WxJordan Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Here is my 2014-2015 Winter Weather forecast for the southeast United States.... Please feel free to critique the forecast, ask questions, banter, etc. As always, you can keep in touch with the latest weather forecasts, discussions, and more on my website: www.wxjordan.com. Here is the link to the forecast on my website: www.wxjordan.com/weather-forecast/2014-2015-winter-forecast/63-meteorologist-jordan-young-s-2014-2015-winter-weather-forecast VIDEO ARTICLE With meteorological winter beginning in just 34 days, it is time my 2014-2015 winter weather forecast for the Southeast United States. Meteorological winter stretches from December 1st through February 28th. Many snowstorms can occur before and especially after these dates, so my winter weather forecast will stretch from December 1st through March 31st. Seasonal forecasting requires great skills, attention to details, and yes, a little bit of luck. Numerous atmospheric oscillations, which are difficult to predict more than 2-3 weeks in advance, can complicate and ruin the best of seasonal forecasts. I have developed a unique approach to help you understand the most likely outcomes for the winter season. Winter Forecasting Probabilities Using a winter forecasting probabilities approach helps you understand the uncertainty moving into the winter weather season. This forecast will provide you with the chance of below average temperature and/or precipitation, average temperature and/or precipitation, and above average temperatures and/or precipitation. The table below will help you understand my definitions of above average, average, and below average. TEMPERATURE Greater than 2°F Above Average Between -2°F to 2°F Average Less than -2°F Below Average PRECIPITATION 2 inches Above Average (Above Average) Between 2 inches Above/Below Average (Average) 2 inches Below Average (Below Average) I started researching for my 2014-2015 winter weather forecast by looking in the Pacific Ocean. Perhaps the two most influential oscillations are located in the Pacific Ocean. ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) and the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) impact the winter weather across the United States. Both oscillations are relatively stable, meaning they do not change rapidly very often. Usually it takes months to years for these oscillations to move from one phase to another phase, so they can help to provide a baseline for winter weather forecasting. The Pacific Ocean and Its Impact on Our Winter ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) ENSO refers to the measure of sea surface temperatures off the western coast of South America compared to normal. If the temperatures are warmer than average, it is an El Nino year. If the temperatures are cooler than average, it is a La Nina year. El Nino years usually bring cooler than average temperatures to the southeast United States and above average precipitation, with everything else remaining equal. La Nina years usually bring warmer than average temperatures to the southeast United States and below average precipitation, with everything else remaining equal. Last year a weak La Nina developed; however, temperatures remained around average with assistance from other atmospheric oscillations. This year, a neutral to weak El Nino is expected to develop through the 2014-2015 winter weather season. I expect sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean to remain around the +.5°C-+.7°C mark, which is the threshold for a weak El Nino. So, ENSO appears to be favoring a cooler than average pattern and greater than average precipitation in the Southeast and mid-Atlantic United States. But, there are other oscillations to take into considerations. PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) The Pacific Decadal Oscillation is a measure of the temperatures of the water in the northern Pacific Ocean. In a positive phase, the warm waters are located in the eastern ocean, while the western ocean is cool. In a negative phase, the cool waters are located in the western ocean, while the eastern ocean is warm. The PDO affects the temperatures in the United States, and in the case of a weak El Nino, I have found it could the term that helps to determine what will happen in regards to temperature. In a positive phase of the PDO, the southeast United States expects to see below average temperatures. The PDO has remained mostly positive since March 2014, which is a chance from the past four years. The last time the PDO was even in remotely positive territory was in 2009-2010, and even then it was only marginally positive. Right now, the Pacific Ocean remains in a positive PDO phase. It is hard to determine if the positive phase of the PDO will remain. October has brought numerous areas of low pressure to this area, which will help to cool the ocean waters. If the positive or neutral phase of the PDO remains, that will favor a cooler than average winter in the southeast. Atlantic Ocean Temperatures In the Atlantic Ocean, you can notice the ring of warm waters right along the coast from the northeast to the Gulf States. There is an abundance of warm water in the Gulf of Mexico, which will help to create a strong baroclinic zone as cold Canadian air spills southward. A baroclinic zone is an area where the temperature changes rapidly. For example, a cold front is a baroclinic zone. These coastal baroclinic zones help to develop areas of low pressure rapidly, leading to rapid cyclogenesis. We will need to continue to monitor the temperatures of the Atlantic Ocean as they can also affect the Greenland block later in the winter season. Analog Years and What They Brought to the Southeast I started my search for analog years on the basis of a weak El Nino. I found five different years in which a weak El Nino was developing: 1952-1953, 1958-1959, 1979-1980, 1990-1991, and 2003-2004. I then went and found the PDO values for each of these years, and the corresponding temperatures and precipitations anomalies for these years. 