snywx Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Can't rule out the possibility of thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon with the extremely impressive mid-level lapse rates. With cold temps aloft, sleet or even a snow mix is possible well NW of the city, with graupel possible elsewhere. 8.gif Looks like Upton sees it as well... .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRI..AND A GUSTY CYCLONIC NW FLOW BEHIND THE LOW SHOULD PROMOTE CLOUDINESS ESPECIALLY FROM LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE QUICKLY REACHED. A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL WITH H6 TEMPS -20C TO -25 C WILL SWING ACROSS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH SCT SHOWERS AND AN ISOLD TSTM THAT COULD PRODUCE GRAUPEL GIVEN THE COLD TEMPS ALOFT. CAA MAY ALLOW FOR SNOW TO MIX IN ACROSS THE HILLS WELL NW OF NYC BY LATE DAY AS WELL. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S...HIGHEST IN NYC METRO AND ACROSS LONG ISLAND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Heavy fog in downtown Manhattan. Visibility is .25-.50 mile at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 That 500 mb anomaly was close to 7 SD below normal. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/11/01/incredible-early-season-snow-slams-the-southeast-impacts-felt-across-eastern-u-s/ Didn't the CHS NWS office say it was 12 sd below normal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Didn't the CHS NWS office say it was 12 sd below normal? That was 850 mb temp deviation. 500 mb heights were 6-7 SD's from normal. Edit - link to the relevant discussion: http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=AFDCHS&e=201411010227 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 There it is, bombing nor'easter day 8-9 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 The day 8-9 deal is legit, think we need more of a weak wave though....Long long way to go, but think we're tracking our first threat win or lose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 That was 850 mb temp deviation. 500 mb heights were 6-7 SD's from normal. Ahhhh I had a recollection fail. Thought is was 500mb heights (which makes no sense now that I think about it). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Natural gas traders were late to the party on the colder November temperatures in the forecast. fut_chart.ashx.png[/quote Crushed it. Put 2 monster trades on last week when I saw the day 15 euro ensembles . Posted that the trough had to b deeper in through the lakes. Closed one long out. Still long a spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Ahhhh I had a recollection fail. Thought is was 500mb. It's interesting how this time of year has been experiencing these extreme events in recent years. I found a surface pressure anomaly chart for Sandy which was down close to 10 standard deviations below normal. The chart didn't even capture the lowest pressure so the actual SD was more extreme. The October 2010 storm was close to 7 standard deviations below normal. Can't leave out the October 2011 record snow. http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/archive.html?year=2011&month=10 Rare October snowstorm hammers Northeast U.S. By: Christopher C. Burt , 10:15 PM GMT on October 30, 2011 The most extraordinary October snowstorm in over two centuries in the Northeast U.S. has finally come to an end this Sunday afternoon. Not since the infamous snow hurricane of 1804 have such prodigious amounts of snow been recorded in New England and, to a lesser extent, in the mid-Atlantic states And the October 2006 event in Buffalo. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/storm101206.html Maximum Snowfall: Lake Erie 24" (Depew, Alden) Duration: 16 hours +/- Prime Feature: Dramatic crippling out of season event. Unprecedented meteorological parameters. Words cannot do justice to the astounding event which opened the 2006-07 season. It was the most unique in regards to destruction of trees and power outages, directly because of its out of season factor. Almost a million residents of the Niagara Frontier lost power, some for as long as a week, and tree damage was the worst in memory, especially to the lush vegetation in the many historic parkways and parks in the Buffalo area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 There it is, bombing nor'easter day 8-9 18z GFS. you forgot the link http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014110618/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_33.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 you forgot the link http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014110618/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_33.png RAIN! this time of year it must be expected and it being an inland storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 you forgot the link http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014110618/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_33.png Why are we worried about precip type on a day 8 storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Why are we worried about precip type on a day 8 storm? We're not, we're pretty sure it'll be just one type round here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 RAIN! this time of year it must be expected and it being an inland storm Will you please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Will you please. C'mon Paul you know im just poking fun brother! btw, JB really has been pretty good thus far for the winter. 