TeleConnectSnow Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 dear Lord the 00z NAVGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 The 0z NAM also has TTs in 50s and steep low-level lapse rates tomorrow afternoon. Wow, that's really impressive. And I'm glad to see you looked at my models! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Can't complain about this look from the OP GFS for an early-season snowfall event. Huge ridge out west which is essentially oriented due north-to-south, and high heights in pretty much all Arctic latitudes. http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/dougsimo/NHEM500mbanom00180.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Dsnow, talk about an over-running and big time snow event according to the NAVGEM. to be its the NAVGEM lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 EURO was close to going BOOM. Long Island gets it pretty good for this time of year. Still a great run. SNOWMAP to come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 00z EURO SNOWMAP: This thing is close to bombing out closer to the coast instead of further off the new england coast. Still a GREAT run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 00z EURO SNOWMAP: This thing is close to bombing out closer to the coast instead of further off the new england coast. Still a GREAT run. Not too shabby.....4-6 inches in mid November. No one can complain if we get even half of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 It's interesting how this time of year has been experiencing these extreme events in recent years. I found a surface pressure anomaly chart for Sandy which was down close to 10 standard deviations below normal. The chart didn't even capture the lowest pressure so the actual SD was more extreme. The October 2010 storm was close to 7 standard deviations below normal. MSLP-sd.gif Screen shot 2014-11-06 at 6.06.28 PM.png Can't leave out the October 2011 record snow. http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/archive.html?year=2011&month=10 Rare October snowstorm hammers Northeast U.S. By: Christopher C. Burt , 10:15 PM GMT on October 30, 2011 The most extraordinary October snowstorm in over two centuries in the Northeast U.S. has finally come to an end this Sunday afternoon. Not since the infamous snow hurricane of 1804 have such prodigious amounts of snow been recorded in New England and, to a lesser extent, in the mid-Atlantic states And the October 2006 event in Buffalo. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/storm101206.html Maximum Snowfall: Lake Erie 24" (Depew, Alden) Duration: 16 hours +/- Prime Feature: Dramatic crippling out of season event. Unprecedented meteorological parameters. Words cannot do justice to the astounding event which opened the 2006-07 season. It was the most unique in regards to destruction of trees and power outages, directly because of its out of season factor. Almost a million residents of the Niagara Frontier lost power, some for as long as a week, and tree damage was the worst in memory, especially to the lush vegetation in the many historic parkways and parks in the Buffalo area. Nov 7th 2012 one week after Sandy, the Son of Sandy Nor'easter dropped record amounts of snow along many of Sandy's hardest hit Jersey shore towns. The 13" that fell here caused more tree damage than Sandy and extended power outages for several more days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Dsnow, talk about an over-running and big time snow event according to the NAVGEM. to be its the NAVGEM lol. Fun to look at -- look at the ridge out west -- but yeah it's the NAVGEM. In slightly less unrealistic modeling data, the GEFS has a pretty nice signal days 7-10. http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/dougsimo/GEFSUSPrecip00216.gif The mean results from most of the GEFS individuals (at least the 12 that I plot -- there are actually 20 total) having some sort of storm. Some are at different times, most are a mixed bag and rain at the coast, but two or three of them have decent snows even down to the coast. http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/dougsimo/GEFSIndiesUSPrecip00180.gif http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/dougsimo/GEFSIndiesUSPrecip00192.gif http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/dougsimo/GEFSIndiesUSPrecip00204.gif http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/dougsimo/GEFSIndiesUSPrecip00216.gif http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/dougsimo/GEFSIndiesUSPrecip00228.gif http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/dougsimo/GEFSIndiesUSPrecip00240.gif http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/dougsimo/indexgefs.html Too bad my programming skills are terribly mediocre outside of plotting weather models and I can't get them to all scroll through an animation at once like weather.cod.edu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 06Z GFS - snowstorm to our south misses us for the most part http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=11&model_dd=07&model_init_hh=06&fhour=192¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 06Z GFS - snowstorm to our south misses us for the most part http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=11&model_dd=07&model_init_hh=06&fhour=192¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false That is going to be the risk in this type of set up where the second wave gets suppressed if the first low pushes the baroclinic zone too far east like we saw last week. The Euro ensemble has a more suppressed look also but it could just be smoothing among the mean missing a stronger vort. Still too early to know how this will play out. If the OP holds this solution under 120 hrs, then I will pay attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 That is going to be the risk in this type of set up where the second wave gets suppressed if the first low pushes the baroclinic zone too far east like we saw last week. The Euro ensemble has a more suppressed look also but it could just be smoothing among the mean missing a stronger vort. Still too early to know how this will play out. If the OP holds this solution under 120 hrs, then I will pay attention. get_legacy_plot-web248-20141107084619-28490-5629.gif Agreed we should get through this weekend and to monday 12z before we start taking this kind of long range threat seriously. The past couple years have shown it can snow in november but it should still be looked at as the exception not the rule Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 That is going to be the risk in this type of set up where the second wave gets suppressed if the first low pushes the baroclinic zone too far east like we saw last week. The Euro ensemble has a more suppressed look also but it could just be smoothing among the mean missing a stronger vort. Still too early to know how this will play out. If the OP holds this solution under 120 hrs, then I will pay attention. get_legacy_plot-web248-20141107084619-28490-5629.gif Most of the ensemble members don't show much for us. But the Euro control member is little further NW than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 We'll have to see if the guidance is correct with having some southern stream energy interact with the northern stream troughing toward the end of next week. I will say one thing -- the pattern and airmass provide support. So this isn't just fluff, fantasy or hype. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_6z/f180.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Agreed we should get through this weekend and to monday 12z before we start taking this kind of long range threat seriously. The past couple years have shown it can snow in november but it should still be looked at as the exception not the rule I have seen a foot of snow in OCT and APRIL in my life. Put your hand over the calender and just worry about the pattern not what day it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 We'll have to see if the guidance is correct with having some southern stream energy interact with the northern stream troughing toward the end of next week. I will say one thing -- the pattern and airmass provide support. So this isn't just fluff, fantasy or hype. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_6z/f180.gif Anthony is that you??? i agree though next weekend may look prime for our first widespread winter storm threat. Dont think we should be picking this apart till monday at the very earliest. Many nuances that could make this crap the bed fast including the baroclonic zone off the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 I have seen a foot of snow in OCT and APRIL in my life. Put your hand over the calender and just worry about the pattern not what day it. Agreed i really meant to say keep your expectations tempered at this point, is it possible we see a notable snowstorm next week? Yea but we have to remain reasonable at this forecasting range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 ET Nuri beginning to rapidy intensify as it phases with the low to the NW: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 The 12z GFS is handeling the energy much differently today than this time yesterday, especially with regards to the PV out west. The first little event around the day 4-5 time frame is now so far north and weak that we receive nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 The midweek storm for next week is still southeast on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 The midweek storm for next week is still southeast on the gfs I think we have to wait for the system around day ten. That set up looks quite anomalous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 I think we have to wait for the system around day ten. That set up looks quite anomalous. Gfs is digging for gold for that system.I like the looks of that although would like to see more cold air to work with. One storm at a time though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Gfs is digging for gold for that system.I like the looks of that. What makes it look good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Gfs is digging for gold for that system.I like the looks of that.Not yet ant. Wait till monday it will get us to D 5/6 and then we can start looking the models more seriously. This is purely a pattern recognition time frame and not taking what model outcome shows seriously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 I like that feature at day X. It's too soon to talk about day X. We'll know more as we get closer. ^ all winter long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 ^ all winter long. Do you expect anything less amongst the weenies? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 First flakes / traces are likely to happen in this upcoming pattern; I agree with that. But in order to achieve accumulations, all the proverbial ducks need to be aligned perfectly. A conducive regime in December, January or February might produce a SECS, while that same pattern in November may not produce for various reasons. November of 1976 was one of the coldest Novembers on record for this area -- mean temp of 39.5F in New Brunswick -- yet only a trace of snow total. So having a major arctic outbreak certainly won't guarantee anything. We need favorable timing, strong blocking, antecedent sfc high pressure / cold air mass, and probably a Miller A low. The two most recent snowy Novembers -- 1995's late November event and 2012's early November event -- were both Miller A / southern origin surface lows. Northern stream Miller B's generally won't perform as well at this time of year due to the ML jet being too far north, and precip-type issues that arise for coastal areas during energy transfers (the warmer SST's play a role in this as well). Point being, the potential is there, but much needs to be accomplished in order to realize that potential in November. However, I'd say first flakes / trace are a virtual lock in the next couple weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 I wonder if there is a way to agree for this winter not to post the whole (it is far away, not likely going to happen, etc. for things more distant in the models). I think we are all pretty on-board with that the 240 Hours gfs isn't going to come to pass exactly as depicted. It is ok to say what the model shows and discuss it, that's what these kind of boards are for. Can we just assume that caveat is implicit in all of those posts? Just a thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 I wonder if there is a way to agree for this winter not to post the whole (it is far away, not likely going to happen, etc. for things more distant in the models). I think we are all pretty on-board with that the 240 Hours gfs isn't going to come to pass exactly as depicted. It is ok to say what the model shows and discuss it, that's what these kind of boards are for. Can we just assume that caveat is implicit in all of those posts? Just a thought. Never gonna happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Never gonna happen This is a place to discuss weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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