1952-1953: This season resulted in warmer than average temperatures. Precipitation anomalies are not available. The PDO was strongly negative, which helped to contribute to the warmer than average temperatures. This season will be discarded as the PDO appears to remain neutral to slightly positive this season. 1958-1959: This season was cooler than average in regards to temperatures, and precipitation anomalies are not available. The PDO was positive during this year, which helped to contribute to the cooler than average temperatures. 1979-1980: This season was cooler than average in regards to temperatures, and precipitation was less than average. There was a major winter storm on March 1st. The PDO was positive and went neutral, similar to what could happen this season. 1990-1991: This season was warmer than average, with above average precipitation. This season featured a negative PDO. 2003-2004: This season was cooler than average in regards to temperature, with below average precipitation. The PDO was neutral to slightly negative during this time frame. Many areas received above average snow due to a major winter storm in February of that year that dropped over a foot of snow in Charlotte, NC. There was numerous winter weather events in the southeast in 2003-2004, and many areas received above average snow. The three closest analog seasons that I used to help develop this forecast is 2003-2004, 1979-1980, and 1958-1959. Eurasia Snowfall in October It has been well noted that snowfall in Eurasia in October can affect the Arctic Oscillation, which is very important in forecasting winter weather in the United States. Judah Cohen and Justin Jones published an article explaining how the increase of October snowfall in Eurasia can affect the weather in the United States. The article was published in 2011 and is entitled: “A new index for more accurate winter predictions”. This is a very good read, and I suggest anyone interested in winter predictions should read it. Snow cover so far in Eurasia has grew at a very high rate, and is modeled to continue to grow at a very high rate. If this trend continues, this could help to lead to a negative Arctic Oscillation, which would help to drive cold air southward into the eastern United States. Oscillation Forecasting It is very difficult to forecast the PNA (Pacific North America Oscillation) and the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) more than a few weeks in advance. Right now the NAO is weakly positive and the PNA is neutral trending negative. Since July, the NAO has fluctuated between positive and negative phases. The PNA has remained mostly positive since July. The Arctic Oscillation is also important in helping to push cold air southward into the southeast United States. In two of the three analog years that I used, the Arctic Oscillation went from a positive phase in December to a negative phase in January. I expect a similar trend this year, as the AO should move into a negative phase towards the middle to late December timeframe, leading to a cool January and February. I will keep you updated through the winter season on the oscillations and how they will continue to impact the weather in the southeast. 2014-2015 Winter Weather Forecast So, here is my 2014-2015 winter weather forecast. I take the unique approach by issuing probabilities of what to expect in your area. So, I believe there will be below average temperatures through the winter, and I expect above average precipitation from I-95 northward due to an active southern jet stream. Forecast Probabilities by Locations North Carolina Charlotte Temperature 10% Above Average 30% Average 60% Below Average Precipitation 35% Above Average 40% Average 25% Below Average Boone Temperature 5% Above Average 20% Average 75% Below Average Precipitation 35% Above Average 40% Average 25% Below Average Raleigh Temperature 15% Above Average 35% Average 50% Below Average Precipitation 50% Above Average 30% Average 20% Below Average Hickory Temperature 10% Above Average 25% Average 65% Below Average Precipitation 35% Above Average 40% Average 25% Below Average South Carolina Greenville-Spartanburg Temperature 15% Above Average 35% Average 50% Below Average Precipitation 35% Above Average 40% Average 25% Below Average Columbia Temperature 15% Above Average 40% Average 55% Below Average Precipitation 45% Above Average 40% Average 15% Below Average Charleston Temperature 25% Above Average 35% Average 40% Below Average Precipitation 60% Above Average 25% Average 15% Below Average Georgia Atlanta Temperature 15% Above Average 25% Average 60% Below Average Precipitation 40% Above Average 40% Average 20% Below Average Augusta Temperature 20% Above Average 30% Average 50% Below Average Precipitation 40% Above Average 40% Average 20% Below Average Macon Temperature 25% Above Average 35% Average 40% Below Average Precipitation 45% Above Average 35% Average 20% Below Average How does this translate to snow totals? I expect above average snow totals for a large portion of the southeast United States. Some mountain communities could see 10-20+ inches above average snow totals this year. For many areas outside the mountains, I expect 100-125% of normal snowfall this year. Ice could become an issue this year. The dominate storm track may be just to our west, resulting in cold air damming events and leading to an increased chance of ice storms through the southeast United