mid to upper 60s ahead of the front. Current forecasts show highs in the mid 40s a week from now with lows near freezing to around 30F. So essentially it will be more typical of early to mid December. It's nothing earth shattering around here in terms of cold but the overall pattern holds promise as we get deeper into the month. Anything that locks in is always a plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Then you have unrealistic expectations. Sorry. HECS, BECS or nothing Ag3. I had a good bit of snow as well and through the seasonal snowfall totals and the bitter cold it was certainly a GREAT WINTER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Deadliest catch TodaySE wind 45 kt increasing to 70 kt by late morning. Bering side...seas 20 ft building to 28 ft in the afternoon. Pacific side...seas 24 ft building to 35 ft in the afternoon. Rain. TonightSW wind 70 kt. Seas 45 ft. Rain showers. SatSW wind 55 kt. Seas 39 ft bering side...41 ft pacific side. Rain showers. Sat NightW wind 60 kt. Seas 40 ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 The EPO is going to go away for a little while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.I.Pete Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Graupel here in Upton. Bouncing off my windows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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