76-77 is a great analog as of right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 12z GFS has Nuri ET down to 924mb in the Bering Sea. Should be an awesome intro to Deadliest Catch this year. Nov is when King crab season begins and they start filming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 C'mon Paul you know im just poking fun brother! btw, JB really has been pretty good thus far for the winter. 76-77 is a great analog as of right now Too early IMO. 76 nov temps compare , but many times as time goes on other analogs take over. So don't look to one analog for the next 4 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 This is very unusual if it verified for Nov 14 looks more like Jan 14 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014110618/gfs_asnow_us_33.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 C'mon Paul you know im just poking fun brother! btw, JB really has been pretty good thus far for the winter. 76-77 is a great analog as of right now You realize that wasn't a very snowy winter right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 You realize that wasn't a very snowy winter right? COLD NOT THE SNOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 This is very unusual if it verified for Nov 14 looks more like Jan 14http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014110618/gfs_asnow_us_33.pngNot that I am taking that map literally ( but would b kool to see ) but when I see the EPO and AO that neg and snow in the panhandle with that kind of track. Yeh it would snow all the way to the coast considering low level cold air would b involved . Let's see long ways away. But for selfish reasons I have to root on snow for Nov 15th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Too early IMO. 76 nov temps compare , but many times as time goes on other analogs take over. So don't look to one analog for the next 4 months. agreed no two winters are exactly the same just stating the semblance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 High temps today showed the effects of the UHI ... many places had high temps occur at midnight...places that didnt radiate last night prior to midnight , had highs in the upper 50's for today while places like this station had highs closer to 50°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 It's interesting how this time of year has been experiencing these extreme events in recent years. I found a surface pressure anomaly chart for Sandy which was down close to 10 standard deviations below normal. The chart didn't even capture the lowest pressure so the actual SD was more extreme. The October 2010 storm was close to 7 standard deviations below normal. MSLP-sd.gif Screen shot 2014-11-06 at 6.06.28 PM.png Can't leave out the October 2011 record snow. http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/archive.html?year=2011&month=10 Rare October snowstorm hammers Northeast U.S. By: Christopher C. Burt , 10:15 PM GMT on October 30, 2011 The most extraordinary October snowstorm in over two centuries in the Northeast U.S. has finally come to an end this Sunday afternoon. Not since the infamous snow hurricane of 1804 have such prodigious amounts of snow been recorded in New England and, to a lesser extent, in the mid-Atlantic states And the October 2006 event in Buffalo. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/storm101206.html Maximum Snowfall: Lake Erie 24" (Depew, Alden) Duration: 16 hours +/- Prime Feature: Dramatic crippling out of season event. Unprecedented meteorological parameters. Words cannot do justice to the astounding event which opened the 2006-07 season. It was the most unique in regards to destruction of trees and power outages, directly because of its out of season factor. Almost a million residents of the Niagara Frontier lost power, some for as long as a week, and tree damage was the worst in memory, especially to the lush vegetation in the many historic parkways and parks in the Buffalo area. Yea I won't forget that Buffalo area event. The pictures of the tree damage is what sticks out in my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Yea I won't forget that Buffalo area event. The pictures of the tree damage is what sticks out in my mind. My entire family lives in Buffalo and they all described the same thing, near constant cracking and crashing from tree branches snapping all night long. My grandmother calls it "the night the trees wept". I think in all the city lost 90% of its trees (tens of thousands). Eight years later, I read recently that they are close to replacing most of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Can't rule out the possibility of thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon with the extremely impressive mid-level lapse rates. With cold temps aloft, sleet or even a snow mix is possible well NW of the city, with graupel possible elsewhere. 8.gif The 0z NAM also has TTs in 50s and steep low-level lapse rates tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Surprised no one posted the 18z parallel gfs..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 0Z gfs still has the storm for mid month but its south and east. Our area does get hit with an inverted trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 0Z gfs still has the storm for mid month but its south and east. Our area does get hit with an inverted trough.great sign for a snowstorm around here. Especially if it hits during the nightime hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 00z GGEM out to sea. Also, the new GFS parallel is OTS and south of the regular one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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