States. December is expected to be the mildest month of the winter season. Based on my research, I have found El Nino winters usually start out mild, and it appears the NAO could be in a positive phase, helping to lead to a mild December. By January and February, I expect numerous chances of snow through the southeast United States. This is when I expect winter to be at its worst, with temperatures remaining below average. This will lead to a good chance of winter storms through this period. The wild cards always remain, which are the NAO and PNA. These two oscillations can radically change the ultimate outcome of the weather in the southeast United States. We saw an example of this in 2010-2011 when the NAO was strongly negative, leading to a very cold December and January. Both of these oscillations can radically change the forecast for the winter season. Snowfall is always difficult to forecast, as moisture and cold air has to meet at the same time in the southeast. My forecasts are the most likely outcomes for this winter. As with any other long range forecasts, unseen variables can affect the eventual outcome of the forecasts. For this reason, I will be issuing winter weather updates each Monday Night through the upcoming winter weather season. The updates will help you to understand what is occurring with the oscillations, current model trends, and monitoring any future winter storms. This forecast was developed and provided by Meteorologist Jordan Young of WxJordan. Jordan graduated from the University of North Carolina Asheville in December 2013 with a Bachelor of Science in Atmospheric Science. Jordan launched WxJordan in May 2013, covering the southeast United States. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 I like your forecast... I notice you have the spine of the Apps at potentially 150% of normal...is that with the idea that northwest flow events could be frequent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Very thorough and informative write up! One of the best I have read to date! Even if I am in ONLY the 100-125% of normal! Well done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Here is my 2014-2015 Winter Weather forecast for the southeast United States.... Please feel free to critique the forecast, ask questions, banter, etc. Very nice writeup. Much appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Good write up but I'm forever confused why people outside of Charlotte seem to refuse to acknowledge that it's one of the largest cities in the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Very nice forecast Jordan and I hope it verifies I'm not just saying that because you showed CAE some either EDIT: this was my 5,000 post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Great write up Jordan! I have a similar question as Marion about the mountains and increased snowfall. Looks like NWFS along the spine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted October 28, 2014 Author Share Posted October 28, 2014 Yes, the higher snow totals in the mountains will be due to northwest snowfall. As we all know, when storms are strengthening moving up the eastern seaboard, rap around snow and northwest flow can drop a lot of snow in the mountains of North Carolina. Also, with the amount of cold air that I am forecasting to be around, I expect this area to see the best chance of well above average snow. This should be a very good winter in the mountain with NWSF and coastal lows this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Great write up! Thanks for posting it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Great write up but not looking forward to the mild December. I guess I will be wearing shorts on Christmas. Was kinda hoping we would see a repeat of Dec 09. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted October 28, 2014 Author Share Posted October 28, 2014 Great write up but not looking forward to the mild December. I guess I will be wearing shorts on Christmas. Was kinda hoping we would see a repeat of Dec 09. I went with a mild December; however, there are scenarios for a cool December. It is very hard to say without knowing how the NAO, AO, and PNA will be. December is the month in which I have the least confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Great write up but not looking forward to the mild December. I guess I will be wearing shorts on Christmas. Was kinda hoping we would see a repeat of Dec 09.The last time I wore shorts on Christmas , it was Christmas of 1987, two weeks later, I had 16 inches of snow on the ground! I am willing to sacrifice a warm Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 The last time I wore shorts on Christmas , it was Christmas of 1987, two weeks later, I had 16 inches of snow on the ground! I am willing to sacrifice a warm Christmas honestly the month that I would most like to see snow and cold in December. There's just something magical about cold and snow in December around Christmas time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Don't know about ya'll but I am really looking forward to this winter...some things are lining up to potentially make it very memorable, at least IMO... The High Country are due for some big time NWFS...however I think we would all agree to do without the sub-zero temps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted October 28, 2014 Author Share Posted October 28, 2014 Don't know about ya'll but I am really looking forward to this winter...some things are lining up to potentially make it very memorable, at least IMO... The High Country are due for some big time NWFS...however I think we would all agree to do without the sub-zero temps... The number one reason I believe Northwest Flow Snow will pick up this season is