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November 2014

Rtd208

By Rtd208,
in New York City Metro

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Posted
Posted

When I was still dating my wife I remember going to her folks house in Norwalk CT and the ground was covered with snow.  We got married in '03 and started dating in '00 - so there was a November snow some where in those 3 years too.  Not on gobbler day itself but a few before.

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

It will interesting to see if the the Nuri ET can break the record for lowest pressure in the Bering Sea.

We'll probably have to wait a few more days to get a handle on how strong it pumps the ridge

out west and the details of the following trough amplification in the east.

 

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
413 PM AKST WED NOV 5 2014

TODAY...NURI IS LOCATED ABOUT 480 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH OF YOKOSUKA
JAPAN. THE CYCLONE WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC LATE
THURSDAY AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WESTERN BERING SEA. AS THIS
HAPPENS...THE LOW WILL UNDERGO A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION.
CURRENT FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WITH
THIS SYSTEM DROPS FROM AROUND 970 MB LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...TO
BETWEEN 918 TO 922 MB LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD CREATE A
SIGNIFICANT EVENT AS THE CURRENT RECORD LOWEST PRESSURE OBSERVED
IN THE BERING SEA IS 925 MB MEASURED AT DUTCH HARBOR ON OCTOBER 25
1977.

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Weathergun

Weathergun

Posted
Posted

It will interesting to see if the the Nuri ET can break the record for lowest pressure in the Bering Sea.

We'll probably have to wait a few more days to get a handle on how strong it pumps the ridge

out west and the details of the following trough amplification in the east.

 

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK

413 PM AKST WED NOV 5 2014

TODAY...NURI IS LOCATED ABOUT 480 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH OF YOKOSUKA

JAPAN. THE CYCLONE WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC LATE

THURSDAY AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WESTERN BERING SEA. AS THIS

HAPPENS...THE LOW WILL UNDERGO A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION.

CURRENT FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WITH

THIS SYSTEM DROPS FROM AROUND 970 MB LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...TO

BETWEEN 918 TO 922 MB LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD CREATE A

SIGNIFICANT EVENT AS THE CURRENT RECORD LOWEST PRESSURE OBSERVED

IN THE BERING SEA IS 925 MB MEASURED AT DUTCH HARBOR ON OCTOBER 25

1977.

 

12z GFS has Nuri ET down to 924mb in the Bering Sea.

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

Actually full-resolution has the surface pressure down to 917mb:

 

rj1vr9.jpg

 

Very interesting fall pattern in the Northern Hemisphere as that would break the previous Bering Sea record set in 1977.

The October Eurasian snow cover was just ranked second to 1976. So we kind of have a

back to the 70's theme going on right now.

 

 

Eurasia 2014 1981-2010 Normal Period of Record from 11-1966 Month Area Mean Departure Rank Maximum (Year) Minimum (Year) 10 14,140 9,497 4,642 2/47 17,218 (1976) 5,578 (1988)

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Yanksfan

Yanksfan

Posted
Posted

Very interesting fall pattern in the Northern Hemisphere as that would break the previous Bering Sea record set in 1977.

The October Eurasian snow cover was just ranked second to 1976. So we kind of have a

back to the 70's theme going on right now.

 

 

Eurasia 2014 1981-2010 Normal Period of Record from 11-1966 Month Area Mean Departure Rank Maximum (Year) Minimum (Year) 10 14,140 9,497 4,642 2/47 17,218 (1976) 5,578 (1988)

Also, don't forget the record breaking 500mb low in South Carolina just last week.  This is the third extreme weather anomaly this fall. Kind of makes you wonder what old man winter has in store for us. :whistle:  :mapsnow:

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REDMK6GLI

REDMK6GLI

Posted
Posted

Also, don't forget the record breaking 500mb low in South Carolina just last week. This is the third extreme weather anomaly this fall. Kind of makes you wonder what old man winter has in store for us. :whistle::mapsnow:

I mean if they're is a winter that could rival the great 76-77 or 77-78 this has to be it. Its just speculation at this point but if your a winter weather weenie you just have to be excited for the cold and snow threats this winter. Weak el nino, -AO, -NAO, +PNA and -EPO if that all works out we will be very happy by the end of this winter. Im keeping my expectations tempered though for now ;)

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

Also, don't forget the record breaking 500mb low in South Carolina just last week.  This is the third extreme weather anomaly this fall. Kind of makes you wonder what old man winter has in store for us. :whistle:  :mapsnow:

 

That 500 mb anomaly was close to 7 SD below normal.

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/11/01/incredible-early-season-snow-slams-the-southeast-impacts-felt-across-eastern-u-s/

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Yanksfan

Yanksfan

Posted
Posted

I mean if they're is a winter that could rival the great 76-77 or 77-78 this has to be it. Its just speculation at this point but if your a winter weather weenie you just have to be excited for the cold and snow threats this winter. Weak el nino, -AO, -NAO, +PNA and -EPO if that all works out we will be very happy by the end of this winter. Im keeping my expectations tempered though for now ;)

I agree 100%. I'm as big of a snow weenie as one can be. You can have a textbook pattern locked in all winter, yet it doesn't guarantee results. Weather is not an exact science; we use models for guidance which can be maddening at times, and listen to our well respected mets in our forum. When the first HECS shows up on the models this winter, I'll be doing a lot of late nighters just like everyone else in this forum. This can be a very frustrating hobby at times, along with very good ones. Here's to hope that we have a winter to remember. :snowing:

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SnoSki14

SnoSki14

Posted
Posted

I just hope expectations are still kept in check despite all this hype thus far. Just some things to keep in mind.

 

Patience: No need to panic if it's mid December and we haven't had a snowstorm yet. These things take time and eventually a favorable pattern will often produce (see Boxing Day). 

 

Inland Cutters: No matter how cold or snowy the winter forecast is these events will always happen in any winter so one can't freak out about them or get pissed off when they happen. Sometimes cutters are actually essential in setting up a future snowstorm or laying down the cold for future snows. 

 

Climo: Keep in mind the average climo for snows and temps and don't go overboard. Even if the city and surrounding areas get "only" 40" doesn't mean it's a disaster. In fact a 40" winter after last winter would be considered a huge success in any year and well above normal given averages in the mid to upper 20s for snows. Also although snowfall years like in the 70s, 02/03 and 96/96 are possible doesn't mean they'll happen and those anomalies are still considered highly unlikely in any winter. 

 

End to End Winter: We will not have cold and snow the entire winter and I don't know of any years where there wasn't a mild interlude/s at one point or another even during the 70s winters (You can prove me wrong if you'd like). January thaws are quite common even during the most severe winters and I expect a few milder periods this winter as well. These mild periods are sometimes essential in reloading a cold, snowy pattern as cold air masses can become stale over time. We saw this during February 2010 when despite all those storms the temperatures were almost always at or just over the freezing mark because while the blocking produced multiple snow events the cold air didn't get recycled so it moderated over time. 

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rcad1

rcad1

Posted
Posted

Snoski14 I had made a comment the other day about if it concerns anybody that we might go into a winter pattern so early cause as you said we will most definitely not get wall to wall cold so were going to get a relaxation of the cold at some point. Then the question becomes how long does it take the pattern to relaod if it does at all. And going into a winter pattern in mid November means the pattern relaxation would most likely happen in the heart of winter. Just wanted to see if you and others were concerned about going into a possible winter pattern in mid November?

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