because I graduated in December from UNC-Asheville. During my two winters at UNCA, we had a whopping 2 or 3 inches from 2011-2013. Then, I graduated and we had the good snow storm in February (I believe it was Feb). I told Professor Miller (who studies NWFS) that the curse is now over since I have left and winter storms should increase in number once again... So, this was a heavy factor in my forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 This should be a very good winter in the mountain with NWSF and coastal lows this year. Lets hope so. Because if not, NWSF will quickly change to NSFW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Well done, Jordan. Thanks for sharing your thoughts and research with us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Lets hope so. Because if not, NWSF will quickly change to NSFW.I'm only 11/2-2 hours away from any NWSF event so one way or the other, I will see snow this winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Yes, the higher snow totals in the mountains will be due to northwest snowfall. As we all know, when storms are strengthening moving up the eastern seaboard, rap around snow and northwest flow can drop a lot of snow in the mountains of North Carolina. Also, with the amount of cold air that I am forecasting to be around, I expect this area to see the best chance of well above average snow. This should be a very good winter in the mountain with NWSF and coastal lows this year. Thanks for the response Jordan and I agree about the NWSF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Good write-up Jordan. I hope you're right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoDa-wx Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 good write up, I did notice one thing that seems confusing The Pacific Decadal Oscillation is a measure of the temperatures of the water in the northern Pacific Ocean. In a positive phase, the warm waters are located in the eastern ocean, while the western ocean is cool. In a negative phase, the cool waters are located in the western ocean, while the eastern ocean is warm. is this not saying the same thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MamaJen Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 I rarely post, just try to read and learn. I just had to comment on this, though. Thank you so much for such a thorough, informative write up. For a total amateur like me, this was incredibly educational. I finally understand ENSO and PDO! Thank you for taking the time to write this up in a way that even people like me can understand. I'm going to love following the boards this winter and continuing to learn from all of you - and hopefully tracking a few winter storms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted October 28, 2014 Author Share Posted October 28, 2014 good write up, I did notice one thing that seems confusing is this not saying the same thing? Yes, it is the same, and yes, it is incorrect. The negative phase of the PDO would feature cool waters along the coast and warmer waters in the center of the ocean. Thanks for noticing it! I have corrected it on my website. I rarely post, just try to read and learn. I just had to comment on this, though. Thank you so much for such a thorough, informative write up. For a total amateur like me, this was incredibly educational. I finally understand ENSO and PDO! Thank you for taking the time to write this up in a way that even people like me can understand. I'm going to love following the boards this winter and continuing to learn from all of you - and hopefully tracking a few winter storms! Be sure to notice the correction to the PDO above. Thanks for the comment, and I am looking forward to a great winter season this year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Very nice forecast Jordan and I hope it verifies I'm not just saying that because you showed CAE some either EDIT: this was my 5,000 post That just means you have a big mouth....err..keyboard? But yeah, Great write up. Me thinks I'll pin it for good luck too..us ne ga/upstate/midlands need all the help we can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjunkie Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 That was really well thought out. Thanks for sharing. I hope it verifies!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Great read! Thanks!!! Just one complaint - you ignored north central Florida! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 The number one reason I believe Northwest Flow Snow will pick up this season is because I graduated in December from UNC-Asheville. During my two winters at UNCA, we had a whopping 2 or 3 inches from 2011-2013. Then, I graduated and we had the good snow storm in February (I believe it was Feb). I told Professor Miller (who studies NWFS) that the curse is now over since I have left and winter storms should increase in number once again... So, this was a heavy factor in my forecast Haha, some of older students at UNCA were getting frustrated with lackluster winters so they had this contest to see who can guess the closest to date of first 1+ inch of snow observed at KAVL Dr. Miller is a joy to learn from when it come to winter weather, that's for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Thank you for such a great and informative post. Appreciate all the effort that went into it. And I hope it's dead on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Good info WxJordan. Thanks for the read and taking the time to post it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Looks like the mountains up to DC really cash in, but I love the looks of that for my backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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